I drove by the newly-dubbed “Seau’s Cliff” today. The “accident” occurred in the early hours this morning and the SUV had been towed away hours ago, but they still had one lane blocked off to handle the immense news coverage this is getting. The cliff is about 40 feet high and it’s gradual enough that if you drive over the edge, you’re tires would stay in contact with the ground the entire way until you go head first into the sand. In a large SUV, you are going to be injured, maybe even severely, but odds are pretty slim that you’re going to die. Who knows what was actually going on in Junior’s head, but it’s fun to speculate.
The glass half empty approach is that Seau hit his girlfriend around midnight. She called the cops, who came and arrested him around 1:30 am. He posted bail and on his way down the coast, saw the cliff in the moonlight and had a flashback to Thelma & Louise. And really, it would be a pretty good way to go, flooring it off a cliff. The problem in this case was that he chose the wrong cliff. Driving down what amounts to being a very steep hill with a sandy bottom is like trying to commit suicide by shooting yourself in the leg. Sure, there’s a chance you could hit an artery and bleed to death, but if you really want to go through with it, there are ways to guarantee the outcome.
The glass half full approach is that he got in an argument with his girlfriend, who, in an effort to get back at him for being too awesome, called the cops and claimed he hit her. They came to the scene and were forced to take him to the station for questioning (presumably about the 1994 AFC Championship Game.) After pictures and autographs, they released him. He decided to go for a drive down the coast so he could get some thinking done about the next logical move for his charity, when he fell asleep behind the wheel and slowly drifted over the embankment.
Odds are, the truth is somewhere in the middle. (My guess is that he was rightfully arrested and fell asleep on the way home.) But, in the spirit of Junior Seau’s exciting night, I’m going to go over some best case, worst case scenarios for the NBA season.
Knicks and Amare’s $100 million contract
Glass half-full: Amare has a great first year in Mike D’Antoni’s offense (26 ppg and 8.5 rpg) and, most importantly, stays healthy. Next offseason, they use their remaining salary cap space to sign Carmelo to a long term, similar contract and include Raymond Felton, Wilson Chandler, and a pick in a sign-and-trade with the Spurs for Tony Parker-Longoria. (I don’t think landing Chris Paul and Carmelo is realistic, although Paul would be amazing with D’Antoni.) The Knicks, starting Amare, Carmelo, Parker-Longoria, Anthony Randolph, and Toney Douglas, are rising just as the Celtics are falling, and they spend the next five years battling with the Heat for Eastern Conference supremacy in a revival of the late 90’s rivalry, only with polar opposite teams from the earlier edition.
Glass half-empty: Amare blows out his knee again in February, right about the time the Nuggets trade Carmelo to the Nets for Derrick Favors, etc. Carmelo signs a long term deal with the Nets to be the face of the new Brooklyn franchise. Chris Paul sees a gimpy Amare in Manhattan or a young, up-and-coming, Carmelo led team in Brooklyn and decides to take a small pay cut to join the latter. Amare, coming off another surgery, looks around to see Danilo Gallinari, Toney Douglas, Bill Walker, and Timofey Mozgov joining him in the starting five with no help in sight. He becomes completely disinterested and as the pressure from the New York media grows, he tries to demand a trade. Only no team wants to touch a contract like that on a disgruntled, injury prone big man who can only create if he has a good point guard with which to run the pick and roll.
The Cleveland Cavaliers
Glass half-full: I can’t come up with anything. They win the draft lottery, I guess.
Glass half-empty: Really the glass is about 99% empty. JJ Hickson and Mo Williams lead the team to the worst record in the league, but despite having the best odds, they pull the 11th pick in the draft and select Nolan Smith out of Duke.
Boston Celtics
Glass half-full: Rondo continues the transition of taking over leadership of the team, averaging a solid 17-6-9 line. Big Baby is able to keep his emotions under control and he plays well enough to let KG keep his minutes around 25 through the first 4 months of the season. The O’Neal brothers, Jermaine and Shaquille, are able to split the load while Kendrick Perkins gets healthy. When Perkins comes back after the All-Star break, Shaq fakes a toe injury to rest up for an imminent second round matchup with Orlando. Nate Robinson provides a spark off the bench and they close out the Magic at home in Game 6. In the Eastern Finals, the Heat don’t have anyone to contend with Rondo. When they try to move Wade or Lebron to him, Pierce and Ray Allen kill them and they advance to face the Lakers. Kobe goes 7 for 25 from the floor in game 7, Artest bricks a 3 in the final minute, and Shaq finally gets his revenge on Kobe, evening up the championship count at five.
Glass half-empty: Rondo’s confidence is shattered after being cut from the Team USA this summer. He has to take a leave of absence from the team to try to get his head right. In his absence, the veterans are forced to watch Nate Robinson continually take the outlet pass and pull up from 25 feet. An internet video surfaces of Shaq furiously chasing Nate in the locker room after a 20 point loss in Atlanta. The O’Neal brothers, KG, and Big Baby all go down to injuries and they are forced to re-sign Brian Scalabrine as their sixth man. Rumors swirl about Delonte West sleeping with an undisclosed teammate’s mother. Doc Rivers finally grows tired of this team and ends up broadcasting the Celtics first round loss to the Bulls.
The Big Three in Miami
Glass half-full: This one’s pretty easy. Lebron accepts the facilitator role and averages the first triple double since Oscar Robertson. Wade plays exactly the way he has played his entire career, driving the ball and taking the last shot. Chris Bosh doesn’t have to worry about creating his own points, so he learns how to play defense and focuses on rebounding, averaging an 18-11. They run through the East with ease. In the finals, Bosh and Gasol cancel each other out, Kobe is drained from guarding Wade, and Artest can’t handle Lebron going to the hoop. Heat in 6.
Glass half-empty: There aren’t enough shots to go around. Rumors begin coming out of the Heat camp about underlying animosity brewing between Lebron and Wade. The hatred from opposing fans starts to get at Lebron and he begins to think everyone except Maverick Carter is against him. He wears headphones constantly in the locker room and moves his locker next to Shavlik Randolph, to try to get away from anyone that matters. Bosh goes down to injury and they are forced to rotate a Haslem-Juwan Howard-Big Z-Jamal Mcgloire front line. Pat Reilly gets fed up with a lackluster start and replaces the player-popular Erik Spoelstra with himself. The players revolt because of the treatment to Spoelstra and the team eases it’s way to a first round defeat in a 4-5 matchup with Atlanta. (This one was fun to think about.)
Chicago Bulls
(By the way, I just looked at their roster and realized they signed Brian Scalabrine for $800,000 this year. Apparently, they felt their team was lacking a comedic factor going into the season.)
Glass half-full: Scalabrine never has to see the court. Derrick Rose parlays his Team USA experience into an MVP season. They make the right move, holding onto Deng and Noah through the trade deadline. Noah and Boozer frustrate the Heat enough to pull off a shocker in the second round. They have another epic series against the Celtics, with Rose and Rondo battling to prove which one should have truly been the point guard for the US this past summer. KG is too worn down to handle Boozer and the Bulls pull out another mild upset. Unfortunately, even in the best case scenario, I don’t think they have enough to match-up with the Lakers.
Glass half-empty: Kyle Korver goes cold and, with no one else to truly stretch defenses, opposing teams can crowd the paint to control drives from Boozer and Rose. The team panics and gives up Deng, Noah, and a couple of first rounders for Carmelo. Without Noah there to be a pest, the Celtics or Magic are able to exploit their lack of front line depth and knock them out in the first round. They are able to sign Melo to a long term deal, but with no help coming from the draft for the next two years, they are forced to rely on the development of Taj Gibson. I still would like their team over the next few years, with or without Carmelo.
I’ll go over the Western Conference sometime before the season starts. Stay tuned.
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