College Football Week 13

The final full regular season weekend of the college football season features the best slate of games of the year; Friday is an especially good day with the top three teams in the country all in action vs. teams capable of pulling an upset. Another theme of the weekend is traditional underdogs (A&M, OK St, FSU) in rivalry games all being favored and with great chances to exact years worth of revenge on their in state big brothers.

Texas A&M (-3) @ Texas: The first of the rivalry games kicks off Saturday night in Austin where the Longhorns are underdogs and need a win to get to .500. Texas' season has been stunningly disappointing and a loss on Saturday would leave them out of one of the 824 bowls this year. They would also eclipse the 02' Nebraska team as the team to take the most dramatic fall after losing the previous season in the BCS title game. These teams are going in opposite directions as A&M has one 5 in a row after Mike Sherman's QB switch to Ryan Tannehill, while Texas has lost 4 of 5. Texas inability to run the football, their leading rusher has 485 yards for the season, will allow A&M and pass rush specialist Von Miller to attack Garrett Gilbert. I have to give Mike Sherman credit for the QB switch that has rejuvenated his team and last week's win over Nebraska proved they can win a low scoring game. This has to be Mike Sherman's best chance to beat Mack Brown and few things would be sweeter for the A&M faithful than to drive the stake in the heart of Texas' season. I like A&M to continue their run of success and Texas to falter in the second half, so the play is to lay the favorite.

Auburn @ Alabama (-4.5): This the best college football game of the 2010-2011 season including all conference championships and the BCS title game yet to be played. This is one you don't want to miss while shopping for great deals or watching bad Big East football. Auburn has "found a way" this season behind Cam Newton and the offense's 307 rush yds/game and has dominated in the fourth quarter outscoring opponents 107-45. Auburn has looked like a team of destiny while coming back from 14 point fourth quarter deficits in wins over Clemson, South Carolina, and Georgia, where Cam Newton made every play and the defense was opportunistic. Auburn has taken advantage of an easy road schedule so far this season going 1-2 vs. the number on the road against Miss. St, Kentucky, and Miss. Saturday in Tuscaloosa will be their first real road test and Alabama has the offensive weapons to take advantage of a mediocre Auburn defense. If Alabama QB Greg McElroy continues to play at the level he has this season he and WR Julio Jones will have a big day Saturday. On defense Nick Saban will load the box to contain Newton on the ground and force him to make plays in the air. I think Newton will make plays in the passing game, but I don't think it will be enough to keep up with a team that has equal talent on offense. Alabama has the experience, home field, and coaching advantages and I don't trust the Auburn defense on the road, so Bama is the play.

Arizona @ Oregon (-18): Oregon escaped in the desert last year with a win in a two OT thriller, but this year's game is in Eugene and home field in the Pac-10 seems to mean more than in any other conference. Arizona's defense was embarrassed against Stanford and USC and I don't buy the theory that they are better suited to play laterally and with the speed of Oregon's offense. I think or at least hope Chip Kelly is smart enough to run LaMichael James downhill against this defense and expand the offense from there. Both teams are coming off bye weeks and that should help to get Arizona QB Nick Foles as healthy as possible and should allow Oregon to re-charge after tough road games at USC and Cal. 18 is a big number, but Oregon at home has shown they can routinely cover this number so I am taking the Ducks.

Boise St. (-14) @ Nevada: Boise has gone from Labor Day to Thanksgiving without playing a significant game and go to Reno with a chance to jump TCU and be the biggest beneficiary of an Auburn or Oregon loss. Boise's defense is underrated and will need to be stout vs. Nevada QB and Chicago Cub draft pick Colin Kaepernick, who is the first QB ever to rush for 1,000 and pass for 2,000 yards in the three consecutive seasons. Boise QB Kellen Moore will not allow his team to lose, but I think this game will be tight and exciting and this line is a little to Angel Cabrera like (fat and lazy) for me. Nevada has won all their home games by at least 14, so I will take the points and the Chicago Cub draft pick.

LSU @ Arkansas (-3): Best Saturday matchup and best offense vs. defense matchup of the weekend. Arkansas gritted out some tough road wins (South Carolina and Miss St.) and now gets to go home with an outside chance at a BCS invite. Ryan Mallett and his receiving corps vs. LSU CB Patrick Peterson and the LSU pass rush is as good as it gets at the college level. RB Knile Davis has given the Arkansas offense the added benefit of a home run threat on the ground and coach Petrino has turned the Razorbacks into a resilient team. LSU continues to play to their competition and in typical Les Miles form while winning, great performance vs. Alabama and then a head scratching close game vs. Mississippi. Mallett needs a signature game and I think this is it making Ark the play.

Oklahoma @ OK ST (-3): This game will resemble an Arena League game with the offensive players on these two teams. Some of the best skill players in the country will go head to head in a game where I wouldn't take the under if the total was 100. This will be the most exciting game to watch Saturday with QB's Landry Jones/Brandon Weeden, WR's Ryan Broyles/Justin Blackmon, and RB's DeMarco Murray/Kendall Hunter matching jaw dropping plays. Oklahoma looked like a much improved team last weekend on the road in their win over Baylor, but their overall body of work especially on the road continues to underwhelm. OK. State has a chance to end the stranglehold OK and Texas have had on the Big 12 South division and in the process give Mike Gundy his first win over OK. I like the improved OK. St defense to be the difference and send the Cowboys to the Big 12 title game in Cowboy stadium.

Florida @ Florida State (-2.5): What a difference a year and Tim Tebow makes, last year Florida routed the Seminoles and Bobby Bowden in the swamp and both teams haven't looked the same since. Urban Meyer is finding the difference between genius and goat is the graduation of a great player as his offense puts football back 50 years. FSU can do things UF can't; run the ball and stop the run and though they probably won't make the ACC title game wins over Miami and Florida might be more impressive.

Last week (3-3)

Season (48-39-1)