Thursday, October 14, 2010

Week 7 college football


Decent slate as the college football season is firmly entrenched in conference play with a couple of a swing games this weekend in the Big Ten. The conference had a good bowl season last year with two BCS wins and the conference looks to be heading toward mediocrity again this year which would be a giant step up after the national beat downs suffered by the conference in the better part of the last decade. In a revelation as shocking as Brett Favre admitting to marriage problems we found out that some college players actually get paid. Only this revelation would stun the NCAA who wants to continue to make millions off of these kids while they get nothing. Don't try selling the "free education" line as these players want as much to do with school as Bud Selig does instant replay. Pay them or create a feeder league where players who don't want to go to college can play for pay and go from there to the NFL. Obviously this feeder league would turn the college game into a club sport and the NCAA would lose their golden ticket while the NFL would lose their de facto free minor league, making this idea implausible so the "amateur" charade continues. On that note below are the plays for this week and the road map for how some "friends of illbefrank" can bankrupt the Monte Carlo this weekend.


Illinois @ Mich. St. (-7): There has been no more impressive team in the Big-10 this year than Mich. St. who can beat you on the ground or in the air. Illinois is coming off a steamrolling of PSU on the road where they dominated the game on the ground. The Illinois offense is up against a tough matchup in the Mich. St. defense who has proven you will not be able to just the run the ball against them to have success. Mich. St. LB's Greg Jones and Eric Gordon will stop the run and force Illinois QB Nathan Scheelhaase into obvious throwing downs. That is a bad formula for Ron Zook's team during the second of back to back road games making MSU -7 the play.


Iowa (-3.5) @ Michigan: Watching Michigan last week I was left with the same question I have after watching any Kate Hudson/Matthew McConaughey flick; haven't I seen this movie before? Michigan gets out off to a good start with a favorable schedule and high octane offense led by a Heisman trophy candidate and then Big Ten play proves they can't win consistently with a defense only Don Nelson could love. Iowa will pound the ball with RB Adam Robinson and Michigan will need all 11 and more to slow down him down. Michigan QB Denard Robinson is exciting and will make a few plays, but Iowa with the best D line in the nation will stymie the spread and leave Robinson banged up and Rich Rod shaking his head making Iowa -3.5 the play.


Texas @ Nebraska (-9.5): Texas coming off a loss to Oklahoma and a bye week would seem like a lock against most teams in most years, but Nebraska with QB Taylor Martinez and the revived "Blackshirts" are not most teams. Nebraska will be looking to make a national statement as a team that should be included in the national championship discussion and for revenge after last year's Big 12 title game. The college game is all about QB play and Nebraska has a huge advantage in Taylor Martinez who should have a big game vs. a Texas defense that has had big problems against the run all season. Texas should keep it close in the first half, but I expect Martinez to break some long runs and the Nebraska defense to harass Texas QB Blaine Gabbart into some game killing mistakes. 9.5 seems like a lot of points today, but Nebraska is the play as they will make a statement Saturday on their way to contending for the title.


Arkansas @ Auburn (-4): For my money the most interesting game of the weekend in the now wide open SEC West. Auburn QB Cam Newton has replaced Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett as the Heisman hopeful due to his ability to deliver in the clutch. Newton has led Auburn to comeback 3 point victories against Clemson, South Carolina, and Kentucky to keep the Tigers undefeated and in the process has made up for his team's defensive weaknesses. Meanwhile, Arkansas has not scored a point in the fourth quarter of a game since beating Georgia almost a month ago, but only has the one loss vs. Bama. Mallett should have every opportunity for a big game against the Auburn secondary that has made average quarterbacks look like NFL first rounders this year. Auburn has been living on the edge all season and I think we are about to find out if this is a team of destiny or a team whose defense is so bad that every game will be an adventure. I wouldn't take Arkansas on the money line, but they are the play +4 with Auburn's recent history.


Ohio State (-4) @ Wiscy: A home dog at night in this rivalry looks to be a solid bet until you ask yourself the question; What has Wiscy done all year that would make you think they are capable of beating a good team? The vaunted running game and O-line have looked average for most of the season and below average in the loss to Mich. St. and 1 point victory vs. Arizona State. Ohio State seems to make enough plays to beat Big Ten teams year in and year out under Jim Tressel and this game looks to be right in his comfort zone. A defensive or special teams score could swing this low scoring game and I think OSU is more capable of both and Wiscy's body of work has left be unable to find the courage to make them the play.


Ok St @ Texas Tech (-3.5): When you are riding shotgun on the Kendall Hunter train you don't jump off in the middle of the ride.


Missouri @ Texas A&M (-3.5): Doesn't A&M QB Jerrod Johnson deserve better? Didn't we say the same thing about Josh Freeman a couple years ago? That is the reason to believe better days are ahead.


Miss St. @ Florida (-7.5): It just seems poetic if former OC Dan Mullen puts the stake in this Florida team.


No comments:

Post a Comment