Wednesday, March 30, 2011

MLB Totals


Nothing makes the dog days of summer and the sports calendar more interesting than a couple of MLB win total, and division bets. With opening day for all clubs right around the corner, now is a great time to find this year's San Francisco Giants, so below are the win totals for every team by division along with division odds and league and World Series odds. As all illbefrank followers know, we had the Giants in March last year, but as all Saints' fans know it is even harder to repeat. Win totals, division odds, pennant odds, and World Series odds in ( ) for each team.


NL East: Philadelphia (97) (-300) (Even)(+300): There isn't going to be much value in a team that lost the NLCS and then went out and added Cliff Lee to a staff of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels. The offense will miss Utley (out with a knee injury), and Lidge beginning the year on the DL will put the spotlight on Madsen as the closer. 97 wins seems right for a team that will not have sustained losing streaks with their starting pitching, and I could even support the over, but there isn't enough value on either the pennant or World Series odds.


Atlanta: (88.5)(+450)(10/1)(25/1): If you like any other team than Philly to win the division there is good value as evidenced by the Braves +450 division odds with a higher than average win total (88.5). Personally I am worried about Jurrijen's continued health issues, and if Lowe and Hudson can pitch as well as they did last season. The offense should be improved with the additions of Uggla and the return of Chipper Jones, but the ground ball defense will be worse for a team that starts three sinkerball pitchers. I don't see the Braves winning 89 games or contending for the division or pennant.


Florida: (81.5)(+800)(25/1)(50/1): If I was forced to take a win total in this division it would be the Marlins over the win total. I love the addition of Javier Vazquez to a power arm rotation of Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, and Chris Volstad. The offense is young, but they will score enough runs in a division where Livan Hernandez and Mike Pelfrey's are considered aces. I don't see this team coming out of nowhere to win the division or pennant, but finishing above .500 should be in the cards for a team on the rise with power pitching and a young star who should bounce back from a tough year (Ramirez).


New York: (78.5)(+1500)(25/1)(50/1): As for a team on the other end of the pitching spectrum, with Santana out for at least a couple of months to begin the season, the Mets are counting on soft throwers Pelfrey, Niese, and knuckleballer R.A. Dickey. The staff combined with the injury history of Reyes, Beltran, and Bay, not to mention the off-field issues with the Wilpon's and K-Rod has me locking in the Mets to go under the win total of 78.5.


Washington: (72)(+1500)(60/1)(125/1): The offense should be OK with the additions of Werth, and LaRoche, and Byrce Harper should make a September appearance. Those are the positives for the Nats, while Strasburg's injury and Livan Hernandez and Jason Marquis as the top two in the rotation are clearly the negatives for Nat's fans. I don't see the Nat's losing only 90 games, so like the Mets I think they are under the win total.


NL Central: St. Louis (87.5)(+220)(8/1)(20/1): With Adam Wainwright missing the season with an elbow injury pitching coach Dave Duncan will need to be at his best this season, which is saying something for the best pitching coach in baseball. The Wainwright injury moves everyone up a slot, and I think that is too much to ask from Lohse, Westbrook, and McCellan. I also don't see the additions of washed up veterans Lance Berkman and Ryan Theriot convincing Pujols to sign long term in St. Louis. .500, and the under on this win total sounds right for Puljos' last season as a Card.


Cincinnati: (87)(+225)(10/1)(25/1): Surprise division winners last season behind a potent lineup and young starting pitching. I like the lineup to continue to put up big numbers, but Dusty Baker handling young pitchers is as troubling as a "Jersey Shore" daycare center. Johnny Cueto is going to begin the season on the DL and I don't think it is prudent to take the over or a division bet on a team where you are counting on Bronson Arroyo.


Milwaukee: (84.5)(+225)(50/1)(100/1): My pick to win the division and a team I like to make a run at a pennant and World Series title. Love the additions of Greinke and Marcum, moving Gallardo and Wolf into comfortable back end of the rotation starters. The offense is powerful and deep and a far and away leading .321 spring team batting average is not an anomaly. John Axford seizing the closer position should stabilize the bullpen, while power pitching and hitting makes this a good value bet all around in a winnable division.


Chicago: (82)(+350)(25/1)(50/1): They will be in position to contend for the division with Ramirez healthy, and the additions of Ray's Pena and Garza. They will need to get something from the top of their lineup and Carlos Zambrano to go over the win total, and that could be a major problem. The odds on Zambrano winning 15 games or being released have to be even money, so .500 sounds right for the wait till next year Cubs.


Houston: (73.5)(+2500)(40/1)(75/1): This is a team that could use a mulligan on their home field, instead of building that band box, they would have a chance in a place like Petco or Safeco with their pitching. I really like the Myers, Rodriguez, Happ trio and think they could make a run at 75 wins even with a lineup that has Hunter Pence and some speed and that is it. My biggest fear in taking the over is a deadline deal where one of the starters is moved for young position players.


Pittsburgh: (65.5)(+4000)(250/1)(500/1): Lowest win total on the board by 4.5 games and highest odds all around, ladies and gentlemen your 2011 Pittsburgh Pirates. The McCutcheon, Tabatha, Walker, Alvarez lineup has some promise, but a staff counting on the breakout of James McDonald along with career years from Maholm and Correia, is optimistic even for the most ardent Bucco fans. Winning 65 games would leave the Pirates 3 losses short of 100, and I think most Pirate fans would sign on for that right now.


NL West: San Francisco (88.5)(+190)(7/1)(15/1): I think everyone would agree that the Giants repeating is a long shot, but repeating to win the division? There is value at +190 for the Giants to win their division, with the pitching staff returning intact and an improved full season lineup, I like that play.


Colorado: (87.5)(+200)(10/1)(25/1): The Rockies are a trendy pick with MVP candidates Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki, and Cy Young contender Jimenez. I like all three, but after an offseason where they all signed big money contracts and notable holes in the outfield, at third base, and behind Jimenez, I think 88 wins is overly optimistic.


Los Angeles: (82)(+250)(15/1)(35/1): I can't say I am confident they will overtake the Giants for the division, but two years removed from the NLCS and with a new manager, I like the value at +250. John Garland and Ted Lilly are good under the radar moves and will fit in well in that home park behind Kershaw and Billingsley. Asking Kemp to revert back to 2009 form and for Furcal and Either to stay healthy might be too much for 90 wins, but I don't think 83 is out of the question.


San Diego: (75.5)(+1400)(40/1)(75/1): Losing Adrian Gonzalez takes away the only scary bat in their lineup, but it is not like they are winning games with offense anyway. This organization knows their park, and with the best bullpen in the majors I like Diego to win at least 76 games and stay relevant in this division until late summer behind starting pitchers Matt Latos and Clayton Richard. Middle infielders Orlando Hudson and Jason Bartlett are solid pickups that won't get headlines but will help with the win total.


Arizona: (72)(+1200)(50/1)(100/1): This team traded their best pitcher (Haren) at the deadline last year and then traded Mark Reynolds and allowed Adam LaRoche to walk in the offseason. Both Justin Upton and Chris Young have had roller coaster like young careers and are now being asked to carry an offense that will need to be productive with starters Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, and Joe Saunders. Sounds like under the win total to me.


AL East: Boston (96)(-165)(5/2)(9/2): Favorites to join the Phillies in the World Series after a half-a-billion offseason that saw them add Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. They definitely won the hot stove league, but will need Josh Beckett and John Lackey to return to form and transition Pappelbon out of the 9th inning. Just like the Phillies odds, there is no value in these numbers, and it might take a Phillies/Red Sox series to get decent value.


New York: (91)(+180)(5/2)(5/1): As illbefrank readers know, Yankees under the win total is always a play I like to make, they could set this at (81) and I would have a hard time taking the over. 3/5th of the starting rotation is A.J. Burnett, Ivan Nova, and Freddie Garcia, so it will be imperative for the Yanks to trend water until they can unload the farm system for a veteran pitcher at the deadline. If you don't like the Red Sox moves, there is value in the division odds.


Tampa: (86)(+750)(10/1)(25/1): Tampa is testing the theory that bullpen productivity can be manufactured every year, after allowing 6 of their AL best bullpen to leave in the winter. The Rays are also counting on Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon to discover the fountain of youth with 1 year deals for both. The young starting pitching would be enough to contend in almost every division, but this year looks like the tipping point for the Rays.


Toronto: (75.5)(+1400)(25/1)(50/1): The Blue Jays led the majors with 257 homers last season, and have one of the deepest systems of strong young arms, so the future is bright. I just don't think they are at that point this season, too many of their pitchers are unproven at the major league level and the offense is more enticing to fantasy owners than win totals.


Baltimore: (74.5)(+2000)(50/1)(100/1): They played over .500 baseball since Buck Showalter took over last season and they have added some professional hitters this winter in Guerrero, Lee, and Reynolds. Showalter always gets the most out of his team and with young pitchers Brain Matusz and Jeremy Guthrie and a solid bullpen, I like the O's to scratch out a few more than 75 wins this season.


AL Central: Minnesota (87)(+165)(8/1)(20/1): The Twins are the perennial Central favorites and with their new ballpark have been able to pay their stars while still developing young players. The Twins need Justin Morneau to return to health and help Joe Mauer in the middle of what is otherwise an ordinary lineup. With other teams in the division improved and the loss of their bullpen and questions about the lineup, I don't see the Twins winning the division or 87 games this season.


Chicago White Sox: (84.5)(+165)(15/1)(35/1): My pick to win this division while winning over 85 games. The Buerhle, Danks, Floyd, Jackson, Peavy rotation doesn't sound overly imposing, but it is solid 1 through 5 and is the best in the division. Adam Dunn was an ideal addition to a lineup and home ballpark that will allow him to take advantage of his strengths (power and OBP). I like the value on this team winning the AL and contending for the World Series as well.


Detroit: (83.5)(+205)(12/1)(30/1): I like the Tigers to contend with the Sox's for the division title and be in the heat of the Wild Card chase. Miguel Cabrera will hit, even with the off field embarrassments and Austin Jackson has a chance for a breakout type year hitting at the top of a very professional lineup. Ace Justin Verlander looks like he is poised for a Cy Young type year this spring and Brad Penny could be a vital addition to the back end of the rotation. I like the Tigers to go over the win total and the value of the division odds.


Cleveland: (71)(+2,000)(100/1)(200/1): I could see Cleveland staying out of the AL Central cellar and winning 72 games due to the fact that they have two major league starters in Carmona and Masterson. They will need Choo to continue to produce like an unheralded star, Santana to be as good as advertised, and Sizemore and Hafner to be average. If these things happen and the stars align, anything is possible, especially the day after the Cavs pounded LeBron and the Heat.


Kansas City: (70)(+4000)(100/1)(200/1): The Royals farm system is the best baseball has seen in years, the lineup has some potential in Butler and Ka'aihue and in Soria they have the best closer in baseball, but they will be hard pressed to win 70 games with a starting rotation of Luke Hochevar, Jeff Francis, Kyle Davies, Bruce Chen, and Vin Mazzaro.


NL West: Texas (88.5)(+145)(8/1)(20/1): It seemed like Cliff Lee was there for longer than half a season, I guess that is what happens when you lead a team to their first ever World Series. The division odds look good for a team that if healthy will form a potent lineup; the addition of Beltre and a full season of Borbon in center will make pitching in Texas easier. Wilson, Hunter, and Lewis all took major strides last season and a trade for a reliever would enable the Rangers to replace Lee with Feliz. In a watered down division the Rangers still look like the team to beat.


Los Angeles: (85)(+205)(12/1)(30/1): The Angels have a better rotation on paper, than Texas, so +205 to win the division is an easy bet to talk yourself into. I would feel much more confident about over the 85 win total if Kendrys Morales was healthy and hitting in the middle of a tissue paper soft lineup. With questions about the lineup and bullpen, 85 wins is optimistic even with a rotation that can go four deep with potential All-Stars.


Oakland: (82.5)(+185)(25/1)(50/1): The A's have a little homeless man's 2010 Giants feel with a rotation of four young power pitchers. Cahill was an All-Star and Braden through a perfect game last season, but Brett Anderson and Gio Gonzalez have the best stuff of the four. The off-season additions of Matsui, DeJesus, and Willingham, should help the worst offensive team in the league, but they will have to catch Giants like magic to make the division and pennant odds pay out. I do like at least 83 wins for this team led by the starters, so that is solid play.


Seattle: (70)(+1600)(60/1)(125/1): The Mariners have two superstars in Ichiro and Felix Hernandez, I like Ichiro to take a run at the batting title and King Felix to win a second Cy Young with less than 15 wins, and there in lies the problem. 70 wins is too optimistic for a team without a power threat in the lineup, and no depth behind Felix. The Mariners found out you can't win games 0-0 last year and their total this year is about 5 games too high.

Monday, March 28, 2011

Western Conference check-in


With a couple of weeks remaining before the end of the regular season, this is a good time to check in on the ever changing NHL Western Conference playoff picture. Below are the standings as of the games played Sunday March 27th.


1) Vancouver (109 pts, 6 games remaining, 3 Home, 3 Away): When we started tracking Western conference, the Canucks were the leaders and favorites to win the President's trophy, but they have played better than that pace recently. They have won 10 of their last 11 games overall, and 8 straight on the road to build a commanding 9 point lead on the rest of the NHL. Yesterday, they won their 50th game of the season, a club record, and have all the pieces for a Stanley Cup run this spring. The Canucks have entered the postseason with talented teams the past couple of years and have come up short in the playoffs, so this team will be under the spotlight and will have no excuses for an exit prior to the Finals.



2) Detroit ( 97 points, 7 games remaining, 4 Home, 3 Away): Detroit has played .500 hockey the last couple of weeks allowing San Jose to catch them in points, but the Red Wings have one game in hand and the much easier remaining schedule so they should hold onto the #2 spot. Tonight's home game vs. Chicago is the first of three meetings with their rivals and how those games play out will go a long way in determining their seed number and if Chicago cracks the top 8.




3) San Jose (97 points, 6 games remaining, 4 Home, 2 Away): The Sharks have gained 75% of the possible points in play during their last 15 games to gain some cushion in the Pacific division and tie Detroit for the #2 seed in the conference. One of the toughest schedules over the last quarter of the season doesn't get any easier over the last six games. Home and homes with Anaheim and Phoenix along with home dates vs. Dallas and LA leave the Sharks with a remaining opponent's winning percentage of (.545), tops in the Western conference. San Jose has played too well lately to lose the Pacific, but the brutal intra-division 6 games remaining will be too much to catch Detroit.



4) Phoenix (93 points, 5 games remaining, 3 Home, 2 Away): No team currently in playoff position has less games remaining than Phoenix. Their next two games are must wins, at home vs. Dallas and Colorado, because the Coyotes finish the season @ LA and then with a home and home vs. the division leading Sharks. The Coyotes are comfortable in low scoring close games and will need Ilya Bryzagalov to steal a few down the stretch or Phoenix will slide down to a 5 or 6 seed and begin the playoffs on the road without home ice advantage.




5) LA (92 points, 7 games remaining, 3 Home, 4 Away): The Kings look to be in good position with two games in hand over 4th seeded Phoenix, and they also host Phoenix in their last remaining head to head game. The numbers are favorable, but losing top center-man Anze Kopitar to a broken ankle will be a major hurdle that could end their season earlier than expected. Their next two games are in Northwest Canada vs. Edmonton and Vancouver and they finish with 5 intra-division games in the Pacific. The Kopitar injury could be a rallying point, but they will need more production from deadline pick up Dustin Penner among others to make up for the biggest late season injury in the West.



6) Nashville (92 points, 6 games remaining, 4 Home, 2 Away): No team in the West had a better home to road game split to end the season, and the Predators have taken advantage to move from 10th to 6th with 6 games remaining. Nashville's remaining two road games are @ Colorado and St. Louis, and of their remaining 6 only two (Vancouver and Detroit) are against teams with a winning record. Deadline pickup Mike Fisher looks to be more comfortable as he has been a factor in recent games and the numbers indicate the most underappreciated team in hockey could easily slide up to a 4 or 5 seed.




7) Anaheim (89 points, 7 games remaining, 4 Home, 3 Away): A home game tonight vs. Colorado is a must, since trips to Calgary and San Jose follow. 3 of their last 4 are at home vs. Pacific division rivals, which should be a chance to nail down one of the last playoff positions. Goalie Jonas Hiller has returned to stabilize the defensive zone, and Corey Perry has made a late run at the Hart trophy with a league leading 43 goals. Winning 2-1 Saturday night in Chicago was a huge victory in the standings and for their confidence leading into the stretch run of their season. With one of the best #1 line's in hockey and Hiller in net, this team should make the playoffs and be a threat to make noise once there.



8) Chicago (88 points, 8 games remaining, 3 Home, 5 Away): Inconsistency has left the defending Stanley Cup champs hovering in the bottom half of the playoff picture. 5 road games are also the most of the Western contenders, as Chicago is @ Detroit tonight followed by road games @ Boston and Columbus. This team seems too talented to miss the playoffs, but without good play on the road or success in their remaining 3 games vs. Detroit they could be in danger.




9) Calgary (87 points, 5 games remaining, 3 Home, 2 Away): With 8th seeded Chicago and 7th seeded Anaheim holding 3 and 2 games respectively in hand vs. the Flames, Calgary will need to win at least 4 of their last 5 and hope for some help to make the playoffs. Erasing a 3 goal third period deficit Saturday in Edmonton and winning in a shootout was a start. Their next game is a must win at home vs. Anaheim, a win and road games @ Colorado and St. Louis would allow the Flames to hold outside hopes of sneaking in the playoffs with some help. Most likely, poor early season play and a lack of games remaining will keep the Flames on the outside looking in at the playoffs.



10) Dallas (86 points, 8 games remaining, 2 Home, 6 Away): The Stars begin a 4 game Pacific division road trip this week with a stretch of games @Phx, SJ, LA, and Anaheim, making this road trip a make or break trip for their season. A favorable early season schedule allowed the Stars to stay in contention, but a brutal division and tough late season slate has the Stars on the outside and needing to play their best hockey this week to stay above water.



11) Minnesota, St. Louis, and Columbus (78 points, 7 games remaining): Minnesota choose a bad time to lose 7 straight, while Columbus was unable to take advantage of home games, and now both teams find themselves out of the playoff picture and have been joined at 78 points by a game Blues team. St. Louis has suffered key injuries this season and their recent play and young players have displayed a bright future, while Minnesota and Columbus are two teams in need of total overhauls.

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Ranking the Sweet 16 games

After this first weekend of the tournament there are only a couple of things you can be sure about. First, if your choices to coach a big game are Rick Barnes and Jamie Dixon, you are in big trouble. Second, Kenny Smith and Charles Barkley talking the college game is about is comfortable as watching Jalen Rose and Jimmy King trying to defend their "Fab Five" fairy tale. Third, the Big East is consistently as overrated as the NFC East. If you had Marquette and UConn as the only two Big East teams in the sweet 16, retire and move to Vegas immediately. As we get closer to the 8 sweet sixteen games and narrow down the teams who are capable of winning a national championship, I thought it would be fun to rank the 8 games (from least to most) that I am most excited to watch.

#8) UNC (-4.5) vs. Marquette, Friday @ 7:15 in Newark: Having the ACC regular season champs and a Big East team as the least exciting game shows the depth of these 8 games, but both teams seem to have ceilings below the Final Four. Marquette has had a nice run, but is at a major disadvantage in this game with only one player taller than 6'7" on the roster. Buzz Williams will need his team to force at least as many turnovers as they did vs. Syracuse to have a chance against the more talented Tar Heels. UNC not only has the size advantage, but in Harrison Barnes, has the best player on the court. Hopefully Jimmy Butler and Big East pride will be enough to keep this game close.

#7) Kansas (-11) vs. Richmond, Friday @ 7:27 in San Antonio: Kansas is joined in the Southwest region by 3 double digit seeds, making their road the Final Four the easiest of the remaining #1 seeds. Richmond has been on a nice run since winning the A-10 tourney and PG Kevin Anderson has shown he is capable of making big shots, but beating Kansas in San Antonio is probably asking too much. Kansas has multiple defenders to check Anderson and both Morris brothers along with Thomas Robinson are NBA lottery picks with games the A-10 champs haven't seen all season. Richmond coach Chris Mooney will inspire his team with the memory of Northern Iowa's victory over Kansas last year, and at the very least will be interviewing with Tennessee and Georgia Tech next week.

#6) Florida State (-3.5) vs. VCU, Friday @ 9:57 in San Antonio: It is a good sign when I would consider myself very interested in the 6th most exciting game of sweet 16 slate. Interesting contrast of styles between these two double digit seeds who have impressed in their first two games. VCU has looked like a '70's NBA team, running and shooting their way to a tourney high 90 ppg, while FSU has been the best defensive team through two games. VCU's destruction of Purdue in Chicago was the best performance of Round 2, until FSU took the court later that night and buried ND. After the Kansas crew departs the Alamo dome, I expect the arena to be packed with knowledge basketball fans, a prerequisite for all basketball fans living in San Antonio.

#5) Wiscy (-5) vs. Butler, Thursday @ 9:57 in New Orleans: Two teams that could switch jerseys and it would take even ardent supporters a few minutes to notice. They both defend at a high level and run offensive sets that would make even the most grizzled of high school coaches proud, but they both have players on their roster that will play at the next level. Wiscy's Jordan Taylor and Jon Leuer along with Butler's Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack might not be cornerstones, but they have games that translate to NBA role players. Wiscy consistently grinds out wins in the Big Ten and they will meet their match against a Butler team that grinds out wins in tourney.

#4) Florida (-3) vs. BYU, Thursday @ 7:27 in New Orleans: Jimmer alone would crack the top 4 games, but in the wide open Southeast region, the winner of this game is in prime position to make the Final Four. Florida has athleticism and depth advantages, while the loss of Brandon Davies might be too much for BYU to overcome against a quality opponent, but you can't count out BYU as long as they have Jimmer. It will be interesting to see what Billy Donovan comes up with to defend him, and the Pistol Pete home state setting adds to the back story.

#3) UConn (-1) vs. San Diego State, Thursday @ 7:15 in Anaheim: Speaking of teams you can't count out due to one player, your 2010-2011 UConn Huskies. Walker has been every bit the player Jimmer has and has done it night in and night out against tougher competition. I was a surprised to see UConn as the favorite in a virtual road game against a SDSU team that has played BYU three times. UConn is on national TV more times in a week than SDSU was all season, so it will be interesting to see prospective lottery pick Kawhi Leonard against an athletic frontcourt. This is a resume game for SDSU; an impressive win would give them another home game for a trip to the Final Four. Meanwhile, a UConn win would be another notch in Walker's sword. The known vs. unknown factor makes this game more than a little intriguing.

#2) Duke (8.5) vs. Arizona, Thursday @ 9:45 in Anaheim: Kyrie Irving's return to the Duke lineup makes this game a must see due to the potential of seeing the top two picks in next year's draft matchup. Irving and Derrick Williams won't match up individually, but how they play will go far in determining the winner and elevate the quality of play. Arizona will have a Pac-10 home court advantage, but will need a lot from Williams and their post players as Duke has a clear cut advantage in guard play. Coach Sean Miller and Derrick Williams have turned around the Arizona program faster than anticipated and have to be happy about getting the defending champs in California and only a week after Irving's return to the lineup.

#1) Ohio State (-6) vs. Kentucky, Friday @ 9:45 in Newark: For my money the sweet sixteen matchup I am most excited to watch. Ohio State has done nothing over the first two games to lose their tag as the favorite, while Kentucky needed to play all 40 minutes in both of their games in Tampa. Kentucky has the speed and athleticism that Ohio State does not see very much in the Big 10, and even though this team might not be as talented as last year's team, they seem to know their roles. Kentucky PG Brandon Knight seems to improve every game and Terrence Jones could be the X factor. Both teams have been on major rolls to end their seasons and win their respective conference tourney's, so a close game with a high quality of play from teams with multiple lottery picks and coaches looking for their first titles doesn't seem to be asking too much.

Monday, March 21, 2011

The Ohio State University

Ohio State has looked as good if not better than any team through the first two rounds of the tournament. The overall #1 seed and pre-tournament favorite barely broke a sweat in beating two mid-majors (UTSA and George Mason) in cozy Cleveland. The games should get tighter and more difficult this week as OSU heads to Newark to take on Kentucky in the regional semi's and the UNC/Marquette winner in the regional final. Since the committee began ranking the overall #1 seed in '04, only one team (Florida) has fulfilled that ranking and gone on the win the tournament. OSU will not only have the pressure of being the overall #1 seed and the pressure of winning OSU's first basketball title since 1960, but they will also have the pressure of keeping the spotlight away from Jim Tressel and the football program. The men's basketball team has been a nice diversion for OSU and their fans, but once their run ends the focus will once again be on Tressel and his antics. I am sure if the OSU administration and staff had their wish, the tournament would stretch into August, August of '12.

Jim Tressel always seemed different, since the day he was hired in 2001 to rescue the football program from John Cooper he seemed to be an outsider. He came from Division 1-AA Youngstown State where he was wildly successful, winning four national championships. During his introductory press conference he promised that OSU fans would be proud of their team on and off the field, most notably every time they played Michigan. He has lived up to his word on the field as his team has won 7 Big Ten titles, 1 national title, and has a 9-1 record vs. rival Michigan. He is often referred to as the "Senator" and "The Vest" for his mild temperament and the way he deals with the media. His teams play a style of ball that relies on defense and special teams with an offense that chips in when necessary, this style has been affectionately referred to as "Tressel ball". He was the anti-Pete Carroll and had even written two books around his philosophies as a leader, educator, and football coach.

There was a general sentiment outside the OSU program that things were almost too good to be true. Players and recruits had off the field incidents that were brushed away as Tressel stressed the need to give second chances and the curing powers of the OSU football program. Could the same man who wrote the books and wore the sweater vests, be the same guy who recruited and defended Maurice Clarett? Things didn't change until the break between last year's regular season and Sugar Bowl, when 5 OSU starters, most notably QB Terrelle Pryor, were suspended by the NCAA five games for receiving improper benefits. The players were suspended for trading their memorabilia for discounts at a local tattoo parlor. In typical NCAA fashion they punished the players for making money on themselves, when everyone knows that the NCAA is the only one allowed to make money off the players. The most shocking result of the violations was that the suspensions would begin in '11 allowing the players to play in OSU's Sugar Bowl. The players then pledged their allegiance to coach Tressel, by not turning pro and vowed to start their suspensions next season. The players played and Tressel coached in the Sugar Bowl and OSU ended their 9 games losing streak to SEC teams with a victory over Arkansas.

All seemed right in the OSU football world until a few weeks ago when emails surfaced that showed Jim Tressel knew about his players' NCAA violations and withheld this information. Like a school child asked to discipline himself after being caught cheating, OSU suspended Tressel for two games and fined him $250,000, or 7% of his $3.5 million annual salary. If there was any question about who the most powerful person in the state was, when asked if the school considered firing Tressel, OSU president E. Gordon Gee laughed "Are you kidding me". When asked why he withheld this information, Tressel said he was scared due to the ongoing federal drug trafficking investigation of the parlor owner and that he wanted to respect his source's confidentiality. When asked why he didn't consult the school's compliance office, which is the largest in the nation, Tressel had no comment. No comment was also the response given when asked if he was concerned he would lose his starters for the entire season if he would have admitted what he knew about the violations when they occurred. Of the 12 previous coaches who have admitted to withholding or lying about NCAA violations since '06, 11 have resigned or have been fired. After the firestorm that resulted from Tressel's admittance and OSU's decision to stick with their coach, the school, on Tressel's suggestion added three games to his original suspension to match the player's suspensions.

I have scoffed at the NCAA for their "head in the sand" attitude to "amateur" college athletics, but this is their chance to show that if rules violations by players are not allowed, then withholding or lying about this information by a coach is as severe of an offense as can possibly be committed. The NCAA suspended then Oklahoma State and now Cowboy WR Dez Bryant for his entire senior season in '09 for lying to investigators about his involvement with an agent. If Bryant was suspended for an entire year, Tressel should be suspended for at least that amount, if not more. OSU had their chance to punish Tressel and they didn't just drop the ball, they buried the ball five feet underground. Tressel had a chance to acknowledge the violations and let the debate surround the NCAA rules themselves, instead by not admitting the truth and putting the violations in the past, it has become part of OSU's and Tressel present and future. "It takes only a moment of weakness to wipe away a lifetime of goodwill" is a quote Tressel acknowledges as one of his favorites in his second book, maybe the NCAA can cite this when they ban Tressel from OSU for the 2 years he deserves along with his salary for both seasons. At least Carroll left USC before he had to answer the questions about what he knew and when, saving himself for pulling a "Tressel" affectionately known as lying or withholding violations in your program.

Over-Cooked

Enough is enough for Matt Cooke, when will he learn that he is hurting the team with his idiotic play. He has a target on his back; all the players, coaches and officials have an extra eye on him at all times, so how does he convince himself he will get away with his action. He is a repeat offender and really there is no way to get past the point that he is, indeed, the epitome of a dirty player.





Yeah Cooke is a good hockey player. He has a role on the team, and that role is being the aggitator. He plays this role really well, bothers goalies and harrasses player, yet he possesses enough skill to make him worth the money he was paid this offseason. He is a better hockey player than Jarkko Ruutu, Steve Avery, and Chris Neil, other aggitators, who all lack an offensive prowess.

Cooke also thrives on the penalty kill, but more often than not, he is the one in the box, so what good are those skills.

Referees hate him, thus making it nearly impossible for him to draw a penalty. Outside of getting high-sticked and drawing blood, or having a player take off his skate and stab him, the probability of Cooke putting us on the man advantage is very slim.

His hit against the Rangers was the last straw. I have been a supporter of Cooke simply for the fact that he was a Penguin. Considering myself a decent human being, I can't find it to forgive him this time. He is a repeat offender, who goes out of his way to hurt others. I'm all for big hits and fighting in hockey, its been that way forever, but cheapshot artists like Cooke need to go. How hard is it to just check a guy into the boards without raising an elbow with the hopes of decapitaing him.

Cooke's owner, Mario Lemieux, has been leading a crusade to eliminate head hunters from the game. What kind of credibility does it give Lemieux and his movement, if one of his own employees is the poster child of the "problem."

Cooke should atleast miss the next 10, which would have him available for the start of the postseason. But because of his rep, I could see it being more.

The Pens are in enough trouble without the loss of a top-9 forward. Injuries and an impotent powerplay are reasons enough for Pens fans to worry. Yeah they are still holding the 4th spot in the East, but Tampa is closing in. Home ice is important, so these points are crucial. Games against Detroit and Philly don't bode well for a team whose leading goal scorers are Chris Kunitz and Tyler Kennedy.

As I've mentioned before, Letang is exhausted without Crosby, Malkin and Orpik. He is trying to do too much. Without Orpik, he has to focus more on his defensive responsibilities, but without Sid and Geno, he has to focus more on his offensive abilities; thus spreading Tanger too thin. He played his best hockey at the beginning of the season, when he had support at both ends of the rink and could just focus on himself and his skill set.

How long will Fleury be able to keep this up. He has been good, but as of late, he has been letting up some of his patented "soft" goals. In previous years, he was prone to letting a weak shot through, but that was only when he wasn't "into" the game or lacked motivation. This year, he knows this is his team. The team will only go as far as he takes them, so the motivation is there. He has played 58 games, and I don't see him getting much of a break leading into the playoffs. Let's hope he can keep it going.

The powerplay stinks. Again it comes down to zone entry. They don't have anyone who can lug the puck. Although, if they had someone who could win an offensive zone faceoff, zone entry would be a moot point. Win a face off Staal, or get the hell off the ice.

We'll see where this roller coaster of a season goes, but to be honest, if I were the Pens, I would just bring my golf clubs with me on the trip to Tampa, because it seems like their vacations will begin early this year.

On a positive note, the Pirates have the chance to resign Ollie Perez. He was just cut by the Mets, who ate his $12 million contract for this season. Who on earth would have given Oliver Perez $12 million?

Thursday, March 17, 2011

Happy St. Patrick's Day

A day celebrating gingers, drunks, and midgets.

Have fun









Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Real World back to Vegas



What better place to re-visit than Vegas on the Silver anniversary of the show that started it all, the "Real World". Nine years after the Real World's first stay at the Palms, the cast upgrades to the Hard Rock this season. Both casinos are off the strip in opposite directions, but the Hard Rock is younger and has a much better pool/outside gaming area. I also give the dealers the edge at the Hard Rock and "The Joint" regularly has better musical acts than the Palms' "Pearl Concert Theater". The overall atmosphere of the Hard Rock is akin to Spring Break and that is the demographic of recent Real World casts. Not to mention that the Hard Rock is owned by a hotel conglomerate and private equity fund with a market cap of around 1 billion each, unlike the owners of the Palms who needed a loan from the NBA while looking to relocate their Sacramento Kings to Anaheim. Also, since the Kings are the closest professional sports team to a Real World cast having them both running concurrently is probably too much. I think the trend to go younger has been beneficial, as this leads to better TV in a "can't wait to see what they do next, Charlie Sheen type way". As with every season the cast will make or break the season, so based on the premier and their MTV bio's, below is a cheat sheet to get you caught up before episode 2.







Nany: She is 21 years old and is from Jamestown New York, where she has lived for her entire life. She was voted most popular in high school and was the homecoming queen. She is currently enrolled in community college and wants to be a parole officer. She has had the same boyfriend since she was 15, and they are currently together. My first thought was when she told her boyfriend that she was going on the "Real World" was that their remaining time together had to be the same situation as this year for Albert Pujols and the Cards. Both Nany and Pujols want to see what else is out there, while St. Louis and her boyfriend at home hold out the faint hope that they will return. Just as Pujols will meet with other clubs the day after the World Series, Nany was immediately intrigued by one of her current Vegas roommates. We have seen this movie before, I like Pujols to be a Cub next year and Nany to be single by the reunion show.


Adam: He is 22 years old and is from Portland Maine. He graduated from college with a degree in Criminology, which doesn't sound out of the ordinary until he reveals that he spent three years in a juvenile detention center between the age of 16 and 19 due to a drug deal/robbery gone wrong. He and Nany immediately establish a connection, especially after she admits that she has a thing for bad boys and his insistence that they will be the closest in the house. In the first episode he proclaims his love for both Nany and a local girl he meets on the first night out and uses the identical story with both, claiming that he is nervous being around women he truly likes. The other girl ploy seems to work by making Nany jealous, and being a self described "loose cannon" has the potential for trouble during a weekend in Vegas let only a couple of months. Fittingly, scenes from upcoming episode 2 show Adam being forcibly removed from the casino by bouncers and vandalizing the roommates penthouse, which would be under my pre-season total of 3 episodes before someone was arrested or thrown out of the house.


Dustin: He is 24 years old and is from Louisiana with a southern accent to match. He comes off like a really fun guy who will be the center of the house as a friend to all, sort of a homeless man's Ace from Paris. 24 is a little long in tooth for women's tennis players and Real World roommates, as by this age roommates have already made their "mistakes". Cue the MTV dramatic music, Dustin has a secret, he admits in a game of "Never have I ever" that he has had a threesome with another guy and then in the confessional to being on a webcam show naked with other men, though he is not gay (not that there is anything wrong with that). He is unsure if he should open up to the other roommates about this, like success in the Stanley Cup playoffs, only time will tell. He is the ringleader of proving a hypothesis we never really needed to prove; he was able to lure local girls make to his room with the promise of a penthouse apartment/Jacuzzi and bowling alley. He comments numerous times that it would be a big mistake to hook up with one of his roommates and then does just that on the second day. Scratch that theory about being too mature to make "mistakes".



Heather: She is 21 years old from NJ and loves the beach; she is not Italian so the Real World is a better fit than Jersey Shore. She gets points for knowing where she has the best chance for success, just as systems make quarterbacks, personalities shine depending on the reality show. She laments about her 5'3" height, but claims to have a personality that is twice her size. She has been in relationships her entire life and can't wait to be single in Vegas and then like so many aspiring talk show host Real World starlets before her she finds her roommate Dustin very attractive and proceeds to hook up with him on the second day. I don't know about talk show host, but she could have 5+ year career as a Challenge competitor ahead of her at this rate.


LeRoy: He is a 25 year old from Detroit who now lives in Dallas and goes by the nickname Roy-Lee, crafty, kind of how everyone in the world with initials D and J goes by DJ. Like figure skaters 25 is an outlier for a cast member recently, but few people to shack up in a Real World house have more confidence. He is a garbage man and with the confidence he shows on this show he will do more for the confidence of all sanitation engineers since the movie "Men at Work". He is a self proclaimed ladies man and says he is a system where he starts with the best looking woman in the room and works his way down. I think Pat Riley had the same system when he choose Erik Spoelstra as Heat coach. He gets mistaken for a professional athlete often, that coupled with the Vegas backdrop had me thinking about a future Elton, but that is high praise and as Harold Minor can attest to, be compared to a legend can break you, so I am holding off until I see his mental makeup in his first challenge.



Michael: He is a 23 year old from Virginia and a recent graduate of the University of Maryland. In his first appearance in front of the camera he talks about losing his virginity a couple of weeks prior to coming on the show. He is the "fish out of water" roommate and maybe one of the biggest fish out of water roommates since Julie in New Orleans. He would fit right in with my one year daughter, but I don't know how he will do in this environment after first arriving at the house with Heather and suggesting that they peek-a-boo the next roommate to enter? He references the sights at the house through the eyes of his grandma and comes across as the Reggie Miller on the Pacers team that went into the stands in Detroit.

Naomi: She is 22 years old and is from the boogie down Bronx. I got a severe case of déjà-vu when she walked into the Hard Rock as she bears more than a little resemblance to cast-mate Irulan Williams from the first Real World trip to Vegas, right down to their NYC boroughs. She got the least amount of storyline in the first episode due the fact that she didn't come to Vegas with a boyfriend or hook up with a fellow cast mate or local on the first night there. She is the Desmond Jennings of the cast; she has the highest ceiling and lowest floor of this crew.

Monday, March 14, 2011

A sad commentary by Kimmy King







I wanted to write about the new cast of the Real World "Las Vegas", but after multiple text messaging today asking me if I heard what Jimmy King said today on ESPN I had to push the Real World back a few days and post this clip and my thoughts.



My first thought was sadness and embarassment for King, this first comes across as bitter and mean spirited. More importantly this is a terrible commentary from a role model who presently works with children. He should be encouraging young kids, especially young African American children to aspire to attend Duke and not for their basketball program. A Duke education is priceless and everyday African American Duke graduates do great things for society through work in medical, research, and educational fields to name a few. Would Jimmy King classify these Duke students/grads as "Uncle Tom's"?



By labeling African American Duke basketball players as "Uncle Tom's" he labels a variety of different people and personalities, most of whom he has never met. In the clip Grant Hill is mentioned by name, King should talk to any NBA player who has had the privelege to play with Hill and ask them what they think about Grant Hill. Another great example recent example is Shane Battier who was traded to Memphis at the deadline this year. When beat reporters asked current Grizzles OJ Mayo and Zack Randolph (both of whom have had checkered pasts to say the least) about Battier they gushed and called him an "example both on and off the court". If Mayo and Randolph are not "real" enough for King he could ask anyone on the Olympic team or Doc Rivers why a young African Amercian player might be swayed to play for Coach K and the Duke program.

I was glad to see Jason Whitlock immediately condemn King on twitter for these "ridiculous" comments, and now it is time for Jalen Rose to do the same. I like Rose as a TV personality and he did a nice job with this project, but he along with everyone else associated with these movie needs to state publicly how off base King's comments were. Hopefully prominent African American sportwriters who all have taken advantage of educational opportunties at institutions like Duke will also go public with thoughts to show that King is standing alone so far out in left field that he looks as small as these comments.

Selection Sunday Review

I wouldn't say I am a bitter old sports fan, but after watching last night's selection of the annual bracket I caught myself missing the good old days of 64 teams, playing in the East, West, South, and Midwest regions with each individual bracket playing on the same day with two neutral sites for each bracket. It seems like the NCAA has tinkered with these tournament every year and it screams the question; Why mess with something that isn't broken? Couple that question with the fact that in the easiest year to pick the field the selection committee still managed to screw it up makes it an interesting night to review.

Did we really need to change the regions to the East, West, Southwest, and Southeast? So the Southeast regional final will be played New Orleans, while the Southwest regional final will be played in San Antonio Texas, which borders Louisiana? Seems strange to get rid of the Midwest region which could extend from Ohio to Colorado and encompasses the Big 12 and Big 10 regions?

The pod system is confusing and forces you to carry around a bracket for the entire opening. I understand that the NCAA wants to protect the higher seeds under the guise of saving travel time, but the neutral site locations were part of the fan experience and left open the possibility of neutral fans backing the underdog when the games got close. Now not only are the 1 and 2 seeds protected with literal home games, but each individual regions play on different days. For example in the Western region half the teams play on Thurs, half on Friday with each 4 team group playing in four different locations forcing you to keep a bracket on hand at all times.

64 teams is the perfect number of teams with games on Thursday to Sunday for the next two weeks until the Final Four is determined. This gave you 3 and half days to complete your bracket and all the matchups were set on Sunday. Two 16 seed play in games, UAB/Clemson, and USC/VCU is as un-exciting as a Northern Exposure marathon. The over/under for stubhub tickets to those four Tues/Wed games has to be a robust $3 and seems odd to add teams when the committee can't get the at large picks right.

Speaking of USC and VCU, including two teams no one thought had a chance to make this tourney and turning Jay Bilas into Jim Rome interviewing Jim Everett was quite an accomplishment. This brought up an interesting debate about who should be picking this tourney and the Dick Vitale suggestion of appointing Bilas as NCAA basketball commish seems like a great idea to me. One thing is for sure; having the OSU athletic director as committee chair during an ongoing athletic scandal at his school probably isn't a great idea. Leaving Colorado out of the field when they have 4 better wins (Kansas State 3X and Texas) than VCU and UAB combined was a travesty, while the seeding lines of PSU, MSU, and Michigan scream out Big 10 bias. I do have to hand it to the committee for the humor in pitting Louisville and embattled coach Rick Pitino in a first round matchup against Morehead State.

One change that I will welcome this year is the decision by CBS to join with TBS/TNT to televise every game this year. Not only will this enable the individual viewer to choose the game they want to watch, but by adding game announcers Steve Kerr and Reggie Miller the quality of the viewing experience will increase. You also can't argue with more Charles Barkley and even if he and Kenny Smith know less about college hoops than world finance they keep trips to the studio entertaining while Greg Anthony and Seth Davis provide the insight.

Even with some bad changes and a less than best field the tourney will continue to be the best couple of weeks in the sporting calendar due to the one and done format, upsets, stories, and quality of play. By next Thursday's sweet 16 games I will be all in. Speaking of the sweet 16 here are my picks.

East: OSU will get by George Mason in Cleveland and will face Kentucky. In the bottom half of the bracket I like Cuse to beat Marquette and Washington to ride their veteran guards past UNC in Charlotte.

West: Duke will get by Tennessee in Charlotte as Kyrie Irving continues to practice with hopes of playing next week. In one of the best possible 2nd round games I like Arizona to beat Texas in Tulsa. In the bottom half of the bracket I like Missouri to press their way to two wins over Big East teams and face a very athletic team in Diego State.

Southwest: Kansas in Tulsa will be too much for Vegas, and I like Vandy over L'Ville. Purdue will advance with two games in Chicago and the home crowd will help ND over Texas A&M.

Southeast: Pitt will grind out a win over Butler and will face Utah State who will be beat Belmont in a second round matchup of a 12 vs. a 13. St. Johns has a tough draw in Denver vs. Gonzaga and BYU, but they have the bodies to run at Jimmer and advance. I also like MSU to find their rhythm against UCLA and beat Florida in Tampa.


Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Championship Week

I can't remember a year in college basketball that has been more wide open than this season, sort of the anti-Oscars, where it is difficult to make a convincing argument for any team winning two games in the tourney. With so many teams reliant on favorable matchups to advance next week there is an added sense of urgency for this week's conference tournaments, where the difference between a win and a loss could a bid or two to three seed lines. With that in mind below is an overview of the major conference tourney's and what teams need a good showing the most.

Big East

Overview: It is fitting that a conference poised to make up over 14% of tourney teams plays their conference tourney in the best venue in the country. The biggest surprises are Nova playing on Day 1 as the 10 seed, while Cincy and St. John's have buys, and ND being the 2 seed and a legit top 10 team with an outside shot at a #1 seed. Possible second round matchups of Conn/G'Town, SJ/Hall, Nova/Cincy, and Marquette/WVU rival any other conference tourney's semi's or finals and a possible SJ/Cuse quarter would be electric. Keep in mind all of these games will occur prior to Friday night's semifinal matchups.

Team(s) who need a strong showing: Marquette would be the only team at risk if the bubble is the size of the recent housing bubble, so they can't afford an opening day loss to Providence. After Providence, Marquette has the best draw it could have hoped for with matchups vs. WVU and Louisville. I also think the winner of a possible St. Johns/Cuse quarter would make a major move up the seed line and at least lock up a #3. ND has never had success in the Garden, but a win this year would give the Big East a convincing argument for two #1 seeds next week.

Big 10

Overview: The question of depth or mediocrity will be answered over the next couple of weeks for this conference. As of now, I tend to side towards depth, even with Mich St. and Minny being seeded 7th and 9th respectively behind 6th seeded Penn State. John Beilen should get a ton of credit for coaching this Michigan team to a fourth place finish behind heavyweights OSU, Purdue and Wiscy (at least one WVU coached worked Michigan fans). A possible Purdue/Wiscy semi would be a "can't miss" with a #3 seed in the Big Dance on the line.

Team(s) who need a strong showing: As hard is this is to type after a pre-season #2 ranking, Michigan State needs an opening win over Iowa and a win over Purdue to secure a dance invitation. Tubby Smith and Minny also need an opening win over NW and a season saving upset of OSU to crack the at large field. Both Michigan and Illinois are currently in the field, but that quarter could be labeled a seeding game as both teams could be anywhere from a #11 to a #7.

Big 12

Overview: The lack of depth in this conference is on display with four must miss opening games (Neb/OK St, Col/ISU, Baylor/OK, and Mizz/TTech), but if the seeds hold a Kansas/KSU and Texas/Tex A&M semi slate would rival the Big East semi's in terms of quality of play. A Kansas/Texas final could be a playoff for a #1 seed and every team from A&M to Mizz could move up or down the seed considerably pending their play this week.

Team(s) who need a strong showing: Nebraska and Colorado have some of the worst out of conference schedules in America so opening game victories are a starting point. Nebraska would face Kansas in the quarters and a win coupled with their regular season victory over Texas would make them hard to leave out. Colorado opens with Iowa State and a win would put them in the quarters vs. the roller coaster that is KSU. Both teams need two wins and if they both get them they would play each other in the semis. Texas also needs a strong run to stop the seed sliding, at least to the finals after playing .500 play for the last couple of weeks.

Mountain West

Overview: Not only is the tourney played in Vegas, but this conference is one of the best this year with two teams in the mix at the 1/2 seed lines and three capable sleepers. The main storylines will revolve around Jimmer, how BYU plays without Davies, and a possible round 3 of BYU/SDSU. SDSU is at a major disadvantage being the #2 seed with a possible semi vs. UNLV on the Rebels home court.

Team(s) who need a strong showing: Colorado State and New Mexico match up evenly in a quarter with the winner getting BYU (most likely) in the semi's. New Mexico has beaten BYU twice this season and is capable of winning this tourney and stealing a Big Dance ticket. UNLV should make the tourney regardless, but a good showing on their home court could move them up a couple seed lines.

PAC 10

Overview: Sean Miller led Arizona to the regular season Pac 10 title in year 2 behind dominant big man Derrick Williams, but the Wildcats are at a disadvantage playing this tourney in LA. USC/Cal and Wash/WSU are interesting rivalry quarterfinal games and are must wins for USC and Washington's tourney hopes. UCLA catches a nice break as the 2 seed and will enjoy the LA venue in their quarter vs. the winner of Ore/ASU and their semi vs. the winner of WSU/Wash with the chance to move up a couple of seed lines with a good showing.

Team(s) who need a strong showing: Washington has too much talent to miss the tournament, but without a quarterfinal win vs. WSU they could be left out. USC has two quality out of conference wins (Texas, Tennessee), wins over Cal and Arizona would put them in the final and off the bubble.

SEC

Overview: The exact opposite of the football season where the western half of the conference was dominant and the east a doormat. Florida is the east's #1 seed, but has the much more difficult road to the final than east #2 seed Kentucky. Florida most likely will have to beat both Tennessee and Vandy to make the finals, while Kentucky has the winner of Miss/S. Car in the quarters and the Bama/UGA winner in the semi's.

Team(s) who need a strong showing: Any team from the western division, since no team is currently in the field next week. The closest thing to a play in game could be the UGA/Bama quarter, but both teams would need to follow up that win with a decent showing in the semi's vs. Kentucky. Tennessee or Vandy could both use a win over Florida this week on a neutral site to push up their seed line.

ACC

Overview: This conference used to be known for its depth of talent, but this year it is as top heavy as a Hugh Hefner weeding. UNC came out of nowhere behind freshman Marshall and Barnes to win the regular season as Duke leaked oil to the finish. FSU is a mildly intriguing team and the only other lock in this conference to get a bid. Anything short of a UNC/Duke final will be a surprise and a ratings calamity for ESPN.

Team(s) who need a strong showing: VTech needs a win in their opening game vs. GTech and a very solid showing at the least vs. FSU to finally get Seth Greenburg off the bubble. BC would need to collapse to not beat Wake in their opening game and a win would set up an elimination game vs. Clemson. Duke needs a strong showing to stabilize their seed and the ability to get something more than jump shots on offense would be a start along with some defensive intensity.


Friday, March 4, 2011

Season 3 Jersey Shore Winners/Losers

Season 3 of Jersey Shore debuted on January 6, 2011, which was before Auburn and Oregon played for the national title, at that time GB was on the outside of the NFL playoff picture, Crosby was healthy and on a record setting points pace, Charlie Sheen was mildly labeled a loose cannon, and Deron Williams and Jerry Sloan had Utah in a battle for home court in round 1 of the NBA playoffs. As you can see a lot has changed since this season's debut and after reading winner/losers columns for the past two weeks about the NBA and NHL trade deadlines I thought why not take the formula and apply it to this season at the Shore.

Winners:

MTV: This showed looked to be going nowhere fast when Italian American groups were protesting the network before it aired, but the premier of season 3 was the most watched MTV show of all time with 8.45 million viewers. Three subsequent episodes during the third season have passed the premier in viewership and the cable network more than competes with network programming during the Thursday night time slot. Even more impressive than being the most watched MTV show ever and in turn beating past MTV favorites like Yo MTV raps, Undressed, and My So Called life is the fact that Season 3 of the Shore has more viewers than the last season of Lost minus the series Finale.

Seaside Heights: Not only does the beach town and establishments gain notoriety by hosting this crew, but the cast and crew seem much more comfortable back in their home turf as opposed to on the road in Miami. The cast has spoken numerous times about how they feel at home on the Boardwalk and in the clubs and that comfort can be felt by the viewer as well. Just as Joe Namath will always be remembered as a Jet and Willie Mays as a Giant, this crew will never be more at home than in Seaside. Interacting with the Jersey locals especially in the club scene is reminiscent of early Vince Vaughn and Jon Favreau collaborations.

Pauly: He is a combination of D-Rose and Kevin Love this season, both MVP and a guy putting up ridiculous numbers. Like Rose he is the glue that keeps this dysfunctional crew together and like Love he never misses a chance to outshine his cast mates. He steals scenes like John Cazale and I can't wait for his well deserved spin off show. Scenes of him cleaning his sneakers, playing a fake operator on the phone to one of Snooki's hook ups, making quick witted "Roger that" jokers while Jenni is on the phone breaking up with Tom, playing it cool when his stalker threw a drink in his face and then inviting her to the house to show no hard feelings, "T-shirt time", and "cabs are here" should all be on the best of Pauly season 3 DVD coming out soon. I know that DVD would outsell the Packers 2010-2011 season in review 2 to 1.

Domestic Violence Awareness: A line was most definitely crossed in two episodes this season, first when Sammi punches Ronnie in the jaw for befriending Jenni and then two episodes later when viewers witnessed Ronnie destroying all of Sammi's personal belongings and trying to throw her bed out on the porch with her on it. Ronnie should have spent that night in jail and seeing a seemingly normal girl like Sammi unable to free herself from this relationship was troubling, eye opening, and a teachable moment for young people watching. Hopefully watching the issues in their relationship build up to these incidents is a better example of what not to do for young people than any lecture by an adult or a made for TV movie. Speaking of made for TV movies, even one based on a true story like "No One Would Tell" starring Fred Savage and Candace Cameron seems too exaggerated and unrealistic and has a "that would never happen to me" like feel. If you haven't seen that movie, make a point to, but trust me you will never watch the Wonder Years the same after watching Fred Savage's performance as a high school murderer.

Girl Code: Fittingly round 2 between Jenni and Sammi happened in episode 2 of this season and then two things happened to bring these fierce rivals together Hogan/Macho Man style. First, Sammi got to see for herself what happened in Miami when MTV ran that season. She got to see how Jenni had her best intentions at heart with "the letter" and she saw that she was in the wrong and apologized to Jenni. Second, after the domestic violence incident the girls and Jenni in particular came to Sammi's defense and made their displeasure with Ronnie known to everyone in the house including Ronnie. Jenni packed up what was left of Sammi's belongings that Ronnie didn't destroy and reached out to her over the phone to show their support and solidarity. I have written in the past how I thought this feud would play out, but I was way off, score one for Girl Code.

Jenni's dogs and my Hard Drive: Tom, Jenni's boyfriend coming into this season found out what most NBA road playoff teams and most significant others of reality show participants also soon discover; you have very little chance of winning when you are the old "boy/girlfriend" left at home. The allure of Roger quickly won Jenni's heart and Tom moved out of Jenni's house back home. Once Jenni knew Tom had left she and Snooki headed inland to get the dogs and her other personal belongings. The dogs instantly become big winners when they are brought to the Shore house and go from a small residential home with Tom to a 3 story beach house with 7 people. I am sure that nap places increased exponentially for the dogs and someone is always cooking which leads to scraps and leftovers. A deck and walks on the beach are also major residual benefits. Stunningly, Jenni seemed most disturbed that Tom took her hard drive, not her jewelry, money, or furniture? I don't know what is on that hard drive, but I have been taking my computer security more seriously ever since.

Dean: Or maybe you know him as the Ronnie look alike, he looks exactly like him and has the same mannerisms. When Deena brought him home the boys immediately took him into Ronnie's room to try to see if Sammi would know if they switched places. Ronnie immediately knew who he was, that must have been how Drew Brees felt when Diego drafted Rivers. He doesn't make the winners list for hooking up with Deena, but with Ronnie being the cast member most likely to be booted; Dean has positioned himself as the natural replacement.

Vinnie's reputation as a ladies' man: He has a likable personality and comes across as genuine, hanging out with Pauly can't hurt either, but if you would have told me 12 months ago that Vinnie would be the cast member who is best with the ladies I would have said there is a better chance that I would be disappointed that a Ben Affleck written and directed movie didn't win Best Picture at the Oscars (The Town) or that I would be writing 2,000 words about this show. 3 for 3, so let's move on.

Grenade Whistle: Not only having one, but employing it often. Can't you just see the official Jersey Shore grenade whistle for only $19.99 being advertised at every souvenir shore in Jersey?

Losers:

Ronnie: If Pauly is the MVP, Ronnie is the LVP or what Ilya Kovalchuk is in the NHL or Andrew Bogut is in the NBA. "Fun" Ronnie has been replaced by loner relationship Ronnie, depressed Ronnie, or crazy Ronnie depending on the episode this season. As I mentioned earlier his domestic incident should have earned him a night in jail and his abrupt mood swings mixed with alcohol fueled binges should be incorporated into the "what not to do" section of the steroid cycle. At his most stable this season he had to visit the proctologist, which isn't the most riveting TV, and most of his story arcs seem like they are leading up to an Intervention.

Interventions: Wouldn't a Ronnie intervention be the most priceless TV moment since Kramer moved to Del Boca Vista? Move over Miami Heat, a Jersey Shore meets Celebrity Rehab meets Intervention would be the ultimate big 3. We have already seen Ronnie's friends and father visit him and encourage him to stay; all that is left is to rent out Karma and get the "Your addiction has affected me negatively in the following ways" letters out (Snooki and Ron's dad are even money favorites to have the funniest letters). You can't convince me that an episode titled "Ronnie's Intervention" would get over 10 million viewers.

Sammi's long term emotional state: She was wrong when she punched Ronnie and she did the right thing when she left and went home to her mother and sister and get away from this dysfunctional relationship. She seems like she has a great support system, but coming back and living in the same house as Ron has to make things even crazier. Hopefully she can move from this relationship to something healthy, but it is going to be quite a ride, sort of like a two minute drill with Andy Reid and Michael Vick.

Guy Code: Ronnie was incensed that Mike supposedly broke it in Miami by ratting him out to Sam; it took a confrontation for Mike to apologize. Mike tried to hook up with Pauly's ex at a club, a clear violation. Mike and Vinnie seem to go after the same girls even when they are back at their house, and Mike felt the code had been broken when the other 3 guys left him home when they went out to dinner.

Snooki's hook-up's, adding her friend Deena to the cast, and being a good person : I admit like TNT drama's I don't' get the allure of Snooki, is it her great personality, her brains, her look, her inability to remember your name? Couple that with the fact that her two guys this season are related and I am even more confused. Deena's contributions to the season are unknowingly getting naked in the first episode, hooking up with Ronnie's look alike and regularly getting kicked out of clubs 5 minutes after arriving. All things the show could live without, especially when she has the same personality as Snooki. Maybe most troubling to the general public is the fact that continuing to repeat the phrase "I am a good person" will not keep you from getting arrested when you are so drunk that you can't stand at noon on a weekday in public.

Cleanliness: A 7 person beach house where someone always seems to be cooking, a guest room only used for hooking up, Snooki's slippers, two dogs, and a toilet that has been clogged for a couple of weeks is a recipe that would make Billy Corgan's stomach turn. Leaving the toilet clogged for weeks has to be the worst when a 30 minute appearance of any cast member would generate a fee that would cover a complete plumbing overhaul for the entire house. The plumber who eventually had to fix that toilet was the biggest loser in this situation this side of NBC.

Season 4 in Italy: Going back to Jersey has made season the best season to date and I am afraid that going to Italy will make this show unwatchable. There is a BJ Raji like difference between Italian Americans/want to be Italian Americans and actual Italians who live in Italy, and I am afraid we are going to realize that immediately after the first few episodes of the cultural shock that next season has in store. The best analogy I can think of is Baron Davis, the talented and temperamental point guard was at his best with the Golden State Warriors from '05 to'08. After the '08 season he left Golden State for the big money of LA and has looked out of place ever since. At the time it looked like a bad decision and looks even worse in hindsight today. He was meant to wear a Warrior jersey and seeing him miscast somewhere else just makes me sad, this crew was meant for the Jersey Shore or at the very least this country. I have a feeling I will be just as sad watching season 4 in Italy as I am watching Baron rack up DNP coaches decisions in Cleveland.

Pauly's stalker: She doesn't make the list for throwing the drink in his face, but there are few worse nicknames than this one.