Hello Friends and welcome to a week where the golfing and sports world celebrates a course and tournament that has a legacy of racism and has about the same amount of respect for women as a cross between Bill Clinton, Ron Franklin and Isiah Thomas. All of that gets forgotten for a week as Jim Nantz acts like a teenage boy on his first trip to a "Hooters" restaurant as he describes the scenic Augusta National course while everyone watching on TV is forced to come to grips with the fact that a goofball like Nantz has a job where he goes from calling the Final Four to the Masters all in the same week. The Masters signifies the coming of spring and the start of the golf season, that is unless you are in an ultra competitive fantasy golf league that tiers tournaments based on field strength and spans both the PGA and Euro tour and holds an annual 5 hour early January draft to determine teams (sign #579 that you might have a sports and/or gambling problem). The limited field, prestige of the course, lack of commercials, quality of the champions (minus recent winner Angel Cabrera), and slot in the sports calendar after the Final Four and prior to NBA and NHL playoffs makes it the most popular golf tournament in this country. If you are wondering how this can be when the history of the course and membership is as inclusionary as 1930's Germany, sports is always seen through rose color glasses, just ask any Lakers/Kobe or Steelers/Ben fan. On to the important part of this year's tournament, the odds.
The Long-shots: You aren't going to find a Steve Jones like US open long-shot in this group due to the limited Masters field, but you might find a recent winner like Cabrera or Immelman.
Weir (300/1): At 40 this former champ seems as over the hill as Carlos Beltran in a major league outfield.
Molder (300/1): First timer who will relish the walk, but Augusta is a tough place to get your first PGA victory even for a former GTech star.
Howell (200/1): Local product who hasn't played here in 2 years or made the cut in three. Like Carlos Gomez at one time he was a rising star.
P. Hanson (150/1): Solid value play on a world class player who showed he can contend with his Sunday in Doral. His big negative being this is his first trip to this tourney.
Oosthuizen (125/1): Cut in his only two appearances at Augusta, but you could have said the same thing before he won the British last year. Odds say he is a one hit wonder, but if you think he is here to stay 125 is great value. I tend to side wtih the second line of thinking.
Overton (125/1): Love his upside, but again a first appearance and no PGA tour wins scream stay away.
Tim Clark (125/1): Finished 2nd here in 06' and has thirds at the US Open and PGA to go along with his Players Championship. Double the odds he should be due to early season and current injury concerns.
Allenby (125/1): 125 seemed too high, until I saw his record at Augusta, Cavs have better numbers.
Cink (100/1): Finished 3rd here in '08 and has a major championship game, but I get the feeling he would need another Tom Watson last hole collapse to win another major.
The Major League crew: Like the movie you have some former champs who are past their prime or out of form and some extremely young guys who seem a year or two away.
Immelman (80/1): The '08 champ has played sparingly the last two years due to wrist tendonitis, an injury for a golfer that is akin to Tommy John surgery for a pitcher.
Cabrera (80/1): Nobody has enjoyed the lifestyle that comes with two major victories more and the current state of his game shows it.
Z. Johnson (80/1: His poor recent form is the most surprising of the four former champs at this number. The recent low winning scores at this tourney isn't what he does best and his victory at (+1) looks like an outlier. He can still wedge it and putt. If the conditions are tough 80/1 is good value.
Couples (80/1): He is 51 years old and next year will be 10 years since he won his only major here, but if I told you one of these four former champs was going to contend, I bet Couples would be your answer.
Karlsson (80/1): The Roger Dorn of this group, his game looks great on the range and he is a favorite sleeper pick of golf writers before every major, but he doesn't have the heart to win one.
Marino (80/1): Finished 14th year last year in his first appearance for a guy who has contended weekly this season. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the top ten this week, but again a win here would be his first.
Day (80/1): Won on tour last year and played well at the end of last season in the Fed Ex cup along with a 10th in the PGA. He hasn't carried that success over to this year and will take a wobbly game to his first Masters tee time.
Moore (80/1): Finished 10th year last year and has played decent up to this point this year. This is a good number for a guy who plays with a tie on the one course where that doesn't seem out of place.
Quiros (80/1): Won in Dubai and has a ton of game, especially with full clubs. Missed the cut both times he played in this tourney and showed he needed some short game work. A guy I would rather have a year too early than one year too late.
Schwartzel (80/1): Top 30's in all four majors last season show that he is ready to breakthrough on the world stage. Of all ten at this number I think Schwartzel has the most value and the best chance to win.
The Sleepers and Underachievers: This group contains some sleepers due to their play this year or at Augusta and some underachievers who have made millions, but should have won more and won big.
Sabbatini (75/1): Finished second here in 07' and has rebounded from an awful year last year with a gritty win at the Honda, but his price isn't as appealing as some others with more value.
Haas (75/1): I had him pegged at about 100/1 and loved that value, but Vegas had this guy sniffed out. Two wins on the tour last year and an 18th at Augusta are good signs for his future. Another top 20 and he will be under 50/1 next spring.
Snedeker (60/1): Finished third here in '08; what an outlier the '07 and 08' tournaments were with Johnson winning at +1 in '07 the first over par winner since '56 with Sabbatini 2nd and Immelman winning in 08' with Sned's shooting 77 on Sunday to finish 3rd. Watching those two Sundays on ESPN Classic has to be as brutal as being forced to watch Conn/Butler again.
Yang (60/1): Finished 8th last year and has played very well so far this season, a second major, especially at Augusta would more than validate his Tiger beating at the PGA. Trendy sleeper pick this year, but I think a win is asking too much.
Barnes (60/1): Half sleeper half underachiever, the '02 Amateur winner should have a tour win by now, but a 10th last season and a 21st as an amateur in '03 shows his value in this event.
Baddeley (60/1): He starts the run of guys at this number that have a real chance to win this weekend even with their pension to underachieve. Playing as well as anyone on tour this season, he has always played Augusta well due to his putting. I like him more than the next four guys who are all more heralded.
Scott (60/1): He hasn't won a tour event outside the state of Texas since '06, also the last year he contended in a major (PGA). A switch to the long putter has given hope to worst part of his game, but even 60/1 doesn't seem like enough of a value.
Ogilvy (60/1): Has one major thanks to a Mickelson 10 on the 72nd hole, but has the talent for much more. 4 of his 7 PGA wins are majors or World Golf events. Has a good record at Augusta and if healthy a serious threat to win, but he hasn't been healthy recently.
Els (60/1): He has 3 majors, but that number feels at least 3 too low. At 41 he is past the days of contending every time he plays at a major, but Augusta would be the one he wants the most. His play this season hasn't shown any signs that would make you want to back him this week.
Past their prime, or breakout stars? This group has four former major winners who are running out of chances to contend and a couple of young guns who could be the next big thing with wins.
Furyk (50/1): Contended a couple of times in majors since his US Open win in '03 and he made his year look better than it was with a Fed Ex Cup victory. The way he has played this season a top 20 would be a good showing.
Harrington (50/1): Took advantage of his major opportunities in '07 and '08 when the competition wasn't as strong. Even at his best this major is not his best chance.
Garcia (50/1): Make a strong argument that a golfer like a tennis player and figure skater can be washed up at 31. Hasn't finished inside the top 30 at Augusta since '04 and nothing in his game lately would suggest otherwise. 50/1 is too good of a number for a guy whose highlight from last year was being an assistant Ryder Cup captain.
Goosen (50/1): He finished 3rd, 3rd, 2nd from '05 to '07 in this event, so there is a possibility he could contend. He has looked every bit of his 42 years lately and hasn't shown the putting ability to warrant much confidence this week.
Stricker (50/1): A guy on the other end of the spectrum from Garica, he looks rejuvenated at 44 and I think he has the best value of all the players at 50/1. He is coming off a 30th and 7th at Augusta and has the wedge game and putting to win his elusive first major.
Singh (45/1): The former champ had his run of 11 straight top 30 Masters finishes end last year with a missed cut during a horrible year. He has rebounded nicely this season and a top 15 is in play, but I don't see a win.
Choi (45/1): Had a legit chance last year to win, a tough Sunday back 9 left him in fourth. He won't be anyone's pre-tournament pick, but at 45/1 has good value.
Kim (40/1): Shot 65 last year to finish 3rd and then missed the remainder of the season due to the dreaded wrist injury. Before the injury he looked poised for multiple majors, since his return he has looked un-interested and rusty. I hope I am wrong, but he seems too risky to back this week.
Poulter (40/1): Looked poised to break through in a major way after last season and the Ryder Cup, but hasn't followed through so far this season. In a real sign of Euro depth, at 40/1 there are still 8 Euro's with better odds on the board.
Fowler (40/1): It is risky taking a guy with 0 career PGA wins who is playing Augusta for the first time, but if anyone can get their first win at the Masters, it is Fowler. He has all the shots and the short game to contend and maybe more importantly seems to have the mindset.
The Contenders: Speaking of, is ESPN too busy showing women's hoops and NFL Live lockout editions to take on a season of the contender? I know the show isn't off the air because Sly Stallone and Buddy McGirt have better things to do. The show was great and now that it is off the air I have had to turn to FX's "Lights Out" to get my boxing drama, and even I have a limit on how many out of control storylines can take place during one season of a TV show.
Rose (30/1): He only has one top 10 in five Masters starts, but he seems to get more comfortable every year on American soil. In another show of Euro depth, a Rose win would be a surprise this week.
Mahan (30/1): After missing the cut in 08' he has finished 10th and 8th the past two years. Seems like he is in contention every week and I like his value at this number. He is winning a major soon it is just a matter of which one.
Casey (30/1): Had three straight top 20's until a MC last year, no question about his ball striking, but he hasn't been able to putt well enough to finish a major yet. Still at 30/1 he is never a bad play.
McDowell (30/1): This number seems too high for a guy who won the US Open last season and dominated the Ryder Cup. I didn't like him switching equipment in the off-season either and he doesn't have a track record at Augusta, but he is still a must play for me at this number.
Watson (25/1): What a difference a year makes, last year he didn't even qualify for the Masters and now there are only 9 players with lower odds. It will be very interesting to see him play his game around this course, but there isn't enough value in this number for me.
McIlroy (20/1): He has top 10's in the other 3 majors and contended in last year's British and PGA, but has only played the Masters twice (T20, MC). His odds this week show how much respect he gets every time he plays in a big event. I could see him winning his first major this year, I just don't know if it happens this week.
D. Johnson (20/1): Has finishes of 10th, 38th, 8th, 14th, and 5th in his last 5 major starts, so you know he will be in the discussion. The million dollar question with him is; can he keep it together to finally win a major? The threat of a penalty stroke or missed tee time is always there, but so also is a runaway victory which makes 20/1 a bet worth taking.
Kuchar (18/1): Last year was his first year playing Augusta since '02, making his 25th a nice finish. He racks up top 10's and makes more money than an investment banker, but how badly does he want to win a major? He is easy to root for, and is a good enough putter to win any week he is hitting the ball just OK, but a win this week would be a surprise.
Donald (18/1): Has as many MC's as top 10's (2 each) over his 6 career Masters starts, but has never entered the tournament playing as well as he is currently. He would be the odds on favorite if the Masters was match play instead of stroke play.
Kaymer (15/1): Anytime you can get the world #1 at 15/1 you have to at least like that value, but while he has a win and top 10's in the other 3 majors, he is 0-3 with 3 MC's at the Masters. No one has improved more in one year than Kaymer, but I don't think he goes from never playing a weekend to wining in Augusta.
Westwood (15/1): In his previous 6 majors prior to missing the PGA in August with an injury he finished 23rd, 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 16th, and 2nd. Since his return from injury he has dedicated his game to contending this week. I think he will contend and I am happy to get him for a number over 10/1.
Watney (12/1): He has played Augusta three times finishing 11th, 19th, and 7th and was quietly a "sleeper" until the best start to the '11 season of any one on tour. He has been in the top 15 every tournament he has played and showed major championship game and mettle coming from behind to win at Doral last month. In a field with no clear cut favorite, 12/1 is still a play worth making.
Mickelson (10/1): He should be the favorite; he knows and loves the course and won last week in Houston. He will try to be the first player to win the Masters after winning the previous week, which is bad karma for most, but something Mickelson relishes. Defending is always difficult, so even though I can't make a compelling argument against him winning, I am staying away.
Woods (8/1): You probably feel one of two ways about this number, either it is great anytime you can get Tiger at a good price on a course where he finished 5th last year in his first tourney back, or you can't believe a player who hasn't threatened in a calendar year can still be the favorite? There is no doubt about two things, his knows Augusta as well as anyone ever and his game is currently in flux. The biggest issue for Tiger this year is the depth of other quality players in the field. Unlike in past Masters, this new wave of players is not afraid of him. That doesn't mean he can't win it just means he will win only if playing his best.
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