We tracked the NHL's Western Conference Playoff picture the last couple of months by the numbers and it played out almost exactly like we thought it would, even if it took a crazy final day to come together. Dallas had the most difficult end of the season schedule, due to their amount of road games, and it took a final day road loss to Minnesota to knock them out allowing the defending Stanley Cup champion Blackhawks to back into the 8 seed. Anaheim and Nashville used favorable end of the season schedules to move up to the 4 and 5 seeds respectively while Phoenix and LA's tougher schedules moved them down to the 6th and 7th seeds. The biggest surprise since we began to track the standings was Detroit stumbling to the finish line and finishing 3rd in the conference behind the red hot Sharks. Today is the first day of the new season and everyone that is in the tournament has new life and hopes of Cup run. Below are the first round matchups of the best conference in hockey since the league emerged from the lockout.
(1) Vancouver Canucks (-205) vs. (8) Chicago Blackhawks (+175): The Canucks dominate the regular season and run away with the President's Cup and thanks to Minnesota beating Dallas on the final day of the season they have to open the playoffs with the defending champs who have beaten them in the playoffs the last two seasons. Tough break, but we will know right away if this Vancouver team is different from previous editions. The offense is well rounded with this season's emergence of Daniel Sedin and Ryan Kessler, while Max Lapierre could become extremely valuable as a 3rd line center with Manny Malholtra out indefinitely. The defense is deep and getting healthy and Luongo has had another stellar regular season between the pipes.
The Hawks have struggled to play consistent hockey all season, but still have the vital cogs from last year's Cup championship team. Toews, Kane, Hossa, Sharp, Keith, and Seabrook have proved they know how to win in the playoffs, something Vancouver's main guys have failed to prove. Chicago lost 10 players in the off-season and with them went their depth and grittiness. Most notably lost were 3rd and 4th liners like Ben Eager, Andrew Ladd, and John Madden. Corey Crawford has established himself as the team's #1 goalie, but it would be unwise to count on him to steal playoff games against the Canucks.
Chicago has the mental edge on Vancouver due to their recent history, so there is value in the +175 number, but Vancouver is too deep this season and I think they move on in 6.
(2) San Jose Sharks (-260) vs.(7) Los Angeles Kings (+220): This matchup of California teams features the biggest odds on the board, due to the Sharks recent play and the injury to LA's #1 center, Kopitar. San Jose cleared a mental hurdle last season by making it to the conference finals and looks to build on that in this year's playoffs. No team has the depth at center that the Sharks do with Thorton, Couture, and Pavelski. The Sharks also have a Stanley Cup champion goalie in Antti Niemi, thanks to Blackhawk cap problems.
The Kings haven't been the same team since Kopitar was injured; they lacked depth at center when he was healthy and now without him have struggled even more to score goals. To have a chance in this series they need to make it physical and win on special teams. Strength will meet strength when the Sharks #2 ranked power play matches up against the Kings 4th ranked PK. The Kings do have an advantage on the back end with offensive D-men in Doughty and Jack Johnson.
The Sharks are hot and the Kings are not, but if Quick can steal a game and the Kings can use the intensity of a rivalry to their advantage I like the number and the Kings to win Game 7 in San Jose.
(3) Detroit Red Wings (-200) vs.(6) Phoenix Coyotes (+170): A rematch of last year's first round series that went 7 games, but this year Detroit has the home ice advantage. Detroit looked to be back to their dominating ways until clinching the Central and playing under .500 hockey for the last 15 games. The Red Wings still have the kind of depth that is the envy of most teams and a puck possession system that makes opponents play primarily in their own end. Zetterburg looks poised to return for the playoff opener and matching up against a team that they beat in round 1 last year is favorable. Until Jimmy Howard wins a cup he will be a question mark and the Wings have been sloppy in their own end all season, Lidstrom has been solid offensively, but was a minus player during the regular season.
The Coyotes have been a resilent team this year with a roster full of guys who have scored clutch goals, even though they don't have a single 20 goal scorer. Keith Yandle is the best young offensive D-man in the game and Ilya Bryzgalov is as good as it gets when facing a ton of rubber. Phoenix has three lines that forecheck well and they could find some holes in Detroit's defense. Dave Tippett has this squad in the playoffs for a surprising second straight year, but the franchise is still looking for their first series win since the Winnipeg days.
Phoenix needs Bryzgalov to be the best player in this series and they need to win a couple of ugly games, but a matchup with Detroit for the second straight years screams trouble even at the price. You aren't going to get rich betting against the Wings in the first round of the playoffs and that is a lesson I have learned the hard way.
(4) Anaheim Ducks (-135) vs.(5) Nashville Predators (+115): My favorite first round series, a matchup of the most explosive offensive line in the game Anaheim (Perry, Getzlaf, Ryan) and the only 50 goal scorer in the NHL (Perry) vs. the best pair of D-men in the game in Nashville's Weber and Suter. Anaheim not only survived injuries to Getzlaf and goaltender Hiller, but they have thrived thanks to Norris candiate Lubomir Visnovsky on D and the revolving door of Emory and Dan Ellis in place of Hiller. Anaheim has come into the playoffs on quite a roll and if they can continue to get secondary scoring and quality play in net they could do major damage past round 1.
Nashville continues to impress every regular season with their ability to outwork opponents on a night to night basis and win from the net forward. The Preds would love to win every game 1-0, but to do so they will have to score that elusive one goal. I admit I love they way they play and could watch Rinne in net and Weber and Suter all day, but Mike Fisher will need to improve upon his one goal, four assist, and minus 5 regular season in Nashville or this series could get out of hand quickly. Nashville tied with Vancouver for fewest goals given up in the regular season and will need to stay out of the box for that to continue against the potent Duck power play.
The odds say this should be the closest played of all the series', so there isnt much value on the board, but the contrasting styles of play make it the most anticipated series for all hockey fans. I wish I could pick both teams, but I am going with Nashville's D to win their first ever series.
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