Monday, October 18, 2010

10 Impressions from the first 10 days of the NHL season



1) Toronto is more than just a surprise, they are a contender: The Leaf's are 4-0 through 4, in stark contrast from last year when they did not win their 4th game until November 21st. GM Brian Burke made the major move of the trade deadline last year with the acquisition of franchise defenseman Dion Phanuef. He also acquired reliable goaltender J.S. Giguere and both have been revived playing in the biggest hockey market in the world. A healthy Phil Kessel for the start of the season has also been key for Toronto as he has 4 goals through 4 and looks to be the feared sniper Burke expected when he traded for his services. Kessel has meshed well with linemates (C) Tyler Boziak and free agent addition (LW) Kris Versteeg to form a potent number 1 line that coach Ron Wilson has leaned on through their start. Another off-season addition, second liner Clarke MacArthur leads the team with 5 goals and due to their new found depth the Leaf's have been able to run out four lines consistently this season. In true Brian Burke fashion this team has been built from the net out with Giguere and Gustavsson between the pipes being complemented with Phaneuf, Beauchemin, Kaberle, Komisarek, and Scheen on the back end. The depth on both offense and defense will allow the Leaf's to contend this season and the rebuilding job in Toronto is a couple of years ahead of schedule.


2) The Stars look to be this year's Phoenix Coyotes: The Stars are also 4-0 with 2 wins coming in shootouts and one in OT and look remarkably like last year's Coyotes who were the surprise team of the league. The Stars like the Coyotes have gotten off to a fast start that no one expected due to their ability to win games decieded after regulation and both teams have similar ownership issues. Stars owner Tom Hicks has forced GM Joe Nieuwendyk to keep the payroll near the floor of the cap while the Coyotes were owned by the NHL and faced the same monetary issues. Dallas has relied on the steady goaltending of Kari Lehtonen who has a GAA of 2.39 and a save % of .932, and the most under the radar stars in the league in Brad Richards (2 goals, 7 assists, +7) and Loui Eriksson (4 goals, 1 assist, +7). If Lehtonen can continue his solid play with the help of the Stars team focus on defense I expect this team to mirror the success of the Coyotes last year and finish in the top half of the western conference playoff picture.


3) The Canadians management might have been on to something: When the Canadians traded goalie and playoff hero Jaroslav Halak to the Blues in the offseason the Canadian fans made their displeasure known through near riots. The Canadian's management had always been Carey Price supporters and they went "all in" when they traded Halak who led the overmatched Canadians to upset victories over Washington and Pittsburgh last season. Halak has been as a good as expected in St. Louis with a 2.00 GAA and .909 save percentage and is the Blues' look time solution in net. Carey Price has rewarded the Canadian's faith in him by coming into the season in shape and focused, in typical Canadian fashion he has been forced to face a lot of rubber and has performed well through five with a 2.57 GAA and .914 save percentage. Price looks to be the franchise goaltender the team thought he was when they gave him the job as a 21 year old and by trading Halak while his value was high they were able to get back prized prospect Lars Eller, who was the 13th pick in the 07' draft. Eller should be the #1 center in Montreal soon and this will be viewed as an ideal trade that benefited both teams and a win for the Canadian's management.


4) The Central division in the NHL's best: There are no easy nights in this division that is occupied by the defending champ Blackhawks, Red Wings, Predators, Blues, and Blue Jackets. The Hawks (3-2-1) were forced to get under the cap in the off-season, but still have all of their young skill and look poised to make another run this season with Marian Hossa back after injury. The Red Wings (3-1-1) look to be back to the same old Red Wings and with Jimmy Howard on the verge of stardom in net this could be the first Red Wing team in memory that has a goalie capable of winning games on his own. The Predators (3-0-1) are the most underrated team in the league and are a team no one wants to see come playoff time. The Blues (2-1-1) have built through the draft over the past five years and have a young core that reminds me of the recent Pens and Hawks teams (Perron, Backes, Oshie, Johnson) and the addition of Halak in net makes the Blues a team on the verge. Columbus (2-2-0) looks to be the only team in the division that would be a stretch to make the playoffs and that is mostly due to their division heavy schedule.


5) Washington wouldn't run away with the Southeast like last year: The Caps were the only team in the division to make the playoffs last season (even if it was only for 6 games) and won the division by an outlandish 30 points. That wouldn't happen this year for a couple reasons; first off the Caps know their entire season will be judged on the playoffs so look for more than the usual nights off for the Caps better players and rest at any hint of injury like Mike Green already this week. The bigger reason why this division will not be a run-away is that the other teams have improved. Tampa Bay (3-1) will be more than just Stamkos and St. Louis under GM Steve Yzerman, and his hand-picked coach Guy Boucher will get more out of this talented roster. Atlanta (3-2-0) was the biggest benefactors from the Hawks off-season fire-sale and with early wins over Washington and San Jose they look to be a young team that is more than feisty. Carolina (2-2-0) is only a year removed from a trip to the conference finals with the same core and Florida (2-2) might have the worst offense in the NHL, but as they proved on their western conference road trip they don't need to score too many with goalie Tomas Vokoun (1.26 GAA, .952 Save %, 2 shutouts).


6) Colorado's young guys are resilient: The Avalanche were a popular pick to take a step back this year after making the playoffs last year and scaring the Sharks in the first round. The first five games of this season were difficult with a home game vs. Chicago followed by road games @Philly, Det, NJ, NYI, the Avalanche came through this stretch at 3-2 and their young guys played well during this opening stretch. Center's Paul Stastny (2 goals, 3 assists) and Matt Duchene (1 goal 4 assists) lead two quality lines and wingers Chris Stewart (3 goals, 2 assists) and TJ Galiardi (2 goals, 1 assist) have shown the ability to finish against good teams. The defense is a little thin and the Av's need Craig Anderson (2.99 GAA, .915 Save %) to continue to handle all the action in their end, but this opening 5 game stretch proved that talk of their step back this season is off base.


7) Can the Pens contend with Brent Johnson as their goalie: The Pens have little room for error with a team that is short on quality wingers who can finish and a defense that is more transition than shutdown, so quality goaltending is the difference between wins and losses. Brent Johnson is 3-0 with a 1.32 GAA and a .953 Save % while Marc Andre Fleury is 0-3 with a 3.41 GAA and a .853 Save %. These stats are even more startling when you consider Johnson beat the Isles at home and has road victories over the Devils and Flyers. It will be interesting to see if this is just a rough patch for Fluery or if there are bigger problems, but as the Blackhawks proved last year sometimes you need to bench the salary cap anchor and ride the guy who is hot.


8) Are the Devils suffering from "Stockholm Syndrome": When former player John MacLean replaced Jacques Lemaire as coach of the Devils the prevailing sentiment was that the skilled Devil forwards would really blossom in an up tempo system and the Devils would be (gasp) exciting. Instead the forwards have been non-existent on offense and major liabilities on defense and have Devil fans pinning for the days of Lemaire, his trap, and wins. The Devils are 1-4-1, -11 in goal differential and are lead in goals by big money free agent Kovalchuk and re-acquired Jason Arnott with only 2. Meanwhile Kovy is (-3) and Arnott is (-7) joining the likes of captain Jamie Langenbrunner (-6), Zubrus (-5) and Tallinder (-5).


9) Is this first family of hockey going to be the first casualties of the season in Calgary: It looked to be the perfect situation when coach Brent Sutter left New Jersey two seasons ago to join his brother Daryl the GM in Calgary. The Flames were built on solid defense, goaltending, and opportunistic offense and the roster looked to be ideal for Brent to turn them into contenders. Instead the team has underperformed and more importantly has looked uninterested and has failed to compete on a nightly basis. Last season's blockbuster trade that sent Phaneuf to Toronto brought back Matt Stajan and Hagman, neither whom have ignited the offense and free agency brought back two Flame re-treads in Ollie Jokinen and Alex Tanguay. After a 1-2 start and an ugly home shutout loss to Florida the team had a two hour pre-practice meeting where everyone was given a chance to speak their peace. The Flames rallied for a third period comeback victory in their next game vs. Edmonton, but that still leaves them with 3 well played periods out of 12 this year. The combination of poor roster moves, the inability to get this team motivated, and lengthy pre-practice meetings 3 games into the season does not bode well for Sutter brothers and me personally as it would be hard for me to fathom a Flame team without a Sutter in charge.


10) What has happened to the better goaltenders around the league: I already talked about Marc-Andre Fluery (0-3, 3.41 GAA, .853 Save %) and he is not alone in the struggling goaltender category. Martin Brodeur (1-3-1, 3.18 GAA, .887 Save %), Ryan Miller (1-3-1, 2.63 GAA, .911 Save %), Roberto Luongo (1-2-1, 2.46 GAA, .920 Save %), Miika Kiprusoff (2-2, 2.75 GAA, .893 Save %), Antii Niemi (1-1, 3.05 GAA, .900 Save %) all have struggled early in the season. I wouldn't push the panic button yet on this small sample size, but it will be an interesting trend to follow.


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