Friday, April 29, 2011

This Week in the NFL




Usually the NFL draft is the starting point for "next year's" football season and the highlight of the NFL's offseason. Off the top of my head I would estimate that ESPN has about 5,489 hours of draft coverage from the Super Bowl to draft night. This year the draft was overshadowed thanks to the NFL owners who would make great Middle East dictators or 18th century plantation owners. Their well documented greed and belief that they will get their way has finally been stopped (twice) by federal judges. A quick recap, owners trying to raise the value of their franchise sold personal seat licenses for multi-year deals at a variable rate so they can raise the prices every year. Then the owners convinced local and state governments to fund their stadiums with taxpayer money and held them hostage with the threat of moving their teams. The owners still believing they could make more money but running out of external options went back to the players and tried to make them take less money then what was already agreed upon. When the players balked the owners proposed playing more games even as undeniable medical evidence proves this is a ticking time bomb. The owners still trying to increase the value of their franchises tried to take the TV contract as revenue even if no season was played. Finally, the players took the owners to court over the TV contract and unsurprisingly the federal court shot down the owners attempt to take the TV money. Like a crack addict that has to get their next fix, the owners then locked out the players arguing that the system that they agreed to and made billions on was no longer sustainable. Like a little kid who didn't get his way the owners took their balls and tees and went home. Again the players went to court and again unsurprisingly a federal judge sided with the players and wrote a stinging report ending the owner's lockout and telling them to get back to business. The owners threatened to appeal (once you go all in with a bluff, get called and lose, regroup don't keep chasing) and commish Roger Goodell has had the "pure arrogance, how dare you question me" face and attitude all week patented by Tiger Woods. The Federal system of justice putting billionaire greedy NFL owners and their hand-picked commish in their place makes me want to start a rousing USA! USA! USA! Chant. With that in mind and the federal courts ruling to get back to business below is a recap of round 1 of the draft held Thursday night and lasting longer than the royal weeding.




1) Carolina: C. Newton QB Auburn: There is no denying his talent and his college career, but there are questions about his ability to adapt to the pro game and his character. I loved watching him in college and I hope he makes it big (I would set his odds at 40/60), but this isn't an ideal situation since he will be forced to play early in his career. Carolina has now spent 2 of their last 3 top picks on QB's, never a good ratio for a team and an indication they will be picking high again next year.




2) Denver: V. Miller DE Texas A&M: So a team that was worst against the run last season (4.5 ypc) drafts a speed rush end to pair with oft injured Elvis Dumervil in a draft deep on run stuffing defensive lineman?




3) Buffalo: M. Dareus DT Alabama: They probably needed OL help more, but it is virtually impossible to trade a top 5 pick, so they went with a versatile D lineman who played for Nick Saban. Seems like a safe hard to argue with decision.




4) Cincy: AJ Green WR Georgia: He should replace Ochocinco and TO's production without all of their antics, his biggest challenge will be convincing Carson Palmer not to retire. If I am Palmer I am re-reading Jake Plummer's SI article on retirement and wishing Green well while I kick my feet up.




5) Arizona: P. Peterson CB LSU: Good decision to stay away from a QB in this spot since they are all vastly over-rated in this draft. In Peterson they get a phenomenal athlete who will be a high quality DB for a decade and help immediately in the return game. My vote for best pick of the top 10.




6) Atlanta (in a trade w/ Clev.): J. Jones WR Alabama: The first true shocker as Atlanta is going all in by giving their entire draft for Jones. Cleveland switches 1st with Atlanta and gets 2nd and 4th round picks this year along with 1st and 4th next year. I like Jones pairing up with White, but I don't think anyone outside of Atlanta's war room likes him that much.




7) San Fran: A. Smith DE Missouri: Maybe Jim Harbaugh knows something we don't or maybe he is tanking to get Andrew Luck next season. Either way I am always backing Harbaugh's decisions.




8) Tennessee: J. Locker QB Washington: The biggest shocker of round 1, Locker looked to play himself into the second round after his senior season, but this shows that you only need one team to like you to make it big. Just as athletic as Vince Young, I tend to think he is headed for the same career arc minus the strip club incident.




9) Dallas: T. Smith OT USC: Can't argue with the need, but in a first round without Al Davis I thought Jerry Jones might make a bigger splash. More of a finesse lineman, I wouldn't consider that much of a compliment.




10) Jacksonville (in a trade w/ Wash): B. Gabbert Missouri: Gabbert seemed to shoot up draft boards after his was done playing for Missouri and was working out in shorts. For my money the most overrated player in the draft, he has a tendency to throw drive and game killing INT's, the Skins must have come to this conclusion after watching the Nebraska and Iowa games as well.




11) Houston: JJ Watt DE Wiscy: Love the player, don't like the pick. Houston needs DB help more than any team in the league and Amukamara was still on the board. Watt is a solid DE, but more a run stopper than pass rusher and Houston's opponents threw the ball against them more than any other team in the league.




12) Minnesota: C. Ponder QB FSU: Classic case of the draft overvaluing QB's and then teams getting nervous when they get selected. These four QB's don't deserve to be in the top 12 especially with Dalton, Mallett, and Kapernick still on the board in the second round. Jackson + Webb + Ponder = 0 NFL's QB's for Minny and a back breaking workload for AP.




13) Detroit: N. Fairley DT Auburn: Wasn't this guy in the top 5 a week ago? He dominated Alabama and the BCS title game last season, and will flourish under Jim Schwartz and next to Suh. Slightly different draft strategy than when Matt Millen was making the picks in Detroit.




14) St. Louis: R. Quinn DE UNC: If he is as good as advertised St. Louis is on their way to very good defensive line, hard to give a solid opinion when he was suspended all football season at the University of New free Cars for all Athletes (UNC).




15) Miami: M. Pouncey C FLA: Chad Henne can breathe a sigh of relief, not only does Miami get an offensive lineman, but they don't take Dalton (my favorite QB in this draft). I like Joel Anthony's chances of winning Finals MVP more than the Phins winning a Super Bowl with Henne.




16) Wash (trade w/ Jax): R. Kerrigan DE Purdue: I like the Shanahan influence, trade down for more picks, avoid the overrated QB's and pick a DE to combine with Orakpo.




17) NE: Nate Solder OT Colorado: Both Dallas and NE take tackles 8 picks apart in the first round; I would say Solder is a -500 favorite to be the better player based on those two organizations war rooms. I miss the Raiders and Al Davis' selection, this was the pick they gave up for Seymour.




18) San Diego: C. Liuget DT Illinois: Solid pick, this guy is explosive, 17 tackles behind the line of scrimmage, 10 QB hurries, 6 passes batted down, and he just turned 21. That was my Mel Kiper impersonation.




19) NYG: P. Amukamara: Getting the second best cover man in the draft at pick #19 is a steal. The Giants got the biggest value in the first round.




20) Tampa: A. Clayborn DE Iowa: Continues the theme of the draft, defensive lineman, 12 will be selected in the first round. Watt was the only DE I had ranked ahead of Clayborn on my big board (I always wanted to say that last sentence).




21) Cleveland (in a trade w/ Atl and then KC): P. Taylor DT Baylor: Cleveland used some of the entire Atlanta draft they got for the J. Jones spot to move up a few spots and take Taylor. Can't argue with Cleveland's strategy of loading up on picks and players who can play immediately.




22) Indy: A. Castonzo OT BC: He can step in immediately and play which is a must for Indy and their depleted line. Finally Indy stays away from slot receivers, pass rush specialists, finesse linemen, and gets a physical mauler who will be tough to play against.




23) Philly: D. Watkins G Baylor: A couple fun facts, Watkins is a former firefighter from Canada who didn't play football until junior college. He is also the second Baylor player to be drafted in the first round while Notre Dame doesn't have any.




24) NO: C. Jordan DE Cal: I can't say that I know anything about Jordan and Sean Payton didn't seem to know too much about him during his draft interview, he did mention that he was big enough (6'4" 287) to play every position on the line. Works for me.




25) Seattle: J. Carpenter G Alabama: There was a lot of talk about Dalton or Mallett at this pick, like Henne, I am sure Charlie Whitehurst took a deep breath when he heard it was a guard from Alabama.




26) KC (trade w/ Clev via Atl) J. Baldwin WR Pitt: There is no doubt that KC needs an offensive threat next to Bowe, but I was surprised they thought the player to do it was Baldwin. He is big, physical, and athletic, but he has to work on route running, consistency, and discipline. Sounds like a good summation of the Wannstedt years at Pitt along with the off field issues.




27) Baltimore: J. Smith CB Colorado: I hope they asked him his thought process if he was 1-1 with a WR in the 4th quarter of a tied playoff game on a 3rd and 15?




28) NO (trade w/ NE) M. Ingram RB Alabama: This is a sign of what RB's are now thought of in the NFL as Ingram was by far the best player on his team (3 were drafted prior to him) and he is the only RB selected in round 1. He does go to an ideal situation in NO with Sean Payton and Drew Brees.




29) Chicago: G. Carimi OT Wiscy: QB's are always overrated in the draft and tough physical not highly athletic offensive linemen are usually underrated. Carimi fits that bill and will be a welcome addition to a Bears line desperate to keep Kristin Cavalleri's finance upright.




30) NYJ: M. Wilkerson DE Temple: His is physically impressive, 6'4" 315 lbs and still runs a 4.96 40. Not only will he will play all over for the Jets, but he validates Miami's hiring of Al Golden. 2011 first round draft picks: Temple 1 player, Miami 0 players.




31) Pittsburgh: C. Heyward DE OSU: Maybe the Steelers front office refused to watch film of the Super Bowl because I don't how you could not go CB over DL after watching that game. Heyward is the son of former Pitt legend "Iron Head" so maybe it was memories of the Blue Bonnet bowl.




32) Green Bay: D. Sherrod OT Mississippi State: The way Packers GM Ted Thompson is going Sherrod will be a permanent starter in the Pro Bowl for the next decade.

Thursday, April 28, 2011

NHL conference semi's



The first round of the NHL playoffs featured three game 7's and only one sweep, so it is hard to argue with the competitiveness and drama of that round, but with only two mild upsets (5th seeded Nashville and Tampa) the second round is left with more chalk than Hubert Davis' NCAA tourney bracket. Hopefully that leads to high quality hockey and long compelling series' since there is not much value on the board.



Vancouver Canucks (-240) vs. Nashville Predators (+180): When the Canucks jumped out to a 3-0 lead over the Blackhawks it looked like the best team in hockey was ready to shed their label as playoff underachievers and get a week of rest before round 2. After two ugly losses Veniza trophy nominee Roberto Luongo was benched for Game 6 due to his poor play and general lack of mental toughness and it looked like Vancouver was headed for an epic collapse. The plane ride from Chicago back to Vancouver for Game 7 had to be quieter than a mid week afternoon home Pirate game and GM Mike Gillis attacked the officiating to take heat off his players. Remarkably the Canucks steadied the ship at home and grinded out an OT victory behind Luongo's steady play and the Kesler/Burrows duo. A half glass full approach would lead you to believe the character building 7 game series victory over Chicago will give the President's Trophy winners a renewed confidence as they make their way to the Stanley Cup finals. On the other hand, the near collapse, poor play by the Sedin twins (combined -7 for the series), lingering questions about Luongo's state of mind and play, and overall poor defensive play in round 1 could also lead to believe that the Canucks are ripe for an upset in round 2.



Even though the Nashville/Anaheim series only went 6 games it was one of the most exciting, the games were a little high scoring for Nashville's style of play, but they showed they can contend and beat a powerful offense team in the Ducks. Never underestimate the power of Carrie Underwood at all the home games, as Mike Fisher was the best forward of the series for the offensively challenged Preds. It was a little concerning that the Pred's treated their franchises first ever playoff series win like the Stanley Cup since the series' get tougher as you win and the Canucks are more powerful from A to Z than the Ducks. Once again this series the pressure will be on D' men Shea Weber, Ryan Sutter and goaltender Pekka Rinne, and if those three can be the best players in the series Nashville can advance.



Vancouver's round 1 play and playoff history makes laying almost 2/1 very unappealing and Nashville at less than 2/1 isn't great value either, but in a chalk filled second round Nashville has a punchers chance at +180.



San Jose Sharks (-115) vs. Detroit Red Wings (-115): The most evenly matched series and the favorite on the board to be the most compelling second round series. These two teams met in the same round last year as San Jose jumped out to a 3-0 series lead and won it in 5 games for easily the most significant series win in Sharks history. San Jose finished the regular season strong and passed Detroit in the standings for home ice, but unlike last season when Detroit was coming off a 7 game first round series they are fresh from a first round sweep and should have Zetterberg back for this series.



San Jose needed 6 games (3 in OT) to dispatch the pesky Kings minus Kopitar, and showed some flaws in that series beginning with goaltender Niemi who was pulled from 2 games and posted an ugly .863 save percentage. The Sharks defense was also vulnerable to the LA forecheck that got the puck deep and was a physical mismatch for the Sharks defense in the corners and in front of net. The Sharks do have as much depth up front as any team in the league, so much so that Joe Pavelski is the third line center; the Sharks also bring the regular seasons best power play to this series. Until last year the Sharks were the definition of a good regular season team that continually underachieved in the playoffs, but if they can beat the Wings two years in a row they will be making a Sean Penn like transformation from Jeff Spicoli to serious Oscar winner.



Detroit was the most impressive team in their round one sweep of Phoenix and Pavel Datsyuk was the best player in round one with 6 points and a +6 rating. The return of Zetterburg this series will allow Flippula and Helm to go back to their more comfortable 3rd line roles and will allow the Wings to test the Sharks defense with their rolling lines of puck possession forwards. The one concern in round 1 for Detroit was their penalty killing unit and they will need to stay out of the box against the lethal Sharks PP. There will always be questions about goaltender Jimmy Howard until he wins a Stanley Cup, but 4-0 with 2.15 GAA and .915 save percentage in round 1 is an impressive start to this year's campaign.



Detroit might not have home ice and lost in the same round to the same team last season, but at their current form and at even money they are a solid play even if it takes 7 games.



Washington Capitals (-190) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (+150): This postseason has been about redemption and exercising demons and no team has more storylines on those fronts than the Caps. They dispatched the Rangers in five workmanlike games, but the Rangers were easily the worst team of the 16 playoff participants and were also missing Ryan Callahan. Ovechkin and Semin continued their yo-yo like play throughout the first round, but in general the team did stick to their defensive game plan, though that might be more of a reflection on the Rangers lack of offense. The Caps should get Mike Green back this series and he will immediately help on the power play and with breakout passes out of the defensive zone. If goaltender Michael Neuvirth continues his first round play (1.38 GAA, .946 save percentage) against the more capable Lightning offense than the Caps will cruise into the conference finals.



Tampa erased a 3-1 series deficit to Pittsburgh in the first round by outscoring the Pens 13-4 in the final three and winning game seven 1-0 on the road, but like the Rangers, Pittsburgh was as offensively challenged as a Rex Grossman quarterbacked offense. Game 7 could have gone 13 periods and I still don't think the Pens had a hope of scoring thanks to an offense with leading scorer Asham and a power play that was 1-34. Unlike in that series the Capitals will generate more pressure and scoring chances and the heat will be on the Ning defensive corps and 41 year old Dwayne Roloson. Tampa has a potent power play and will need to capitalize on the chances they get when the Caps take their usual stick penalties during the series.



These division rivals know each other well and have similar styles of play, but unless Roloson dominates the battle of goaltenders I don't see the Caps losing or enough value to make the Ning a play.



Philadelphia Flyers (-160) vs. Boston Bruins (+115): The favorite on the board to be the series with the most suspensions for illegal hits. For the Flyers both Richards and Briere could have been suspended for questionable at best hits in round 1 and Bruins Lucic and Ference should have also been suspended for their head shots during round 1. Boston blew a 3-0 series lead and then a 3-0 lead in game 7 last year in the conference finals to Philly, and both teams enter round 2 lucky to be here after uneven play in round 1. The Flyers have a ton of offensive depth and led the league in 5 on 5 goals, but the questions in net remain as 3 goalies played vs. the Sabres. Pronger returned in game 6, but continues to be less than 100% due to a hand injury and the loss of Jeff Carter will make matching up against their offensive lines easier.



Boston staged their own comeback in round 1 after losing their first two games at home to Montreal and winning game 7 in OT. The Bruins winning the series without a power play goal was remarkable, but it might be more of an indication of Montreal's lack of depth and the Canadiens over reliance on 5 players and Carey Price. Tim Thomas is a major advantage in net vs. the Flyers and with a healthy Chara the Bruins, unlike the Flyers have their big defenseman who isn't afraid to play over the edge healthy.



Not enough value on either side to make this worth taking, but I like over in penalty minutes and suspensions for illegal hits in every game and the series.

Monday, April 25, 2011

NHL Playoffs

First before I get into any ranting, I would like to direct you all to a letter written by former Redskin long snapper Ethan Albright to John Madden in response to Albright being rated the worst player in the NFL for Madden 2007. Just Google Ethan Albright.

So the NHL playoffs are getting tense. Nobody can finish anyone off. The Sabres really shit the bed yesterday. They had a lead with 9 minutes left but then Scumbag Hartnell glide a puck underneath Ryan Miller.

It was a shame, Buffalo had this series, but now the liklihood that they can win a game 7 in Philly is the same as Kate Smith coming back from the dead to replace Jared as the Subway spokeswoman.

The shortlived idea of Philly being ousted in the first round got me through the Pens beating on Saturday. Now I will be forced to watch Pronger continue to look like a road cone, Danielle Briere doing his best impersonation of a European tough guy, Laviollette's goalie roulette, and Mike Richards ability to get away with being a dirt bag.




What is it about the top seed in the West in recent years. Can't seem to finish. It's like a drunk guy with a semi-overweight chick.

Chicago is playing great right now. Duncan Keith is the premier defender in the game. When Quenville lines up Kane, Toews, and Sharpe, is there a scarier line in hockey.

Dave Bolland does not lose faceoffs. How important are faceoffs in the playoffs? Just ask Jordan Staal who has won less draws than Les Averman in the first Mighty Ducks.

A 3-0 lead turning into a Game 7, Vancouver has to be worried. The Sedins are in hibernation, and Kesler is nowhere near where he left off in the regular season. All problems for Western Canada.

I don't want to bash the Pens, they still have 2 chances to close out the series, but does any team provide more of a cushion for their losses. Think about it, they don't lose 3-2 or 2-1, instead they lose 5-1 or 8-2. They get their moneys worth. There is no suspense when they lose, they allow the fans to soak it in during the 3rd period and get on with their lives before the final horn.

When a team's leading point scorer is Arron Asham and followed by Maxime Talbot, there are major issues.

Kris Letang hasn't hit the back of the net in 30 games, that is approaching Brooks Orpik territory.

Can we win a faceoff? I'm sick of harping on it, but we need to hold a roster spot for a specialist. Someone like the aforementioned Dave Bolland, who can win important draws, and quickly make a change once possession is had. Mike Zigamanis did it a few years back for us, why not find someone like that. These draws are becoming too important to lose.

Speaking of the powerplay, it was marvelous to watch the Flyers and Sabres with the extra-man. Don't get me wrong I hate both teams, but to see offensive zone possession, multiple shots on net, defensemen pinching, and actual goals, it was a thing these Pittsburgh eyes haven't seen in a long minute. How can you possibly justify a 4% powerplay conversion rate.

Is there a softer D-pairing in the league than Ben Lovejoy an Matt Niskanen? Deryk Engelland needs to be in the game tonight. He needs to clear the crease, there can't be any chip ins, or scramble plays in front of Fleury. That is what I loved most about Hal Gill, he might have been pulling a train on his back, he might not have been able to skate, shoot or pass, but one thing was for sure, noone was going to make themselves at home in front of the net. He cleared house and made sure if an opponent was going to screen Fleury, their lower back was going to pay the consequences. That's what Engelland needs to do.

We need some intensity. There needs to be a sense of hatred and/or anger from the beating they took on Saturday. Someone needs to step up and be a leader, someone needs to end this tonight and allow all the Tampa residents to renew their normal May schedules of watching Matlock and Murder She Wrote marathons.

Friday, April 22, 2011

Ranking MLB's divisions


With the NBA and NHL in the middle of competitive and mostly undecided first round playoff series', the PGA tour in the midst of their post Masters hangover, the ATP just beginning the always anticipated clay court season, and the new roommate still adjusting to life in the Hard Rock it is a great time to rank MLB's divisions from best to worst based on the first 20 games of the season.


1) NL West: The Rockies have the best record in baseball and have been a remarkable (7-1) away from Coors. The Giants have played more road games (12) than any team in the NL and the division has been helped by Arizona (4-4) and San Diego's (5-5) ability to win on the road. This division is the best in baseball with legit World Series contenders and zero nights off.


Colorado (13-5)


San Francisco (10-8)


Los Angeles (10-10)


Arizona (8-9)


San Diego (8-11)


2) AL West: A slight drop off from the NL's left coast division due to Seattle, but a division that has three of the top 9 in ERA so far this season. Pitching is a theme throughout the division, as every team has at least two potentially dominant starters even Seattle with Felix and Pineda. Every team in the division has also played more than half of their games on the road with the Angels leading the way at 8-4.


Los Angeles/Anaheim (12-7)


Texas (11-7)


Oakland (9-10)


Seattle (7-13)


3) NL East: This was my toughest call with this division slightly edging the AL East primarily due to Marlins good start, the fact that the Braves have played 12 road games, and Philly's status as World Series favorites. Washington has also looked game both at home and on the road, so even with the Mets as anchor this division is better than most.


Philadelphia (12-6)


Florida (11-6)


Washington (9-9)


Atlanta (8-12)


New York (6-13)


4) AL East: Of the five teams in this division only the Blue Jays have played less at home than on the road (8 vs. 10). The Yankees played 11 of their first 16 at home, while the Rays have played a division leading 13 home games and are still under .500 after a recent 7 game winning streak. The Red Sox and their 2-7 road record are the most disappointing team in baseball through 20 games.


New York (10-6)


Tampa (9-10)


Baltimore (8-10)


Toronto (8-10)


Boston (7-11)


5) AL Central: Easily the most surprising division in baseball through 12% of the season. The Indians (7-2) and Royals (9-5) have been jump started by great play at home, while the favorites in the division have been uneven at best. Even if Cleveland and KC don't stay on top of the division their early season play has made the division mediocre from top to bottom.


Cleveland (13-6)


Kansas City (12-7)


Detroit (9-10)


Chicago (8-11)


Minnesota (7-12)


6) NL Central: The optimistic view would be that the division is wide open and Cincy, St. Louis, and Milwaukee are all getting healthier, but in reality this is the worst division in baseball. The Reds were unable to capitalize on playing 13 of their first 19 at home and Houston and Pittsburgh are among the worst teams in baseball. The return of Bailey and Cueto in Cincy should help along with Greinke and Hart in Milwaukee and the fact that the Brewers have played (7) less home games than any team in baseball.


Cincinnati (10-9)


St. Louis (10-9)


Milwaukee (9-9)


Chicago (9-9)


Pittsburgh (8-11)


Houston (7-12)


Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Real World Check In

A day before the Real World Las Vegas gets a new cast member it is a good time to check in on the crew that continues to amaze, mostly in the "I can't believe that they would say or do that" way. So it took 6 episodes for self proclaimed bad boy Adam to get booted from the Hard Rock and join a legendary list that includes David from LA and Puck from San Fran. Unexplainably, those 6 episodes were all Adam needed to convince Nany that he was the guy she couldn't live without and he was also able to parlay those 6 hours of camera time into a spot in the new challenge season "Rivalries". All hasn't been for naught in the first 6 episodes as cast member Leroy has already bumped Ace, MJ, and "The Miz" down a spot on my list of all time favorite cast members. Also on the positive side a new cast member is a great way to shake up the inevitable "ho hum" nature of the middle of the season, new blood is always good in reality TV. Lets break these down one at time Dr. Jack Ramsey style.

When Adam got drunk at the Hark Rock's "Vanity" nightclub, broke a bottle and got into a scuffle with secruity he was given a warning by the staff that one more incident would result in being kicked out of the casino. Invariably the second incident was just as bad as the first as he had to be carried out of the club by his friends from home and in the process destroyed the suite. The second incident was no surprise to the rest of the house as Adam blantanly ignored the first warning and vowed to continue to "be himself" when out drinking at the club. The way Leroy honestly treated these incidents is what propelled him into my favorite cast member since Ace in Paris. Unlike the rest of the Real World cast that treated Adam like a toddler who didn't know what he was doing, Leroy treated his actions honestly and was the one person who wanted him kicked out of the house. Finally, a cast member that says what everyone watching is thinking and treats someone based on their words and actions (a novel concept by Real World standards). They shook hands on Adam's way out of the house and claimed nothing was personal in their realtionship.

As for the Hard Rock, I love what they did when they kicked Adam out, but why are they giving this crew free bottles in a VIP section. Who else in the real world is getting this kind of treatment, isn't the penthouse suite enough? Make this crew hit up a few other spots on the strip and some local bars and how can you say you lived in Vegas unless you take a couple trips to the El Cortez? Not being able to film at the pool, which is the Hard Rock's best feature, is also a major minus.

It will be interesting to see Adam and Leroy teamed together in the next "Challenge" installment "Rivalries". You have to hand it to MTV for listening to the public and teaming up rivals in two man teams for next season. Some interesting teams already leaked through the internet are Kenny/Wes, CT/Adam, Jenn/Mandy, Laurel/CaraMaria and the aforementioned Adam/Leroy pair. I mentioned in my previous Real World post about my belief that Leroy has "Alton like" challenge potential, but his status as a rookie and his refusal to put up with Adam's antics will be a challenge. If he can carry Adam to a couple victories in this format he will be well on his way to being a threat in every challenge.

I have to admit I laughed when Adam looked in the cameras and said once he told Nany about his troubled past that she would be all over him. When this prediction came through I immediately sent in my daughters 2028 BYU application as Nany staked her claim to "loving being in love" more than any other cast memeber ever. So this is her first experience away from her hometown and she breaks up with her long term boyfriend to find herself and then falls in love with her roommate in a matter of days (classic Real World). Their goodbye at the airport after Adam got himself kicked out off the show was a 10 on the unintentional comedy scale. Even Real World producers have a hard time making a two week hook up into Romeo/Juliet.

The promos for the cast member look promising and this is a great producers trick to inject new blood into the middle of the season. A pot stirring female cast member can only add drama to a show that was heading more towards "Friends" than past seasons of the "Real World". Just when I was thinking about jumping ship the new cast member has reeled me in for more.

Monday, April 18, 2011

Must Win

In my opinion, tonight's Game 3 between the Pens and the Bolts, is a must win for the boys from Pittsburgh. Here's my reasoning, they looked like crap on Friday night, plain and simple, they were outplayed. If they go down in the series 2-1, with another game in Tampa on Wednesday, it could be all but over.

Tampa left the 'burgh with a split; I don't think they were expecting much else. Game 1 was a fairly evenly played game, minus an 18-second brain fart from the Floridians, the game was a dead-heat.

Friday's game was different, I was there and it just didn't feel like playoff game. First off Jeff Jimerson did not perform the anthem for the second game in a row. I understand they gave a soldier the chance to sing, he played up the crowd, yada, yada, yada, but Jimerson is the go-to guy. You think the Bulls want Joakim Noah taking the last shot, NO. Their go-to guy is Rose, and the Pen's anthem guy is Jimerson. Don't mess it up. Ok so maybe I am making too big a deal out of the anthem singer, but hockey is a superstitious sport. Don't screw around with something that has been working.

Also on Friday, it seemed like the refs were conflicted when it came to whistles. Maybe it had something to do with Tampa bitching about the officiating in Game 1, or maybe it didn't. But something was weird. There were 4 penalties in the first 4 minutes. When has that ever happened. Then the whistles went silent for an extended period of time. Didn't make sense. However, silent whistles are good for the Pens though. You and I have a better chance of scoring on the PP from our computers than that group of guys do with an extra man. Even though John Stamos, Marty St. Louis, and Vinny haven't got it revved up yet, it won't be long if they are given the chances.

This is just like the Montreal series last year. The Pens aren't worked up. The Bolts are not a rival. There really isn't any bad blood, its just another game. Doesn't have that playoff intensity. Hopefully they realize that they need to hate this team. Loathe this team. Smack Malone in the nose a few times. Chop Hedman down. Break old man Roloson's hip. Do something to ignite a fire. This is where Matt Cooke would have come in handy. Who else in the league relishes the chance to stir things up more than Cooke. Without Cooke, it has to be Asham, Talbot, or Rupp who gets the juices flowing. In Game 1, Orpik's hit on Stamkos set the tone for the entire game. There was nothing like that Friday night.





The Pens need to come out early, control the puck, throw their bodies around, and find that hatred for the Lightning. If they can score first that will be a victory in itself. If Tampa get off and running, it will be like a frozen Heinz bottle, too hard to catch up.

Friday, April 15, 2011

NBA Playoff's Round 1


It is only fitting that after the NBA summer that featured "The Decision" (the worst off field move since Tiger tried to turn his local IHOP in studio 54 and OJ went to visit his ex-wife) and the best regular season in recent memory that the playoffs are the most anticipated post-season since the '93 season. It is also fitting that the NBA owners will capitalize on this success by locking out the players after the Finals since they have to change a system where they are forced to pay marginal bench guys long term multimillion dollar contracts (Travis Outlaw 5 yrs/35 million). Got to love the backwards thinking of NBA owners, I vote for the next Real World season to include 7 NBA owners instead of 7 strangers.


Unlike in the NHL, round 1 in the NBA this season is a three week long appetizer until we get the contenders matching up in round 2. Anything over one upset in the first round would be a major shock to NBA followers and to Vegas based on these series prices. You have to give the NBA credit for extending round 1 longer than the NCAA tourney so that every game can be televised, because really who doesn't want three days in OKC between games 1 and 2 of the Thunder/Nuggets series? Below are the first round matchups and prices and a case for how the underdog in every series could make it interesting.


(1) Chicago Bulls (-3000) vs. (8) Indiana Pacers (+2000): The soft underbelly of the East is the only factor keeping this year's playoffs from being the best ever and is displayed with this number. My case for the Pacers winning a game would involve having all of their fans dress up like crazy clowns for their home games since Derrick Rose admitted this week to, like Kramer, being scared of clowns. That would immediately vault the Pacers fans into company with the Mexican soccer fans who took the coffin and dead body of their friend to a home game last week. The pressure will be on Danny Granger, who called out the Bulls in the media this week to back up his talk and be the best player on the floor one night for the Pacers to have a chance. If Danny Granger is your best player you are probably destined to be swept as the 8th seed in the East every season.



(2) Miami Heat (-2000) vs. (7) Philadelphia 76ers (+1200): Another troubling sign for the East was Philly starting off 2-13, but yet being comfortably in the playoffs by Christmas. There are a lot of good candidates, but Doug Collins gets my vote for coach of the year. After watching this same group of knuckleheads all last year, he has managed to keep them focused and in their specific roles all season and they maxed out their talent. My case for them extended this series to 5/6 games would start with the coaching mismatch and the feeling that Jrue Holiday will destroy the Bibby/Chalmers duo and force LeBron into guarding the other team's PG one round earlier than planned. In Andre Iguodala and Thad Young, the 76ers have the best perimeter defenders outside of Memphis, and watching them chase around Wade and LeBron would also be interesting theater for 6 games.



(3) Boston Celtics (-380) vs. (6) New York Knicks (+300): You could have made your year if you would have bet pre trade deadline that this potential series would be the lowest number on the board in the East. There is no doubt the Celts have been playing sideways at best lately, but even as a Knicks supporter I find it hard to believe they are getting such little respect. The Knicks can keep it interesting if Melo takes over games late and they get contributions from the Billups/Douglas backcourt. If Billups or most likely Douglas can keep Rondo in his post trade funk, then the Knicks have the guns to keep up offensively. Wasn't Rondo in the discussion for best point guard in the league last season at this time? The key for the Knicks in extending and possibly winning this series will be on defense, if they can force Allen and Pierce to work for everything offensively they can win. I should know better than to expect good defense from a Mike D'antoni coached team.



(4) Orlando Magic (-530) vs. (5) Atlanta Hawks (+425): Hands down the least exciting series of the first round. The Hawks were 3-1 vs. the Magic this season, so it isn't a tuurrrrrible matchup for the Hawks until you remember that they quit on their season around MLK day. It was as hard for me to type this next sentence as is for you to read it but, Jason Collins and is ankle could be the key to this series. Collins has done a good job limiting Howard, and without Howard dominating the paint all his no-defense, stand still shooting teammates are worthless no matter how much Stan Van Gundy screams and pulls at his turtleneck. Decent case for the underdog and almost makes you forget that the Hawks quit 3 months ago.



(1) San Antonio Spurs (-400) vs. (8) Memphis Grizzlies (+320): These series odds validated Memphis' decision to tank the final two games of the regular season to match up with the Spurs. As crazy as it sounds to want to play the Spurs, this might be the year since the Spurs play a perimeter game that revolves around hitting 3's and bench play, not great translators to post season success. Memphis is the team with the dominant low post scorer and the ability to lock down defensively on the perimeter, and if Mike Conley doesn't get dominated in the battle at the point the Grizz should compete. Manu Ginobili's elbow injury has him doubtful for Game 1 and any extended absence would level the playing field even further for the scariest 8 seed in recent memory.



(2) Los Angeles Lakers (-2200) vs. (7) New Orleans Hornets (+1400): The biggest mismatch in the first round. It is troubling when you can't make a case for a team with Chris Paul, but the defending champs should have their way down low against a Hornets front line of Okafor, Landry (not a bad college duo) and Marco Bellini. Hopefully Paul can torch the Lakers point guards enough in four games to give us a preview of what lies ahead in future series' this postseason. In my biggest surprise section of the first round, I can't believe these numbers aren't at least comparable to the Bulls/Pacers series. As for this series getting the best TV slots, very unsurprising.



(3) Dallas Mavericks (-210) vs. (6) Portland Trailblazers (+175): I love the value on Portland and this would technically be an upset, but I find it harder to make a case for Dallas in this series. Dirk is the best player on either team, but I would say Portland has the next best 4. Dallas needs to play their best home games of the season to get and win a game 7 in Dallas. Portland has been a different team since the Gerald Wallace trade and can throw multiple guys at Dirk and give the improved Mavs defense a variety of tough to handle sets and personnel. Tyson Chandler has been a force for Dallas, but a healthy Marcus Camby can neutralize the center position and allow Portland to rough up Dallas over the course of the series. My one concern with the Blazers would be their inability to consistently make shots, but if any team allows you to get to the hoop it is the Mavs perimeter defenders.



(4) Oklahoma City Thunder (-215) vs. (5) Denver Nuggets (+180): Brutal draw for both of these teams, but that is life in the West. This series gets my vote for potentially best of round 1 and the one I am most excited to watch. I think OKC is poised to make a run this year, but they will be tested off the bat against a deep running team that plays very well at home. Nagging injuries to Affalo, Lawson, and Nene hurt the case against the Nuggets, but they still have ample bodies to defend and wear down Durant and Westbrook. If Affalo and Lawson are limited due to injury the spotlight will be on former Knicks Chandler and Felton to be the primarily defenders of Durant and Westbrook which takes a lot of value out of the Nuggets number.

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

NHL's Western Conference Playoff Matchups


We tracked the NHL's Western Conference Playoff picture the last couple of months by the numbers and it played out almost exactly like we thought it would, even if it took a crazy final day to come together. Dallas had the most difficult end of the season schedule, due to their amount of road games, and it took a final day road loss to Minnesota to knock them out allowing the defending Stanley Cup champion Blackhawks to back into the 8 seed. Anaheim and Nashville used favorable end of the season schedules to move up to the 4 and 5 seeds respectively while Phoenix and LA's tougher schedules moved them down to the 6th and 7th seeds. The biggest surprise since we began to track the standings was Detroit stumbling to the finish line and finishing 3rd in the conference behind the red hot Sharks. Today is the first day of the new season and everyone that is in the tournament has new life and hopes of Cup run. Below are the first round matchups of the best conference in hockey since the league emerged from the lockout.


(1) Vancouver Canucks (-205) vs. (8) Chicago Blackhawks (+175): The Canucks dominate the regular season and run away with the President's Cup and thanks to Minnesota beating Dallas on the final day of the season they have to open the playoffs with the defending champs who have beaten them in the playoffs the last two seasons. Tough break, but we will know right away if this Vancouver team is different from previous editions. The offense is well rounded with this season's emergence of Daniel Sedin and Ryan Kessler, while Max Lapierre could become extremely valuable as a 3rd line center with Manny Malholtra out indefinitely. The defense is deep and getting healthy and Luongo has had another stellar regular season between the pipes.



The Hawks have struggled to play consistent hockey all season, but still have the vital cogs from last year's Cup championship team. Toews, Kane, Hossa, Sharp, Keith, and Seabrook have proved they know how to win in the playoffs, something Vancouver's main guys have failed to prove. Chicago lost 10 players in the off-season and with them went their depth and grittiness. Most notably lost were 3rd and 4th liners like Ben Eager, Andrew Ladd, and John Madden. Corey Crawford has established himself as the team's #1 goalie, but it would be unwise to count on him to steal playoff games against the Canucks.



Chicago has the mental edge on Vancouver due to their recent history, so there is value in the +175 number, but Vancouver is too deep this season and I think they move on in 6.



(2) San Jose Sharks (-260) vs.(7) Los Angeles Kings (+220): This matchup of California teams features the biggest odds on the board, due to the Sharks recent play and the injury to LA's #1 center, Kopitar. San Jose cleared a mental hurdle last season by making it to the conference finals and looks to build on that in this year's playoffs. No team has the depth at center that the Sharks do with Thorton, Couture, and Pavelski. The Sharks also have a Stanley Cup champion goalie in Antti Niemi, thanks to Blackhawk cap problems.



The Kings haven't been the same team since Kopitar was injured; they lacked depth at center when he was healthy and now without him have struggled even more to score goals. To have a chance in this series they need to make it physical and win on special teams. Strength will meet strength when the Sharks #2 ranked power play matches up against the Kings 4th ranked PK. The Kings do have an advantage on the back end with offensive D-men in Doughty and Jack Johnson.



The Sharks are hot and the Kings are not, but if Quick can steal a game and the Kings can use the intensity of a rivalry to their advantage I like the number and the Kings to win Game 7 in San Jose.


(3) Detroit Red Wings (-200) vs.(6) Phoenix Coyotes (+170): A rematch of last year's first round series that went 7 games, but this year Detroit has the home ice advantage. Detroit looked to be back to their dominating ways until clinching the Central and playing under .500 hockey for the last 15 games. The Red Wings still have the kind of depth that is the envy of most teams and a puck possession system that makes opponents play primarily in their own end. Zetterburg looks poised to return for the playoff opener and matching up against a team that they beat in round 1 last year is favorable. Until Jimmy Howard wins a cup he will be a question mark and the Wings have been sloppy in their own end all season, Lidstrom has been solid offensively, but was a minus player during the regular season.


The Coyotes have been a resilent team this year with a roster full of guys who have scored clutch goals, even though they don't have a single 20 goal scorer. Keith Yandle is the best young offensive D-man in the game and Ilya Bryzgalov is as good as it gets when facing a ton of rubber. Phoenix has three lines that forecheck well and they could find some holes in Detroit's defense. Dave Tippett has this squad in the playoffs for a surprising second straight year, but the franchise is still looking for their first series win since the Winnipeg days.


Phoenix needs Bryzgalov to be the best player in this series and they need to win a couple of ugly games, but a matchup with Detroit for the second straight years screams trouble even at the price. You aren't going to get rich betting against the Wings in the first round of the playoffs and that is a lesson I have learned the hard way.


(4) Anaheim Ducks (-135) vs.(5) Nashville Predators (+115): My favorite first round series, a matchup of the most explosive offensive line in the game Anaheim (Perry, Getzlaf, Ryan) and the only 50 goal scorer in the NHL (Perry) vs. the best pair of D-men in the game in Nashville's Weber and Suter. Anaheim not only survived injuries to Getzlaf and goaltender Hiller, but they have thrived thanks to Norris candiate Lubomir Visnovsky on D and the revolving door of Emory and Dan Ellis in place of Hiller. Anaheim has come into the playoffs on quite a roll and if they can continue to get secondary scoring and quality play in net they could do major damage past round 1.


Nashville continues to impress every regular season with their ability to outwork opponents on a night to night basis and win from the net forward. The Preds would love to win every game 1-0, but to do so they will have to score that elusive one goal. I admit I love they way they play and could watch Rinne in net and Weber and Suter all day, but Mike Fisher will need to improve upon his one goal, four assist, and minus 5 regular season in Nashville or this series could get out of hand quickly. Nashville tied with Vancouver for fewest goals given up in the regular season and will need to stay out of the box for that to continue against the potent Duck power play.


The odds say this should be the closest played of all the series', so there isnt much value on the board, but the contrasting styles of play make it the most anticipated series for all hockey fans. I wish I could pick both teams, but I am going with Nashville's D to win their first ever series.


Tuesday, April 12, 2011

NHL's Eastern Conf. Playoff Matchups


No sport changes more than hockey when the playoffs begin, not only does the intensity ramp up, but the actual rules change. No longer do you play a 4-4 five minute OT and then head to a shootout, no in the playoffs you keep battling full strength until one team scores the winner even if it takes all night. I like the 4-4 OT and shootouts in the regular season, because they are exciting and 82 games is already about 15 too many, but it is a dramatic change from playoff hockey. Can you imagine MLB ending tie games with a home run derby and not playing extra innings until the postseason? This time of year shootout specialists are put in the press box as the focus is on 3rd and 4th line grinders who make every shift difficult for their opponent. Today we will take a look at the Eastern conference matchups and save the Western conference for tomorrow.


(1) Washington Capitals (-215) vs. (8) New York Rangers (+185): Again this year the Caps find themselves as the top seed in the East, but unlike last year they have achieved the top spot due to their defense. High scorers Ovechkin, Semin, and Backstrom all finished with career lows in points this season as the Caps ranked 4th in the NHL in Goals Against (GAA). A dramatic change in Washington was needed after three straight playoff exits as the higher seed culminating in their loss last season to 8th seeded Montreal, but again this series all the pressure will be on the favorites. Most of that pressure will be on the shoulders of goalie Michael Neuvirth, who brings only AHL playoff experience to the net as Varlamov's replacement. The Caps will likely miss (D) Dennis Wideman for the entire series, but should have Mike Green back from a month absence with a concussion.



As for the Rangers, they held on to the last playoff spot due to the play of goalie Henrik Lundqvist, and they will need him to be the best player in the series to have a chance. The Rangers finished the season right behind the Caps ranked 5th in GAA, but have far less artillery in this fight. With Ryan Callahan out for at least this series with a broken ankle, the pressure will be on Marian Gaborik to shed his reputation as a guy who disappears in big games and score some goals. With so many 3rd and 4th liners masquerading as top 6 forwards New York could use some offense from defensemen Marc Staal and recently acquired Bryan McCabe.



The Rangers have the best goalie, so they have a chance and the price is appetizing, but I think the Caps will hold on as the series goes to 6 games.



(2) Philadelphia Flyers (-160) vs. (7) Buffalo Sabres (+140): These teams seem to find each other regularly in the postseason and this series has a chance to be as classic as some of their historically great matchups. The Flyers were the best team in the NHL until the last 25 games of the season, when they lost 16 of 25. No team has the depth the Flyers have up front with six 20 goal scorers along with 19 goal scorer Ville Leino and trade deadline pick up Kris Versteeg. Even with the best set of forwards east of Vancouver the key to the Flyers Stanley Cup hopes hinge on the health of Chris Pronger (day to day with a wrist injury) and the play in net of the Bobrovsky/Boucher combo. Quality Flyers playoff goaltending has been as hard to find as quality Chicago Bears quarterbacking, so both guys along with the defense will be under pressure if they continue their recent slide.



Buffalo has been playing playoff hockey since January and has gone 28-11-6 since their new ownership group took over. Thomas Vanek, Drew Stafford, and Tyler Ennis have stepped up their play to coincide with the loss of Derrick Roy to injury. Buffalo's defensive depth will be tested by all three of the Flyers offensive lines, but as all USA hockey fans know in Ryan Miller the Sabres have the best big game goalie in the world. Miller returned to the net this weekend after missing a week with an upper body injury and looked to be in playoff ready form. The Sabres are one of the least penalized teams in the NHL and if they can continue that trend in this series they have a great chance to frustrate the Flyers and extend the series.



I like the way Buffalo has been playing lately, while Philly has faltered, and any chance you get to take Ryan Miller as an underdog is a great opportunity. I like the Sabres in 7.



(3) Boston Bruins (-200) vs. Montreal Canadiens (+170): The most intriguing Eastern conference matchup due to the history of the franchises, their regular season series, the goalie matchup, and their contrasting styles of play. The Bruins are big and physical and will try to wear down the Canadiens over the course of the series. Boston is back as a division winner due to the play of goalie Tim Thomas, who is the favorite to win the Vezina trophy this season. The last time we saw the Bruins in the playoffs they lost to Philly after holding a 3-0 series lead, so the pressure will be on Boston for reasons other than being the higher seed. For all Zdeno Chara's skills he has never led a team to the conference finals, and he has been the favorite more times than not.



The Canadiens should have all the emotion after the fallout from the Chara hit on Pacioretty, even though they lost the rematch (7-0). Much has been made out of the lack of size of the Montreal forwards, but they have been successful in the playoffs with this group. The Canadiens also hold a major advantage in both special teams, as they are 7th in both the PP and PK while the Bruins are 16th and 20th respectively. As good as Thomas has been for the Bruins, Price has been every bit as good for Montreal and the best matchup of goalies in the first round will go a long way in determining the outcome of the series.



Montreal won the season series 4-2 and I like their playoff experience and the variety of skills from their defensemen over the bigger, but more mentally fragile Bruins. I think this series goes the distance with the Price/Subban combo winning game 7.



(4) Pittsburgh Penguins (-150) vs. Tampa Lightning (+130): Both the odds and seeds say this should be the most evenly matched series in the East. The Pens have molded themselves into a defensive team who leads the NHL in Penalty killing and relies on Marc Andre Fluery to win games. They will need timely scoring from all of their 3rd and 4th liners who are now playing top 6 minutes due to the injuries to Crosby and Malkin. The pressure will be on deadline pickups Neal and Kovalev along with Jordan Staal to keep up with a Tampa team that has more than a few offensive weapons.



It only took Tampa GM Steve Yzerman and coach Guy Boucher a season to return Tampa back to the playoffs, where a team with Stamkos, St. Louis, and Lecavalier should be every season. They have the edge in scoring depth in this series, but will be matched up against a Cup winning goalie and one of the deepest D-core in the league. The midseason pick up of Dwayne Roloson was a great under the radar move, as he proved in '06 that he was capable of carrying a team in the postseason.



This is the first postseason matchup between these two teams, a rarity in the East, but I like Fluery to be good enough in 4 of the 7 games for the Pens to advance.