Unlike in the NHL, round 1 in the NBA this season is a three week long appetizer until we get the contenders matching up in round 2. Anything over one upset in the first round would be a major shock to NBA followers and to Vegas based on these series prices. You have to give the NBA credit for extending round 1 longer than the NCAA tourney so that every game can be televised, because really who doesn't want three days in OKC between games 1 and 2 of the Thunder/Nuggets series? Below are the first round matchups and prices and a case for how the underdog in every series could make it interesting.
(1) Chicago Bulls (-3000) vs. (8) Indiana Pacers (+2000): The soft underbelly of the East is the only factor keeping this year's playoffs from being the best ever and is displayed with this number. My case for the Pacers winning a game would involve having all of their fans dress up like crazy clowns for their home games since Derrick Rose admitted this week to, like Kramer, being scared of clowns. That would immediately vault the Pacers fans into company with the Mexican soccer fans who took the coffin and dead body of their friend to a home game last week. The pressure will be on Danny Granger, who called out the Bulls in the media this week to back up his talk and be the best player on the floor one night for the Pacers to have a chance. If Danny Granger is your best player you are probably destined to be swept as the 8th seed in the East every season.
(2) Miami Heat (-2000) vs. (7) Philadelphia 76ers (+1200): Another troubling sign for the East was Philly starting off 2-13, but yet being comfortably in the playoffs by Christmas. There are a lot of good candidates, but Doug Collins gets my vote for coach of the year. After watching this same group of knuckleheads all last year, he has managed to keep them focused and in their specific roles all season and they maxed out their talent. My case for them extended this series to 5/6 games would start with the coaching mismatch and the feeling that Jrue Holiday will destroy the Bibby/Chalmers duo and force LeBron into guarding the other team's PG one round earlier than planned. In Andre Iguodala and Thad Young, the 76ers have the best perimeter defenders outside of Memphis, and watching them chase around Wade and LeBron would also be interesting theater for 6 games.
(3) Boston Celtics (-380) vs. (6) New York Knicks (+300): You could have made your year if you would have bet pre trade deadline that this potential series would be the lowest number on the board in the East. There is no doubt the Celts have been playing sideways at best lately, but even as a Knicks supporter I find it hard to believe they are getting such little respect. The Knicks can keep it interesting if Melo takes over games late and they get contributions from the Billups/Douglas backcourt. If Billups or most likely Douglas can keep Rondo in his post trade funk, then the Knicks have the guns to keep up offensively. Wasn't Rondo in the discussion for best point guard in the league last season at this time? The key for the Knicks in extending and possibly winning this series will be on defense, if they can force Allen and Pierce to work for everything offensively they can win. I should know better than to expect good defense from a Mike D'antoni coached team.
(4) Orlando Magic (-530) vs. (5) Atlanta Hawks (+425): Hands down the least exciting series of the first round. The Hawks were 3-1 vs. the Magic this season, so it isn't a tuurrrrrible matchup for the Hawks until you remember that they quit on their season around MLK day. It was as hard for me to type this next sentence as is for you to read it but, Jason Collins and is ankle could be the key to this series. Collins has done a good job limiting Howard, and without Howard dominating the paint all his no-defense, stand still shooting teammates are worthless no matter how much Stan Van Gundy screams and pulls at his turtleneck. Decent case for the underdog and almost makes you forget that the Hawks quit 3 months ago.
(1) San Antonio Spurs (-400) vs. (8) Memphis Grizzlies (+320): These series odds validated Memphis' decision to tank the final two games of the regular season to match up with the Spurs. As crazy as it sounds to want to play the Spurs, this might be the year since the Spurs play a perimeter game that revolves around hitting 3's and bench play, not great translators to post season success. Memphis is the team with the dominant low post scorer and the ability to lock down defensively on the perimeter, and if Mike Conley doesn't get dominated in the battle at the point the Grizz should compete. Manu Ginobili's elbow injury has him doubtful for Game 1 and any extended absence would level the playing field even further for the scariest 8 seed in recent memory.
(2) Los Angeles Lakers (-2200) vs. (7) New Orleans Hornets (+1400): The biggest mismatch in the first round. It is troubling when you can't make a case for a team with Chris Paul, but the defending champs should have their way down low against a Hornets front line of Okafor, Landry (not a bad college duo) and Marco Bellini. Hopefully Paul can torch the Lakers point guards enough in four games to give us a preview of what lies ahead in future series' this postseason. In my biggest surprise section of the first round, I can't believe these numbers aren't at least comparable to the Bulls/Pacers series. As for this series getting the best TV slots, very unsurprising.
(3) Dallas Mavericks (-210) vs. (6) Portland Trailblazers (+175): I love the value on Portland and this would technically be an upset, but I find it harder to make a case for Dallas in this series. Dirk is the best player on either team, but I would say Portland has the next best 4. Dallas needs to play their best home games of the season to get and win a game 7 in Dallas. Portland has been a different team since the Gerald Wallace trade and can throw multiple guys at Dirk and give the improved Mavs defense a variety of tough to handle sets and personnel. Tyson Chandler has been a force for Dallas, but a healthy Marcus Camby can neutralize the center position and allow Portland to rough up Dallas over the course of the series. My one concern with the Blazers would be their inability to consistently make shots, but if any team allows you to get to the hoop it is the Mavs perimeter defenders.
(4) Oklahoma City Thunder (-215) vs. (5) Denver Nuggets (+180): Brutal draw for both of these teams, but that is life in the West. This series gets my vote for potentially best of round 1 and the one I am most excited to watch. I think OKC is poised to make a run this year, but they will be tested off the bat against a deep running team that plays very well at home. Nagging injuries to Affalo, Lawson, and Nene hurt the case against the Nuggets, but they still have ample bodies to defend and wear down Durant and Westbrook. If Affalo and Lawson are limited due to injury the spotlight will be on former Knicks Chandler and Felton to be the primarily defenders of Durant and Westbrook which takes a lot of value out of the Nuggets number.
No comments:
Post a Comment