NBA Total Time

Even in the most anticipated NBA season in years it is hard to find a lot of value in NBA futures this year with a clear distinction between contenders and pretenders. Luckily there are always win total bets and below are the win totals for all NBA teams and some thoughts and plays. Minnesota (23.5) New Jersey (25.5) Toronto (26.5) Sacramento (27.5) The biggest lock of this group locks to be Toronto to go under, a quick scan of their roster left me wondering if 20 wins was optimistic for this group. I like DeMar DeRozan's upside and as a fantasy sleeper, but to ask him to carry the offense and make winning plays in half court sets is unrealistic at this point in his career and with his supporting cast. Minnesota is right where they belong with the lowest win total in the league and after the off-season they have had I find it very hard to believe that they will win 24 games, which would be a 9 game improvement from last season. New Jersey should be dramatically improved with new coach Avery Johnson, who is good for 10 wins on his own, and some professional vets around Devin Harris and Brook Lopez. I also think Sacramento and the over is a good play, the Kings won 25 games last year and the natural progression of Tyreke Evans should be enough for them to improve on that number. Demarcus Cousins, Carl Landry, and Jason Thompson are all big guys who can run and finish and if coach Paul Westphal can keep them all engaged the Kings could be a mild surprise this season. Cleveland (29.5) Golden State (30.5) Detroit (31.5) Detroit seems to be headed for a major roster shakeup and with both Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince on the trading block it is likely the Pistons will be counting on Tracy McGrady and Charlie Villaneuva to play heavy minutes sooner rather than later, making the under look like a very appealing play. Cleveland also seems like a natural under with the Cavs counting on Mo Williams, who was contemplating retirement after "The Decision" and a division that outside of Detroit is improved. I have no feel on Golden State as 30 wins seems about right, but I know they will be exciting all season and a prime reason to purchase the NBA live ticket. Washington (34.5) Indiana (34.5) Philadelphia (35.5) New York (35.5) LAC (36.5) This is a swing group of teams that could either take a step up to playoff contention or a step back to scouting top 5 college talent. I think Philly will be scouting college talent come February as rookie Evan Turner looks to be in over his head this year and Andre Iguodala might lead the team in rebounding as big men Elton Brand and Spencer Hawes seem more interesting in testing their range. The Knicks are one of my must plays as Stoudemire will put up major numbers in the east and Felton makes the Knicks mediocre at the point which is a major improvement from last year. It looks like Carmelo Anthony will force his way out of Denver and to New York by February at the latest which also makes the over a calculated play. The Clippers are also a team that looks poised for improvement as Blake Griffin and Chris Kaman will be a force together down low and Eric Gordon looked like a top 5 shooting guard in Turkey over the summer. This young team with coach Vinny Del Negro looks like a perfect opportunity for Baron Davis to show he is still a capable point guard when invested and that should be enough to push the Clipps over the win total and into the playoff discussion. Washington also has a bright future with young talent, but until Arenas and his team sinking personality is moved they are always going to be on the verge of trouble. 34 wins seems right for an eastern conference team with Danny Granger and Darren Collison as their two best players. Memphis (38.5) Charlotte (39.5) New Orleans (40.5) Memphis should be right around the number and I could support the over with that starting five and coach Lionel Hollins. Hopefully for Memphis Rudy Gay will continue to work after this contract and Mike Conley and O.J. Mayo form one of the quickest backcourts in the NBA. Any help from bench guys like Tony Allen, Acie Law, and Hasheem Thabeet could push the Griz to .500. Charlotte and New Orleans both look ready to take major steps back this year. Larry Brown has to be very concerned about his team with D.J. Augustin at the point and Kwame Brown, Nazr Mohammed, and DeSagana Diop playing in the middle. The Bobcats have plenty of check out guys including their coach and this roster has plenty of holes. It is hard to bet against Chris Paul, but I think he was on target questioning the Hornet's talent level this summer and by the All-Star break I suspect we will hear the same questions. Phoenix (42.5) Denver (43.5) Milwaukee (45.5) Chicago (46.5) Atlanta (46.5) Steve Nash's team has won at least 45 games in every season and though the Suns look to be down this year I think Nash will make the sum of Robin Lopez, Hedo Turkoglu, Hakim Warrick, and Josh Childress better than the individual parts. Billups will follow Carmelo out of Denver once he is traded and the Nugget's will re-build making the under a solid play. The Bucks have added talent and should continue to improve under Scott Skiles in year two; I like the over especially when you consider that they won 46 games last season. Chicago and Atlanta are interesting teams with the same total, though I think Chicago will be the more feared team come playoff time I think they will need some time to learn new coach Tom Thibodeau and for Carlos Boozer to get healthy and acclimated. Atlanta brings everyone back from a team that won 53 games last season and I think they are a better bet to go over the win total in the regular season and to flame out early come playoff time. Houston (47.5) Utah (49.5) Dallas (49.5) Portland (50.5) San Antonio (50.5) Utah made a major upgrade down low with the addition of Al Jefferson to replace Carlos Boozer and I think Deron Williams will emerge with Jefferson and Millsap and the Jazz to improve on their 53 wins from last year. Dallas has won at least 50 games in 11 straight years making this 49.5 win total very interesting for a team that looks to be past their window. San Antonio is another team that appears to be on the back nine, but youthful additions like Tiago Splitter, DeJuan Blair and George Hill are good pieces if Duncan and Ginobili are healthy. Portland and Houston are both teams that should be around 50 wins with their respective rosters, but the major question with both teams is health. The Blazers lost more many games to injury last year than any other team and if either team gets 30 games from their centers it would be a major surprise. Oklahoma City (52.5) Boston (53.5) Orlando (56.5) LAL (57.5) Miami (64.5) The Thunder won 50 games last season and are on the verge of a major breakthrough with a young team that is growing around superstar Kevin Durant. Depth in the paint and continued improvement from Westbrook and Harden make the over a must play. You have to think Kobe will be using the regular season as a chance to rest his knees and fine tune. The Lakers are not going to be afraid of road playoff games and I think that will show in their regular season win total and like Boston last year they will go under the win total in the regular season and be a force in May. Boston coasted to 50 wins last season and an improved bench should allow them to overtake Orlando as the second best team in the east this regular season. Miami will be the biggest game on their opponent's schedule every night this year and I think they will play accordingly and take a run at 70 wins. The bigger question will be if this strategy is going to hurt them in the playoffs. Wade and James have already been dinged up this pre-season and though it might be smarter to rest throughout the year I don't think the pressure that came with this off-season will allow them any nights off. For that reason I wouldn't bet against the Heat to go over the win total even if they wear themselves down in the process.