Thursday, September 16, 2010

Week 3

College Football Week 3



This week's slate of college games is like the Real Housewives of D.C.; yes it is still the Real Housewives, but a step down from Orange County and an even bigger step down from New Jersey. This would be a perfect Saturday of games for Ryder Cup weekend or the first weekend of MLB playoffs. While ESPN/ABC tries in vain to stir up interest in #1 Alabama vs. a Duke team that gave up 54 to Wake last weekend here are the Saturday plays.



Arkansas @ Georgia (-2.5): Georgia and QB Aaron Murray looked lost last weekend without A.J. Green and the defense got steamrolled by South Carolina's Freshman RB Marcus Lattimore. A return to Athens should help, but a week is not enough time to get ready for Heisman candidate Ryan Mallett and an explosive Arkansas offense. In this gunfight Arkansas has a machine gun while Georgia has a water pistol making ARK + 2.5 and +140 on the money line as the play.


Clemson @ Auburn (-6): Miami and FSU were both killers last week and the next time I take an ACC team to win a big non-conference game on the road Coach K will be on the sideline. Clemson is (2-0) after beating two JV teams, but (3-0) is too much to ask going into an SEC stadium to play a team that won a gutty road conference game last week. Clemson will have the best baseball player in the stadium in QB Kyle Parker, but Auburn finally has a QB who can run the spread in Cameron Newton, with their speed and physical play on D Auburn -6 is the play.


Florida (-16.5) @ Tennessee: Getting 16 points at home really shows how much this rivalry has turned one sided. Florida has looked shaky the first two games of the year as QB John Brantley has struggled to find his rhythm as all Gator fans try to get over the Tebow hangover. Florida might struggle to dominate the SEC East like in past years, but Tennessee is a great place to try to find their rhythm. Losing to Oregon by 35 last week at home shows how far UT has fallen and John Brantley will use this game as a confidence builder for the rest of the season making Florida -16.5 the play.


Maryland @ WVU (-9.5): This line has dropped four points since opening, but even at this reduced price Maryland looks to be a solid play. Maryland played surprisingly good defense in beating Navy and their option attack on Labor Day and that bodes well for them in this game vs. the WVU run game. WVU has looked very beatable in two wins this year vs. Coastal Carolina and in a late comeback OT victory @ Marshall. I think Maryland has the defense to contain Devine and force Geno Smith to make plays in the passing game to score points. I wouldn't be surprised if WVU squeaked out a win at home, but like every sharp in Vegas who took this game on Monday, Maryland +9 and the hook is the play.


Iowa (-2) @ Arizona: Most teams would be a little intimidated going into a night road game in Tucson and would need a quarter to get up to speed, but a veteran physical team like Iowa should be sharp from the opening kickoff. The three headed RB machine led by Sophomore Adam Robinson should allow Iowa to pound the ball straight at the Arizona D and QB Rick Stanzi has the experience to handle this situation. Arizona will try to match Iowa's physical play, but I can't forget about how they played vs. Nebraska in last year's Holiday Bowl. Nebraska pushed them around the field with a strong defense and on the line of scrimmage and I see Iowa using that same formula in this game making Iowa -2 the play.



UNLV @ Idaho (-7): Idaho has been strong at home vs. the number and the Vandals need a home game after the beating they endured @ Nebraska last week. In Nebraska, Idaho saw one of the best defenses in the country and turned the ball over more often than Allen Iverson playing the point. This week they should have a chance to establish a run game against a defense on the other end of the spectrum from Nebraska. Any win vs. a Mountain West school, even if it against one of the bottom feeders of that conference is important to Idaho, that along with the trend at home makes Idaho (-7) the play.


Nebraska (-5) @ Washington: Very intriguing game after the emergence of Nebraska dual threat QB Tyler Martinez. Martinez has showed the ability to make plays with his arm and legs and even a pts/game in the teens allows Nebraska to win with the way their defense. The one downside to Martinez's game is has tendency to force things and make mistakes. Washington will need Martinez to make some of those mistakes so they don't have to work the length of the field vs. the blackshirts. This has been a game circled on the Washington calendar since last year and a loss would leave them a disappointing 1-2 out of the conference in the early season. If Washington has improved and is going to contend for the Pac-10 title they have to show well in this game, which I think they will at home. I won't be on the money line, but points at home make Wash +5 the play.


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