Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Why Bill Belichick is Smarter Than Anyone Else in the NFL:

The Patriots surprised many on Tuesday when the news broke that they were in serious talks with the Vikings on trading Randy Moss for a draft pick. On the surface this looks like a no-brainer for the Vikings. And really, it is a no-brainer from their side. With Sidney Rice out, they are in desperate need for a deep threat receiver. Favre has admitted that last year, when he would get in trouble, he trusted Rice enough to throw a jump ball. More often than not, Rice was able to bail his quarterback out and come down with the ball. Favre has obviously struggled without this safety blanket. Their initial target was Vincent Jackson from the Chargers, but the asking price was too high. San Diego wanted a 2nd and 3rd round pick for their disgruntled receiver. Now, two weeks later, the Vikings get a better deep threat, although he is older and they don’t have a long-term deal in place with him like they did with Jackson, for only a 3rd round pick. With the uncertainty surrounding Favre, Minnesota’s window to go after a championship is razor thin. Moss gives them a chance to win this year. Giving up a third round pick to dramatically increase your chances before it’s too late is well worth it.

From the Patriots side, it doesn’t look that great at first glance, but if you dig a little deeper, you can uncover some of Belichick’s mastery.

First, they only gave up a fourth rounder 3 years ago to get Moss from the Raiders. Granted, at the time, Moss was coming off two horrible years with Oakland and there was the possibility that he was washed up, but if you look at just the straight numbers, the Patriots made out over the entire situation. They got a record breaking year, a nearly undefeated season, 3900 yards, and 50 touchdowns in a 3+ year span. Three years seems to be about the time it takes for Moss to get disgruntled and we’ve all seen what happens when Moss isn’t happy (i.e. Oakland). So to recap, they give up a fourth round pick, get unbelievable production for three years, and get a third rounder in return just when things start to go south. Belichick at work.

However, the main argument against this trade is that it sends the message that the Patriots are giving up on this year and only worrying about the future. OK...so what? Look at their secondary. They weren’t going to win a title this year regardless of whether Moss is on the field or not. Let’s say Tom Brady has 5-6 more years in him. With the youth surrounding him now, they are going to have to wait at least one more year to make a serious run, more realistically 2 or 3 years. With the moves that the Patriots have made over the past two years, they now have the Raiders first round pick this coming draft (most likely a top 10 selection), Carolina’s second round pick (should be early in the round), and now Minnesota’s third round pick, not to mention all of their picks the entire draft (except for a seventh rounder). With the young players they have now, plus everyone they get in the draft this year, they will be in prime position for Brady to make a late career run at a couple Super Bowls, a la John Elway. I know there is still a long way to go, but Brady breaking the record and winning five Super Bowls is certainly not out of the question.

One last thing about Belichick stock-piling picks for this coming draft. With the Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations coming up this off-season, one of the main points the owners are going to demand is a new rookie pay scale. They are going to want it to start at an estimated 70% of what it is now, meaning the Patriots are going to be getting all of this young talent on the relative cheap. It’s not a coincidence that Belichick targeted this year to get all of these early round picks. There’s a reason he’s regarded as the best in the business.


To end for this week, I want to rip off Peter King once again and give the quote of the week:

Kevin Harlan, when Titans Offensive Coordinator Chuck Cecil was caught on camera giving the middle finger to the refs:

“Ohhh...And there’s the Hawaiian Peace Sign given there.”

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