Thursday, September 9, 2010

College Football Week 2 picks

An exciting week 1 of the college football season ended late Monday night when VTech's Tyrod Taylor failed to match Boise St. and Kellen Moore's TD pass in the last two minutes giving Boise the win and cover. Week 2 has four highly anticipated non-conference games on the slate along with a couple of early season conference games that will go a long way in determining conference champs. Just like last week we will take a look at all the big games this week and a few under the radar plays, always against the spread.

Miami @ Ohio State (-8): The biggest game of the weekend and one of the biggest of the season; OSU is looking to validate their status as favorites to play for the title while Miami is looking for a statement win and revenge. The 03' Fiesta bowl, and the game costing terrible pass interference call in OT, does feel like a lifetime ago just ask Maurice Clarett (recently released from prison) and Larry Coker (coaching UTSA). This Miami team has used that game as a rallying point and was reminded of it often by some of the most respected former Cane players like Andre Johnson, Michael Irvin, and Vilma. Both teams are coming off scrimmage wins on Thursday where both Pryor (17/25, 247 yds, 3 TD) and Harris (12/15, 210 yds 3 TD) impressed. Randy Shannon has recruited and "coached up" the most athletic defense OSU will see all year and Leonard Hankerson has emerged as a big play receiver and member of the all name team. I think the Canes are ready to step into the national spotlight again, so Miami +8 is the play and there is decent value on the +280 money line.

Florida State @ Oklahoma (-7.5): This game has been lost in the shuffle behind Miami/OSU, but should be a very revealing game for both team harboring high hopes for this year. In Christian Ponder FSU has their best QB since former Knick great Charlie Ward was taking snaps and running the floor in Tallahassee. FSU will put up points, but has their re-built defense improved enough to win at Oklahoma? Last season FSU could not stop the run vs. good teams as they gave up over 7 yds/carry to G Tech, WVU, and Florida. Oklahoma will test that run defense often with future NFL first round RB DeMarco Murray who ran for 218 yards in a much closer than expected win over Utah State last week. I think FSU will do enough defensively to slow Murray and Ponder will have another big day making FSU +7.5 the play. Just like the Miami money line, this +260 money line has value and a Miami/FSU money line parlay could turn a small investment into a big payout.

Michigan @ Notre Dame (-3): UConn's defense trying to stop Michigan QB Denard Robinson looked as hopeless as Paula trying to win immunity on the Real World/Road Rules challenge and in turn my UConn play went up in flames like Paula's chance to win money on that show. This week Robinson leads Michigan on the road, where Rich Rod is 1-8 as Michigan head coach, to take on Brian Kelly an ND. ND's defense looked better vs. Purdue, but will be thoroughly tested against Robinson, who might be Rich Rod's Michigan Pat White. ND should also be seeking revenge for the game last year that they gave away with terrible time management. Those mistakes won't happen under Brian Kelly and ND -3 is the play at home.

Penn State @ Alabama (-11.5): Penn State was able to get Freshman QB Rob Bolden (20/29, 239 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT) comfortable at home last week in a 44-14 win vs. Youngstown, but Saturday at Bama and against a Nick Saban defense would be like Snooki going from the Gelato shop to the Supreme Court. PSU will need a big day from Royster who only gained 40 yards vs. Youngstown, and their defense will also need to improve this week after not forcing any tournovers in the opener. Bama will miss Mark Ingram and PSU will try to make Greg McElroy beat them, but he should be ready to take the next step this year with two future NFL WR's at his disposal. I think PSU will hold up in the first half, but Bama is too talented, too deep and the play at -11.5.

Georgia @ South Carolina (-3.5): If Florida continues to play like they did in week 1 this game could go a long way in determining who wins the SEC East. Both teams were impressive last week as South Carolina dominated Southern Miss while Stephen Garcia looked like a Steve Spurrier QB. This game features two of the best freshman in the nation, South Carolina RB Marcus Lattimore and Georgia QB Aaron Murray. Both lived up to the hype last week vs. weak competition and we should know more about both after this game. Georgia coach Mark Richt saved his job by bringing in defensive cordinator Todd Grantham and his 3-4 defense from the NFL. South Carolina is 1-7 in the last 8 games vs. Georgia, while 5 of the 8 have been within 6 points. Even without WR A.J. Green, who was suspended four games for selling his own jersey, while Georgia continues to make millions selling his replica jersey (Got to love NCAA hypocrisy). I like the trend and NCAA karma making Georgia +3 and a hook the play.

Stanford (-6) @ UCLA: As Rick Neuheisel continues his ongoing search for an offense at UCLA he will get an up close view of one of the best in Stanford and QB Andrew Luck. The good news for UCLA is that they were gashed on the ground last week at Kansas State and Toby Gerhart graduated last year. Stanford is balanced and UCLA does not have the firepower to stay within a score of Luck making Stanford -6 the play.

BYU @ Air Force (-1): The bottom of the Mountain West conference resembles the NFC West, so the winner of this game will have the inside track in the conference race. BYU QB's Riley Cooper and Jake Heaps both are capable of leading the offense and while the BYU defense gave up yards last week they were stout in the red zone in a win over Washington. This week the BYU defense will have to adjust to the Air Force option attack and a game on the road. With the talent edge and a competitive win under their belt, BYU +1 is the play.

Troy @ Oklahoma State (-14): Kendall Hunter (257 yds, 4 TD, 12 yds/carry last week) will continue his under the radar Heisman campaign against a second straight sub-par run defense, that makes OK St. -14 the play.

Syracuse @ Washington (-13.5): The Huskies were a play short last week as red zone issues kept them from winning at BYU. This week they are home vs. the Cuse and as we learned last week the Big East should stick to basketball and traveling two time zones away is trouble. Those two week 1 trends make Wash -13.5 the play.

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