College Football Week 10

Two marquee matchups highlight the first weekend of the November college football season. The TCU/Utah game might be the best game left on the regular season schedule and the second game is an SEC West elimination game between two teams with as much talent as any team in the country. This time of year also brings some conference shake-down games as some of the power conference's second tier teams are also in action this weekend. The lines this late in the season also reflect all the information that is widely known about all teams, so we are going to do more Dr. Jack (in honor of ESPN NBA analyst Dr. Jack Ramsey) breakdowns this week to analyze the numbers. TCU (-4.5) @ Utah: What a game for the de facto last game of the Mountain West Conference as we know it with Utah going to the PAC-10 next year and the Big East trying to lure TCU and in turn save their football conference. In the 11 year history of the Mountain West conference this is the first matchup of top ten teams and the last matchup of unbeaten teams this regular season. TCU and Utah's style of play would fit in any conference as both teams are fast and physical on defense and are led by solid decision makers on offense. A Dr. Jack defensive breakdown shows us that TCU leads the nation in total defense giving up an average of 8.7 pts/game, while Utah is sixth giving up 14 pts/game. Utah is coming off their best win of the season last week on the road @ Air Force where their defense forced 5 turnovers. The one concerning factor about that game was QB Jordan Wynn and the offense's inability to do more with those turnovers as the Utah defense was forced to make a last drive stop to preserve the win. TCU has played the tougher schedule and has looked more impressive offensively in wins over Air Force, Baylor and Oregon State due to the play of QB Andy Dalton. TCU's last road loss was to Rice in 08' and I think that streak will continue this week due to the play of Andy Dalton and his almost perfect QB rating this season, so the play is TCU laying the 4.5. Alabama (-7) @ LSU: In a matchup of two 7-1 teams from the same conference both ranked in the top ten it is initially hard to believe that the home team would be a 7 point favorite until you consider the nationwide respect for Alabama and how LSU is thought of nationally. Bama is the defending champs with a senior QB, Heisman trophy running back, and one of the most respected football coaches in the world. On the other hand LSU has an inept offense run by two mediocre QB's, Les Miles who makes Andy Reid look like a clock management genius, and a team wide reputation for under achieving. A Dr. Jack breakdown of Alabama on the road this season shows us wins over Ark, Tenn and a loss to South Carolina with only a second half collapse by Tennessee keeping the Tide from a 0-3 record vs. the line in those games. LSU has played to the level of their competition this year which is head scratching vs. Tennessee and McNeese State, but that should help them this week and they are one of the few teams in the country that has a roster comparable to Bama's. A great matchup to watch in this game will be Alabama WR Julio Jones vs. LSU CB Patrick Peterson, both first round picks and their matchup will be a barometer of this game. The underdog in this game has covered 4 out of the last 5 games and 7 points seems like too many after seeing Bama on the road this year. I have a rule against taking Les Miles teams as a favorite, but 7 at home seems like an inflated line making LSU the play. Arizona @ Stanford (-10): Both teams are 7-1 trailing Oregon in the PAC-10 and this game will determine which team is still in the hunt for a BCS bowl. The Cardinal have been one of our favorite teams all year and have really come through with only a second half collapse @ Oregon keeping them from a perfect record vs. the number on the road this season. QB Andrew Luck looks like an NFL veteran and new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has done a tremendous job in his first year. A Dr. Jack breakdown of the numbers show us that Stanford is 0-2 vs. the line at home this year with closer than expected victories over USC and WSU. Arizona should get QB Nick Foles back this week and it will be interesting to see if Arizona can continue their early season trend of playing well on the road. I think Stanford is too good to lose this game, but the play is Arizona and the double digit points. Arkansas @ South Carolina (-4): The loss of leading receiver Greg Childs will really hurt an Arkansas team that relies on the passing game to sustain their offense. South Carolina has a tough defense and they will be able to focus all their attention on stopping TE D.J. Johnson and getting pressure on oft-injured QB Ryan Mallett. South Carolina RB Marcus Lattimore is healthy and should have his best game since the early season against a soft Arkansas defense. It is kind of funny that Spurrier's best team in Columbia features a dominant run game and defense, while his QB is a game manager. I think Spurrier will take this team into Gainesville next week with the SEC East on the line so South Carolina laying the 4 is the play this Saturday night. Oklahoma (-3) @ Texas A&M: Oklahoma is averaging 37.5 pts/game in Big 12 play and A&M gives up an average of 26 pts/game. I like both of those numbers to go up after this week as OK has too many offensive weapons for A&M QB Jerrod Johnson to match up against as he plays out of Josh Freeman like career. In a few years we are going to be saying "All Jerrod Johnson does is win NFL games". NC St. @ Clemson (-3.5): Two teams going in opposite directions, NC St. has had ten days to prepare for Clemson after their win vs. FSU, while Clemson is coming off a ugly loss to BC where leading rusher Andre Ellington was injured and will miss this game. Clemson coach Dabo Swinney seems to have lost his group while the Wolfpack seem to buying into coach Tom O'Brien's system. NC St. and QB Russell Wilson are the play as dogs. Louisville @ Syracuse (-6): Another great Big East hoops matchup masquerading as a poorly played high school football game. Our scouts onsite for Louisville's loss @ Pitt said L"Ville was unwatchable and unorganized, this is coming from Pitt and Dave Wannstedt supporters which is like Charlie Sheen calling someone else unstable. The play is Cuse laying the points and becoming bowl eligible, as the Michigan D is showing this year maybe Greg Robinson was the problem under the Dome. Last week (5-2) Season (39-29-1)