1)
We’re three weeks into the NFL season and the Colts seem to have a dominant passing game, the Jets are controversial, and it’s nearly impossible to score an offensive touchdown on the Steelers. None of these are all that surprising. If I had said this would be the case before the first game, no one would have dubbed me the next Nostradamus. What is surprising is the play of the Chiefs. And the Bears. And Tony Romo (in a bad way). And especially Kyle Orton. Three weeks ago, no one in their right mind would have elevated Kyle Orton to the status at which he’s been playing. He was supposed to be the weak link on the Broncos, but he has averaged 359 yards per game. Yet, possibly the best part about Kyle Orton, is the public perception still has yet to change. People still think he’s a game manager at best. And this is where money can be made. You try to spot the trends early, hope they continue, and, most importantly, hope the general public doesn’t figure them out any time soon.
In the 2000’s, the AFC outplayed the NFC. Really, it wasn’t even close. The Patriots, Steelers, and Colts all had mini dynasties. (By dynasty, I don’t mean in the historical sense, like the 1970’s Steelers, 1980’s 49ers, or the 1990’s Cowboys, although the Patriots in the earlier part of the decade could fall into that category. In the parity that we see in the NFL, it is going to be difficult to see Super Bowl after Super Bowl after Super Bowl from any team. A present dynasty should be classified as a team that is dominant for an extended period of time. A period that far surpasses the probability that parity brings. The Colts, Pats, and Steelers were all well above average for the majority of the decade.) The NFC, by contrast, hasn’t seen anything close to a dynasty since Troy Aikman retired. Since the NFL realignment in 2002, every team in the NFC, except the Lions and Redskins, has won a division title and no team has won more than four. That’s parity. The AFC was the cast of the Ocean’s movies, with a handful of Hollywood Icons (Pitt, Clooney, Roberts, Garcia) surrounded by a bunch of above average supporting actors who could hold their own (Cheadle, Casey Affleck, Scott Caan) and a few people who are there for comic relief (Bernie Mac, Elliot Gould, and the tiny Asian guy). While the NFC of the 2000’s was like the cast of Crash. A nice ensemble of second level actors who mostly played off each other, but if asked to, could carry a scene. (Except for Terrence Howard, who carries almost every scene in which he’s involved. For the sake of the analogy, try to forget that Terrence Howard was in Crash. It’s tough, I know, but just try.)
However, the AFC’s superiority was supposed to be leveling off as the decade came to a close. The Giants pulled off arguably the biggest upset in football by beating the previously undefeated Patriot three years ago. If it weren’t for a last minute drive, the Cardinals would have done the same to the Steelers a year later. And last year, Drew Brees outplayed Peyton Manning to earn the Saints their first title. The three best teams of the decade, all from the AFC, pushed around (although the Steelers pushed back) in consecutive Super Bowls by the NFC. Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tony Romo and Adrian Peterson all lead teams that could make it a fourth year.
So, everything has evened out, right? Kind of. But not nearly as much as the public thinks it has. To measure the public’s perception, I use Vegas. The odds are set each week to try to get even money on each side of the line. So if Vegas sets the line for a game at -3 for the home team, that means they think that the mean of the public (meaning the middle of the public, not the angry people within it) thinks the home team will win by 3. Half of the money goes on the away team, half goes on the home team and, barring a push, Vegas takes the juice. If you look at the divisions by their record against the spread, things haven’t changed as much as the NFC wants you to think. There isn’t one division in the AFC below .500 in non-divisional games. (Divisional games don’t matter because the division as a whole will always come out .500 in those games. Unless if something crazy happens, of course.) As far as the NFC, if it weren’t for the North carrying a 4-1-1 non-divisional record, no division would be over .500. The defending champ boasting NFC South is an abysmal 1-5-2 against the spread. While the widely regarded worst division in years, NFC West has posted an even 4-4 mark. Now, in no way do I think the NFC West is even in the same class as the NFC South. In fact, the one win by the South was the Falcons undressing of the Cardinals in week 2. All I’m saying is the perceived gap between the two divisions isn’t nearly as large as originally thought.
To no one’s surprise, the oft over-hyped NFC East has only won a third of it’s games against the spread (3-6-1). The betting public (and, really, everyone this year) is always too high on America’s Team. Luckily for them, the Eagles have been able to surpass expectations to make the division respectable.
In the AFC, the North fueled by Pittsburgh’s surprise start and the continual under-valuation of the Bengals, is off to a 5-2-1 start. Even the Jaguars have only managed to pull the South down to one game over .500 (5-4-1) and the East (2-2) and West (5-5) are breaking even.
For strictly the inter conference matchups, the AFC is 9-7 against the NFC straight up (with no spread). Nine wins in sixteen games certainly isn’t dominant. One play here or there and the NFC wins one more of those games and we’re even. But if you factor in the spread, the AFC jumps to 10-5-1. That’s statistically relevant. Again, it’s not that the AFC is as dominant as they were in the past decade, it’s just that the conferences aren’t as even as people think they are. Not yet, at least.
2)
Within the world of fantasy football, Jamaal Charles owners hate Thomas Jones. Charles has looked like a potential top 5 running back over the past 11 games, dating back to last year. The reason I’ve thrown the word potential in there is because of Thomas Jones. The Chiefs signed Jones to a two-year contract after he was released by the Jets because they didn’t want to pay him a roster bonus. Now, despite the obvious flashes of greatness shown by Charles, the Chiefs have employed the two backs in a 60-40 timeshare that leans in Jones’ favor. And they’re 3-0. Which is the main reason that this timeshare won’t change, but it’s not the only reason. The other reason is that Thomas Jones is good. And when he gets a lot of carries, his teams win.
The first year Jones received 300 touches was 2005. Since then, he has played for three teams (Chicago, New York Jets, and Kansas City) which have boasted a combined 49-34 (.590) record during his tenure with the clubs. Over the same stretch, those three teams are a combined 71-95 (.427) in years Jones wasn’t on their team. He has gone to a Super Bowl and two Championship Games with Rex Grossman, Kellen Clemens, an injured Brett Favre, rookie Mark Sanchez, and now, Matt Cassel as his quarterbacks.
Charlie Weis, no matter how bad of a college coach he may have been, isn’t dumb. And, contrary to early reports, it seems that Todd Haley isn’t either. They know that Jones is the sturdy back that can depend on, so they won’t overuse burners, Charles and Dexter McCluster.
Basically, what I’m saying is that my Chiefs Super Bowl pick I made last week isn’t looking too bad as long as Thomas Jones is getting carries.
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