No sport changes more than hockey when the playoffs begin, not only does the intensity ramp up, but the actual rules change. No longer do you play a 4-4 five minute OT and then head to a shootout, no in the playoffs you keep battling full strength until one team scores the winner even if it takes all night. I like the 4-4 OT and shootouts in the regular season, because they are exciting and 82 games is already about 15 too many, but it is a dramatic change from playoff hockey. Can you imagine MLB ending tie games with a home run derby and not playing extra innings until the postseason? This time of year shootout specialists are put in the press box as the focus is on 3rd and 4th line grinders who make every shift difficult for their opponent. Today we will take a look at the Eastern conference matchups and save the Western conference for tomorrow.
(1) Washington Capitals (-215) vs. (8) New York Rangers (+185): Again this year the Caps find themselves as the top seed in the East, but unlike last year they have achieved the top spot due to their defense. High scorers Ovechkin, Semin, and Backstrom all finished with career lows in points this season as the Caps ranked 4th in the NHL in Goals Against (GAA). A dramatic change in Washington was needed after three straight playoff exits as the higher seed culminating in their loss last season to 8th seeded Montreal, but again this series all the pressure will be on the favorites. Most of that pressure will be on the shoulders of goalie Michael Neuvirth, who brings only AHL playoff experience to the net as Varlamov's replacement. The Caps will likely miss (D) Dennis Wideman for the entire series, but should have Mike Green back from a month absence with a concussion.
As for the Rangers, they held on to the last playoff spot due to the play of goalie Henrik Lundqvist, and they will need him to be the best player in the series to have a chance. The Rangers finished the season right behind the Caps ranked 5th in GAA, but have far less artillery in this fight. With Ryan Callahan out for at least this series with a broken ankle, the pressure will be on Marian Gaborik to shed his reputation as a guy who disappears in big games and score some goals. With so many 3rd and 4th liners masquerading as top 6 forwards New York could use some offense from defensemen Marc Staal and recently acquired Bryan McCabe.
The Rangers have the best goalie, so they have a chance and the price is appetizing, but I think the Caps will hold on as the series goes to 6 games.
(2) Philadelphia Flyers (-160) vs. (7) Buffalo Sabres (+140): These teams seem to find each other regularly in the postseason and this series has a chance to be as classic as some of their historically great matchups. The Flyers were the best team in the NHL until the last 25 games of the season, when they lost 16 of 25. No team has the depth the Flyers have up front with six 20 goal scorers along with 19 goal scorer Ville Leino and trade deadline pick up Kris Versteeg. Even with the best set of forwards east of Vancouver the key to the Flyers Stanley Cup hopes hinge on the health of Chris Pronger (day to day with a wrist injury) and the play in net of the Bobrovsky/Boucher combo. Quality Flyers playoff goaltending has been as hard to find as quality Chicago Bears quarterbacking, so both guys along with the defense will be under pressure if they continue their recent slide.
Buffalo has been playing playoff hockey since January and has gone 28-11-6 since their new ownership group took over. Thomas Vanek, Drew Stafford, and Tyler Ennis have stepped up their play to coincide with the loss of Derrick Roy to injury. Buffalo's defensive depth will be tested by all three of the Flyers offensive lines, but as all USA hockey fans know in Ryan Miller the Sabres have the best big game goalie in the world. Miller returned to the net this weekend after missing a week with an upper body injury and looked to be in playoff ready form. The Sabres are one of the least penalized teams in the NHL and if they can continue that trend in this series they have a great chance to frustrate the Flyers and extend the series.
I like the way Buffalo has been playing lately, while Philly has faltered, and any chance you get to take Ryan Miller as an underdog is a great opportunity. I like the Sabres in 7.
(3) Boston Bruins (-200) vs. Montreal Canadiens (+170): The most intriguing Eastern conference matchup due to the history of the franchises, their regular season series, the goalie matchup, and their contrasting styles of play. The Bruins are big and physical and will try to wear down the Canadiens over the course of the series. Boston is back as a division winner due to the play of goalie Tim Thomas, who is the favorite to win the Vezina trophy this season. The last time we saw the Bruins in the playoffs they lost to Philly after holding a 3-0 series lead, so the pressure will be on Boston for reasons other than being the higher seed. For all Zdeno Chara's skills he has never led a team to the conference finals, and he has been the favorite more times than not.
The Canadiens should have all the emotion after the fallout from the Chara hit on Pacioretty, even though they lost the rematch (7-0). Much has been made out of the lack of size of the Montreal forwards, but they have been successful in the playoffs with this group. The Canadiens also hold a major advantage in both special teams, as they are 7th in both the PP and PK while the Bruins are 16th and 20th respectively. As good as Thomas has been for the Bruins, Price has been every bit as good for Montreal and the best matchup of goalies in the first round will go a long way in determining the outcome of the series.
Montreal won the season series 4-2 and I like their playoff experience and the variety of skills from their defensemen over the bigger, but more mentally fragile Bruins. I think this series goes the distance with the Price/Subban combo winning game 7.
(4) Pittsburgh Penguins (-150) vs. Tampa Lightning (+130): Both the odds and seeds say this should be the most evenly matched series in the East. The Pens have molded themselves into a defensive team who leads the NHL in Penalty killing and relies on Marc Andre Fluery to win games. They will need timely scoring from all of their 3rd and 4th liners who are now playing top 6 minutes due to the injuries to Crosby and Malkin. The pressure will be on deadline pickups Neal and Kovalev along with Jordan Staal to keep up with a Tampa team that has more than a few offensive weapons.
It only took Tampa GM Steve Yzerman and coach Guy Boucher a season to return Tampa back to the playoffs, where a team with Stamkos, St. Louis, and Lecavalier should be every season. They have the edge in scoring depth in this series, but will be matched up against a Cup winning goalie and one of the deepest D-core in the league. The midseason pick up of Dwayne Roloson was a great under the radar move, as he proved in '06 that he was capable of carrying a team in the postseason.
This is the first postseason matchup between these two teams, a rarity in the East, but I like Fluery to be good enough in 4 of the 7 games for the Pens to advance.
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