Total Time, NFL Style

The end of the summer and the start of NFL football gives you chance to make a few bucks betting win totals while putting together your fantasy draft charts. Below are the win totals for all NFL teams and some thoughts courtesy of my own plays this fall. 1) Detroit (5) St. Louis (5) Cleveland (5.5) Tampa Bay (5.5) Buffalo (5.5) The first team and total to jump out at me was Buffalo to go under not only do they have to play the rest of the AFC East twice, but they also have the AFC and NFC North divisions on the schedule. Buffalo has Jacksonville, Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh in what looks like their most winnable home games with a road game at KC as their best chance for a win on the road. This looks to me like a team headed for one of the worst records in football and a great chance to draft a much needed quarterback next year to go with a promising running back committee. The prospect of Jake Delhomme as your starting QB is scarier than Michael Lohan teaching a parenting class, but the Browns defense and running game should help them threaten mediocrity. Winnable road games starting with the opener in Tampa along with @Jax and @Buf should leave the Browns needing only 3 home wins vs. the likes of Cincy, Pittsburgh, KC, Atlanta and Carolina for the Browns to go over the win total. Tampa has home games vs. Cleveland, St Louis, Detroit and Seattle, but would still need a couple of upsets at home or a couple on the road to go over, not too likely with @Wash looking like their best chance on the road. Detroit seems like an upcoming team on offense but a shaky defense and the NFC and AFC East on the schedule don't ensure the over. St. Louis has a more favorable schedule with the NFC South and AFC West, but a rookie quarterback makes the over a risky play as well. 2) Oakland (6) Kansas City (6.5) Both AFC West teams have the AFC South and NFC West divisions on their schedules along with games against each other, Denver and San Diego twice. Oakland only has two home games where they will be decent favorites (St. Louis and Seattle), while home games vs. Houston, Diego, Denver, Miami, and Indy will be tough. Out of division road games @Tenn, Pittsburgh, Jax, San Fran, and Arizona look to me like Jason Campbell's first year in Oakland will be a fight to push the win total and more likely Oakland will go under. Meanwhile Kansas City gets San Fran, Arizona, Jax, and Buffalo at home with winnable out of division road games @Seattle, Cleveland, and St. Louis. This looks like a schedule that could lead to KC going over in year 2 of New England Midwest. 3) Jacksonville (7) Arizona (7.5) Seattle (7.5) Carolina (7.5) Denver (7.5) Washington (7.5) The 7, 8, 9 win totals is where you will find the majority of NFL teams and some teams at these totals are likely to make a big jump up or down. I like Carolina to take a step forward, a very favorable schedule with home games vs. Tampa, Cincy, Chicago, San Fran, NO, Balt, Atl, and Arz and winnable road games @NYG, St. Louis, Seattle, Cleveland makes Carolina over one of my must plays. Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams lead the team while giving fantasy owners headaches, solid drafting has given Matt Moore or Jimmy Clausen more options than just Steve Smith. I also like Washington to go over in Mike Shanahan's first year, McNabb should help stabilize the offense and add more points/game for the Skins who along with the rest of the NFC East play the NFC North and AFC South this year. Road games @Detroit, Chicago, Jax, and St. Louis should allow the Skins to pick up more wins outside of the division and a .500 record seems reasonable. On the other end of the spectrum I see Jacksonville and Seattle going under their win totals. Jacksonville playing in the increasingly difficult AFC South and also having to play the NFC East seems like a natural choice to take a step backwards this year. Pete Carroll might be looking for another team to jump to in the offseason after enduring a year with QB Matt Hasselback and most likely backup Charlie Whitehurst after Hasselback gets hurt early. Arizona and Denver are both interesting teams with more questions than the movie "Inception". Can Arizona replace Dansby on defense and can Leinart play effectively enough to keep defenses away from the line of scrimmage and Beanie Wells? Who will be the quarterback in Denver and can Brandon Marshall be replaced? Do they have a healthy running back and a defense that can hold up over an entire season? You need a gut feeling or a crystal ball to predict these two totals. 4) Chicago (8) Cincinnati (8) Miami (8.5) New York Giants (8.5) Houston (8) San Francisco (8.5) Philadelphia (8.5) Tennessee (8.5) Cincinnati's addition of TO and all the talk surrounding the defending NFC North champs and the schedule that brings has me taking Cincy to go under. The AFC East and NFC South are on the schedule along with games @Indy and at home vs. Diego outside of the division. The Bengals have never responded well to expectations and I don't think that changes this year. The Giants have been spending the offseason trying to sure up a defense that last year was as stout as Kate Moss. The offseason defensive re-building will be on display against the NFC North and AFC South. The Redskins should be more than a doormat this year and the Giants will need a strong start with @Minny, home vs. Philly, @Green Bay, and @Wash as their final four games. I am as optimistic about that stretch of games as I am about their re-built D and will take the Giants to go under. I wouldn't be surprised to see Miami make a playoff run with the addition of Brandon Marshall, the running game, and Chad Henne gaining valuable experience last year. Their last 8 games are home vs. Tennessee and Chicago, @Oakland, home vs. Cleveland, @NY Jets, home vs. Buffalo and Detroit, and @NE. This finishing stretch should allow the Dolphins to rack up 6 wins and put them at or near double digit wins for the year and makes the Dolphins to go over a good play. It would be easy to assume that the Eagles would take a step back in the first year of the Kevin Kolb era, but a look at the schedule and the five out of division road games (Detroit, Jacksonville, San Fran, Tennessee, and Chicago) makes the Eagles to go over look like a solid play. The Eagles also get Green Bay, Minnesota, Indy, and Houston all at home in what looks like a schedule the gang from "It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia" drew up one night at Paddy's Pub. The Bears big name free agent additions fitting into the Bears schemes and how well Jay Cutler and the offensive can adapt to Mike Martz are pressing questions that make the Bears a boom or bust candidate. With the NFC and AFC East on the schedules I am going with bust and the Bears to go under. Both Houston and San Francisco are interesting teams and totals to match, San Fran seems very capable of winning the mediocre NFC West and with @Seattle, home vs. N.O., @KC, and @Atlanta to start the year, 2-2 would be a great start and a good sign for the over. Houston has the AFC West to offset the NFC East and getting Dallas and Diego at home are good breaks, while Tennessee has to travel to both Dallas and Diego in what might be the difference between the two teams and their totals. 5) Pittsburgh (9) Atlanta (9) Green Bay (9.5) Minnesota (9.5) New England (9.5) New York Jets (9.5) Dallas (9.5) Atlanta is a popular pick to bounce back this year and make the playoffs the schedule has them playing the NFC West and AFC North. They visit Pittsburgh to begin the season along with trips to Cleveland, Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Seattle outside of the division. In turn they get Arizona, San Fran, Baltimore, and Green Bay at home. This schedule should be enough to push at the very least and I like Atlanta to go over. Pittsburgh will be without their starting quarterback for the first four games of the year and no matter what their record is after four, Roethlisberger will open at home vs. Cleveland and then will travel consecutively to Miami, New Orleans, and Cincinnati and then return home vs. New England in his first five starts. That stretch with a rusty quarterback that a franchise has sold their soul for looks like a great reason to take Pittsburgh to go under. New England and the New York Jets have identical totals and almost identical schedules, the Jets have been more hyped than the movie "Grown Ups" and I expect them to be just as underwhelming. New England seems primed for a bounce back year with Brady fully healthy and if my choices are Brady and Belichick vs. Sanchez and Ryan that is easier choosing my favorite "Hard Knocks" season (Kansas City hands down). I like NE to go over and the NYJ to go under. Green Bay and Minnesota are also co-division favorites with the same totals and almost identical schedules with the big difference being the status of Favre. He is the key to both team's totals and his reluctance to commit due to injury has to tip the division in favor of the Packers slightly. Unless you are on Favre's lawn with Ed Werder or in the X-ray room with James Andrews these are two totals you want to stay away from like Brett Favre and committing to a decision. Dallas has a difficult out of division road schedule traveling to Houston, Minnesota, Green Bay, Indy, and Arizona, but you have to believe that if the Cowboys get even two of those games they are a good bet to reach double digit wins. 6) Baltimore (10) New Orleans (10.5) Indianapolis (11) San Diego (11) Indy in the regular season during the Payton Manning years has been as consistent as the "A-Team" and the schedule this year sets up for Indy to go over the total. The NFC East and AFC West are on the schedule and the out of division road games are Denver, Washington, Philadelphia, New England, and Oakland. The schedule also has the Giants, Cincy, Dallas, and Diego coming to Indy. That is as soft as a Syracuse basketball pre-conference slate and should be a major factor in determining home field in the playoffs. San Diego should also take advantage of a schedule that includes the AFC South and NFC West, and their out of division road games are Seattle, St. Louis, Houston, Cincy, and Indy and Diego is also a good bet to go over the total. Baltimore and New Orleans don't have the schedule advantages of Indy and Diego which is reflected in their totals. Seven of Baltimore's eight road games all against playoff caliber teams (NYJ, Cincy, Pittsburgh, NE, Atlanta, Carolina, and Houston) and out of division home games include New Orleans, Miami, and Denver making one of the AFC favorites a tough bet to reach 10 wins. New Orleans doesn't have the same depth in their schedule due to their division and the NFC West, but out of division road games @SF, Arizona, Dallas, Cincy, and Baltimore will make 11 wins a success for the defending Super Bowl champs.