Monday, August 2, 2010

NL Central

St. Louis (59-46): The perennial contenders are back at the top of the division led by the 1-2 punch of Wainwright and Carpenter. Those two make a daunting challenge in any playoff series. Wainwright has really taken the next step to staff ace with a 15-6 record and 2.19 ERA and is in the middle of the Cy Young discussion. St. Louis traded for Jake Westbrook at the deadline and like Chris Carpenter (11-3, 3.05 ERA), both are guys who can beat you without their best stuff. Brad Penny was on his way to being Dave Duncan's latest reclamation project until a back injury sent him to the DL, he should be returning soon and will stabilize the back end of the rotation with Kyle Lohse. Dave Duncan is to pitchers what Dr. Drew is to celebrities, and solid pitching keeps the Cards near the top of the division every year. Pujols is not hitting for the same average (.301) he is accustomed to, but his 25 HR's and 72 RBI's show he is still one of the most dangerous run producers in the game. Matt Holliday has been on a recent tear and he is just below Pujols in run producing numbers (.306 avg, 20 HR's, 65 RBI's). Those two will be seeing less and less to hit as the season comes to a close as teams look for Rasmus, Schumaker and rookie John Jay to beat them. The one concern for the Cards has to be the back end of the bullpen and Ryan Franklin who has more smoke and mirrors than David Copperfield. His 19 saves and 2.95 ERA are not terrible, but his inability to make hitters miss cost them in the playoffs last year and could force Tony LaRussa to turn to Rick Vaughn like Jason Motte to miss more bats down the stretch. Wainwright, Carpenter could help take that decision away from LaRussa with some dominating games.


Cincy (59-47): Former Cards GM Walt Jocketty has rebuilt the Reds into the Big Red Machine 2.0. The Reds are top 5 in the league in average, HR's, and RBI's and are led by Joey Votto, his numbers are very impressive (.325 avg, 27 HR's, 72 RBI's, 1.030 OPS) and if the Reds make it to the post season he should be the hands down NL MVP. Scott Rolen finding his power (18 HR's and 62 RBI's) after last season's trade to Cincy along with the Orlando Cabrera signing, who wins wherever he plays has made Jocketty look like Danny Ocean. Picking up Johnny Gomes, who was known mostly as the Ray's bouncer and mascot with a Mohawk has also paid dividends with his character, leadership and 10 HR's (One of 6 reds with at least 10 HR's). Johnny Cueto (10-2, 3.32 ERA) and Mike Leake (7-2, 3.57 ERA) have emerged as the leaders of the pitching staff, both are young guys and with that comes the biggest question of the Reds season and future. Can Dusty Baker keep them healthy? Baker treats young arms David Hasslehoff treats an open bar and goes through them faster than Bonds went through steroid cycles under Baker's watch (Mark Prior and Kerry Wood are both holding their right arms and nodding right now). Edinson Volquez recently returning from injury and Aroldis Chapman, who is as hot in Louisville as Rick Pitino with the ladies gives the Reds the option of going to a six man rotation in spots down the stretch. Having those options should help, but it will not be surprising to see Cueto and Leake running up 120+ pitch counts as Dusty works over a toothpick in September. Another reason for the Red's success has been their defense, which has committed only 39 errors, 25 less then St. Louis.


Milwaukee (48-58): It is only fitting that the Brewers have the lineup that most resembles a beer league softball team. There is power throughout the lineup, Corey Hart (23 HR's) and Ricky Weeks (22 HR's) have enjoyed breakout seasons to combine with Fielder (24) and Braun (16) to make the Brewers a tough lineup to pitch against. The inability to surround this core with guys who can get on base has left too many of their HR's solo shots. Shortstop Alceides Escobar looks like he will be a guy who can contribute consistently, but is still learning this year. Carlos Gomez, who was once the main prospect in the Santana trade looks to be a platoon outfielder and pinch runner. Yovoni Gallardo (9-4, 2.45 ERA) has battled injuries, but when healthy is a quality #1 with a 9.71 K/9 and that is about all you can say about Brewer pitching. Dave Bush and Randy Wolf have ERA's hovering around 5 and opposing teams were as happy as Ricki Rachtman to hear AC/DC's Hells Bells before Hoffman was taken out of late inning situations. John Axford (18 saves, 2.81 ERA) looks like the real deal as a closer and power arm out of the bullpen, but a lack of quality starters and save chances will leave him as used as a dictionary in Jessica Simpson's house. Before looking for starters behind Gallardo and men to get on base ahead of the middle of the order, the Brewers first need to go back to the pinstripe blue uniforms of the Robin Yount era. Only wearing them a couple times a year is as wrong as leaving a velvet blazer in a back closet.


Chicago (46-59): As the inglorious Lou Pinella era comes to end the Cubs have some bright spots with rookies Tyler Colvin (leads rookies with 16 HR's) and Starlin Castro (2nd among rookies with .305 avg) who are future regulars and will combine with Soto and free agent pick up Marlin Byrd (.311 avg, 10 HR's, 45 RBI's) and give the Cubs a solid up the middle core. The Cubs also pulled an Oceans 11 like heist by unloading Milton Bradley and getting back Carlos Silva (10-5, 3.96 ERA). Silva, Wells, Dempster are a serviceable back end of the rotation. The Cubs have all of the complimentary pieces in place this year as all of their so called stars have flamed out like the cast of Stand by Me. Carlos Zambrano has managed to combine the crazy elements of Ron Artest's personality with the fighting mentality of CT from Real World Paris that forced the Cubs to make him a reliever then send him home and to the minors. His fight with Derrick Lee (.246 avg, 12 HR's, 48 RBI's) who looks older than Betty White had to make Pinella's decision much easier. Aramis Ramirez (.222 avg, 15 HR's, 48 RBI's) has picked up the pace to mediocrity after coming off the DL and Alfonso Soriano (.266 avg, 18 HR's, 66 RBI's) has managed decent numbers while seemingly to never produce a clutch hit. At least the most tortured fans in sports can still enjoy an afternoon at Wrigley, which is a scene unmatched in sports while waiting for next season.


Houston (45-59): The Astros season has turned out like Paul Blart; Mall Cop, hopes for respectability or maybe a little more have turned into a total flop. Acknowledging this fact Houston traded mainstays Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman to Philly and New York respectively. Oswalt rebounded this year and in turn the Astros were able to acquire a promising starter in J.A. Happ and a promising prospect, while Berkman who has struggled all year wasn't able to fetch as much. Un-trade-able Carlos Lee(.237 avg, 14 HR's, 52 RBI's, .675 OPS) is sporting the Paul Blart physique while playing a defensive right field only Adam Dunn or Manny could love. Wandy Rodriguez has rebounded over the last two months to lower his ERA to under 5 and Brett Myers (3.10 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) has produced a google like return after being picked up off the junk heap from Philly. Michael Bourn, Hunter Pence, Matt Lindstrom, and Brandon Lyon all have certain skills that would compliment a contender, but are miscast as a winning core. Hopefully for Houston fans the Astros can turn a couple of those names into a minor league core this winter while the Texans and Rockets are in playoff races.


Pittsburgh (36-67): On the way to 18 straight losing seasons, the Bucs are hanging their hopes on better player development facilities, a young offensive core, and the best stadium in the major leagues. The player development facilities could be a convenient front to explain where all the revenue sharing money they receive from MLB goes, while the young offensive core does show some signs of progress. Neil Walker, Jose Tabatha, and Pedro Alvarez all opened the season in the minors and all three are reason for the Pirates to optimistic about the future. Andrew McCutchen (.292 avg, 8 HR's, 32 RBI's, 21 SB's) and Garret Jones (.275 avg, 14 HR's, 61 RBI's) round out the order that will use the second half of the season to find the best mix and gain experience as a group. Even with the offensive upside of this group, they will need runs in the double digits to win consistently with the pitching staff as it is currently assembled. Paul Maholm leads the staff with 6 wins and a 4.52 ERA, which is like being the tallest midget. Harder to believe than the continuing fascination with the Kardashian family were teams trying to acquire him at the deadline. Zack Duke and Ross Ohlendorf fill out a rotation that has some good options as four and five starters, but absolutely no #1's or 2's. We have covered the Pirate issues in previous posts and they are worth re-visiting, but the Clipper like run of failed first round picks shine brightly when looking at their staff. Brad Lincoln mysteriously lost 5 mph on this fastball after making it to the majors and had to be sent back down to save his battered confidence. In AAA he joined formerly demoted Charlie Morton who took a Michael Spinks like beating in ten major league starts. In part cost savings and in part to acquire middling minor league prospects the Pirates shredded their bullpen (the best part of the current team) at the deadline and received only one player with major league upside in Chris Snyder. The good news is they do still play in the nicest stadium in baseball.


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