Monday, March 28, 2011

Western Conference check-in


With a couple of weeks remaining before the end of the regular season, this is a good time to check in on the ever changing NHL Western Conference playoff picture. Below are the standings as of the games played Sunday March 27th.


1) Vancouver (109 pts, 6 games remaining, 3 Home, 3 Away): When we started tracking Western conference, the Canucks were the leaders and favorites to win the President's trophy, but they have played better than that pace recently. They have won 10 of their last 11 games overall, and 8 straight on the road to build a commanding 9 point lead on the rest of the NHL. Yesterday, they won their 50th game of the season, a club record, and have all the pieces for a Stanley Cup run this spring. The Canucks have entered the postseason with talented teams the past couple of years and have come up short in the playoffs, so this team will be under the spotlight and will have no excuses for an exit prior to the Finals.



2) Detroit ( 97 points, 7 games remaining, 4 Home, 3 Away): Detroit has played .500 hockey the last couple of weeks allowing San Jose to catch them in points, but the Red Wings have one game in hand and the much easier remaining schedule so they should hold onto the #2 spot. Tonight's home game vs. Chicago is the first of three meetings with their rivals and how those games play out will go a long way in determining their seed number and if Chicago cracks the top 8.




3) San Jose (97 points, 6 games remaining, 4 Home, 2 Away): The Sharks have gained 75% of the possible points in play during their last 15 games to gain some cushion in the Pacific division and tie Detroit for the #2 seed in the conference. One of the toughest schedules over the last quarter of the season doesn't get any easier over the last six games. Home and homes with Anaheim and Phoenix along with home dates vs. Dallas and LA leave the Sharks with a remaining opponent's winning percentage of (.545), tops in the Western conference. San Jose has played too well lately to lose the Pacific, but the brutal intra-division 6 games remaining will be too much to catch Detroit.



4) Phoenix (93 points, 5 games remaining, 3 Home, 2 Away): No team currently in playoff position has less games remaining than Phoenix. Their next two games are must wins, at home vs. Dallas and Colorado, because the Coyotes finish the season @ LA and then with a home and home vs. the division leading Sharks. The Coyotes are comfortable in low scoring close games and will need Ilya Bryzagalov to steal a few down the stretch or Phoenix will slide down to a 5 or 6 seed and begin the playoffs on the road without home ice advantage.




5) LA (92 points, 7 games remaining, 3 Home, 4 Away): The Kings look to be in good position with two games in hand over 4th seeded Phoenix, and they also host Phoenix in their last remaining head to head game. The numbers are favorable, but losing top center-man Anze Kopitar to a broken ankle will be a major hurdle that could end their season earlier than expected. Their next two games are in Northwest Canada vs. Edmonton and Vancouver and they finish with 5 intra-division games in the Pacific. The Kopitar injury could be a rallying point, but they will need more production from deadline pick up Dustin Penner among others to make up for the biggest late season injury in the West.



6) Nashville (92 points, 6 games remaining, 4 Home, 2 Away): No team in the West had a better home to road game split to end the season, and the Predators have taken advantage to move from 10th to 6th with 6 games remaining. Nashville's remaining two road games are @ Colorado and St. Louis, and of their remaining 6 only two (Vancouver and Detroit) are against teams with a winning record. Deadline pickup Mike Fisher looks to be more comfortable as he has been a factor in recent games and the numbers indicate the most underappreciated team in hockey could easily slide up to a 4 or 5 seed.




7) Anaheim (89 points, 7 games remaining, 4 Home, 3 Away): A home game tonight vs. Colorado is a must, since trips to Calgary and San Jose follow. 3 of their last 4 are at home vs. Pacific division rivals, which should be a chance to nail down one of the last playoff positions. Goalie Jonas Hiller has returned to stabilize the defensive zone, and Corey Perry has made a late run at the Hart trophy with a league leading 43 goals. Winning 2-1 Saturday night in Chicago was a huge victory in the standings and for their confidence leading into the stretch run of their season. With one of the best #1 line's in hockey and Hiller in net, this team should make the playoffs and be a threat to make noise once there.



8) Chicago (88 points, 8 games remaining, 3 Home, 5 Away): Inconsistency has left the defending Stanley Cup champs hovering in the bottom half of the playoff picture. 5 road games are also the most of the Western contenders, as Chicago is @ Detroit tonight followed by road games @ Boston and Columbus. This team seems too talented to miss the playoffs, but without good play on the road or success in their remaining 3 games vs. Detroit they could be in danger.




9) Calgary (87 points, 5 games remaining, 3 Home, 2 Away): With 8th seeded Chicago and 7th seeded Anaheim holding 3 and 2 games respectively in hand vs. the Flames, Calgary will need to win at least 4 of their last 5 and hope for some help to make the playoffs. Erasing a 3 goal third period deficit Saturday in Edmonton and winning in a shootout was a start. Their next game is a must win at home vs. Anaheim, a win and road games @ Colorado and St. Louis would allow the Flames to hold outside hopes of sneaking in the playoffs with some help. Most likely, poor early season play and a lack of games remaining will keep the Flames on the outside looking in at the playoffs.



10) Dallas (86 points, 8 games remaining, 2 Home, 6 Away): The Stars begin a 4 game Pacific division road trip this week with a stretch of games @Phx, SJ, LA, and Anaheim, making this road trip a make or break trip for their season. A favorable early season schedule allowed the Stars to stay in contention, but a brutal division and tough late season slate has the Stars on the outside and needing to play their best hockey this week to stay above water.



11) Minnesota, St. Louis, and Columbus (78 points, 7 games remaining): Minnesota choose a bad time to lose 7 straight, while Columbus was unable to take advantage of home games, and now both teams find themselves out of the playoff picture and have been joined at 78 points by a game Blues team. St. Louis has suffered key injuries this season and their recent play and young players have displayed a bright future, while Minnesota and Columbus are two teams in need of total overhauls.

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