Total Time, College Style

A few weeks ago I took a look at NFL totals and gave my thoughts and plays. This week I have picked out a few plays from the college ranks as I look to get over my Dustin Johnson PGA Championship play. All college totals include regular season games only and every game on the schedule must be played for the total to be in play. The "every game must be played" clause has come into play in recent years due to weather cancelling games that were never made up.



First I will start with the teams I like to go UNDER:



Ohio State (10.5): A chalk pick to play for the national title; the SI cover boys are coming off an impressive performance in Pasadena where they beat up on Oregon. They bring back Heisman hopeful Terrelle Pryor and his favorite target and member of the great name team DeVier Posey. The defense is as stout as expected from a Jim Tressel team led by LB's Brian Rolle and Ross Homan. The 10.5 win total is based on the assumption that Pryor will pick up where he left off last year in the Rose Bowl. Like a season of the "Real Housewives" Pryor can be spectacular but also inconsistent and I don't think one game vs. the Pac 10 champs has solved that problem. Two of OSU's four road games are @Wiscy and @Iowa where boths team are capable of running straight at the undersized front seven. They also play their second game of the year at home vs. a talented Miami team that is capable of making a national statement in Columbus. The combination of those three games and the offense's inconsistency has me taking OSU to go under.



LSU (7.5): Les Miles, who takes over for Phil Fulmer as the SEC coach on the hot seat, will start 7 Tigers on defense who are juniors or younger and their offense will rest on the shoulders of QB Jordan Jefferson. Jefferson will have to make a drastic improvement this year to push defenses away from the line of scrimmage and take better care of the ball so he doesn't put his own defense in bad situations. He will not get a chance to get his feet wet as LSU opens the season in the Georgia Dome vs. a North Carolina team that has more NFL defensive players on their roster than the Rams. A bad showing in the opener could easily carry over to a schedule that features road games @Vandy, Florida, Auburn, and Arkansas. Only one of those games looks like a sure win and LSU also has tough home games vs. Miss St, WVU, Bama, and Miss. LSU will have to improve on their 0-6 record the last two years vs. Florida, Bama, and Miss to have any chance of winning 8 games. This combination of QB, inexperienced defense, and head coach has me taking LSU to go under.



Pittsburgh (8): The popular pick to win the Big East and play in a BCS bowl game are big expectations for any Dave Wannstedt coached team that doesn't include Jay Fielder. An unsettled QB situation will make Dion Lewis the center of the offense and in turn he will get all the attention from opposing defenses. Out of conference games beginning with the opener @Utah, home vs. Miami and @ND are not locks and finishing the season @Conn, @S. Fla, home vs. WVU, and @Cincy puts 8 wins in doubt. The opener @Utah is a huge game as evidenced by the team not suspending recently arrested DE Jabaal Sheard after assualt charges and this game will go a long way in determining Pitt's win total. I like Utah and the season ending stretch has me taking Pittsburgh to go under.



Colorado (6.5): While Colorado plays out the next year of two in Big 12 purgatory it is very unlikely that Dan Hawkins will make it to the Pac-10 as head coach. Only the return of Koy Detmer as QB could save this team from going under the win total. The schedule has them on the road @Cal, Mizz, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska; while at home vs. Colorado St, Hawaii, Georgia, Baylor, Texas Tech, Iowa St, and Kansas St. Even returning the majority of their offense winning five games seems like a stretch for the team that will be battling Washington St in a year or two for 11th place in the Pac-?.



The teams I like to go OVER:



Washington (6): The Huskies have a senior quarterback in Jake Locker who is projected as the first pick in next year's NFL draft and a coach in Steve Sarkisian who upgraded the roster upon arrival and returns 17 starters from last year. Washington's schedule isn't ideal beginning with the opener @BYU followed by home games vs. Syracuse and Nebraska before playing @USC. Their four remaining road games are Arizona, Oregon, Cal, and Wash St. Three of those last four road games should be winnable and in a wide open Pac-10 Washington seems like a team that could take a step forward. As the early 90's proved Husky stadium can be a tough place for visiting teams and with a future #1 pick at QB and a coach on the rise I like Washington to go over the win total.



Arkansas (8.5): The key to Arkansas' win total will be their defense. Last year they ranked near the bottom of the SEC in every defensive stat, but should be improved this year under former NFL defensive coach Willy Robinson as cordinator. A slight defensive improvement is all that is needed for an offense that is led by Ryan Mallett and should allow Arkansas to contend in the SEC. Mallett is one of 9 offensive starters that returns to a unit that is deep and explosive. The schedule has four road games @Georgia, Auburn, South Carolina, and Miss St, while Alabama is at home and Florida is not on the schedule. Having at least two potentially winnable road games and Miss and LSU at home should be enough to allow Arkansas to go over the win total.



Georgia Tech (8): Paul Johnson and the triple option scheme his team employs are always a tough matchup for an opponent with only a week or two to game-plan. Preparing for Georgia Tech should be even more difficult this season as Louisville trasfer Anthony Allen becomes the lead running back and QB Josh Nesbitt enters his third season in the offense. With Al Groh bringing his 3-4 defense and knowledge of the conference to Tech a return trip to a BCS bowl is a strong possibility. Playing in the ACC Coastal division with games @UNC, vs. UVA, @VTech, vs. Miami, vs. Duke as well as out of conference games @Kansas and @Georgia doesn't leave many easy wins, but even with that slate I like GT to go over the win total.



Stanford (7.5): While Oregon and Oregon St. replace QB's this season, Stanford will utilize Sophomore Andrew Luck more this season after the graduation of Toby Gerhart. Seven starters along with Luck return for John Harbaugh who will continue to field job offers from the NFL after this season. The schedule has the Cardinal @UCLA, ND, Oregon, Washington, Arizona St, and Cal; if Stanford can win half of those road games they should be closer to 9 wins than 7. I expect Stanford to battle for the Pac-10 title and in turn go over the win total.