Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Ranking the Sweet 16 games

After this first weekend of the tournament there are only a couple of things you can be sure about. First, if your choices to coach a big game are Rick Barnes and Jamie Dixon, you are in big trouble. Second, Kenny Smith and Charles Barkley talking the college game is about is comfortable as watching Jalen Rose and Jimmy King trying to defend their "Fab Five" fairy tale. Third, the Big East is consistently as overrated as the NFC East. If you had Marquette and UConn as the only two Big East teams in the sweet 16, retire and move to Vegas immediately. As we get closer to the 8 sweet sixteen games and narrow down the teams who are capable of winning a national championship, I thought it would be fun to rank the 8 games (from least to most) that I am most excited to watch.

#8) UNC (-4.5) vs. Marquette, Friday @ 7:15 in Newark: Having the ACC regular season champs and a Big East team as the least exciting game shows the depth of these 8 games, but both teams seem to have ceilings below the Final Four. Marquette has had a nice run, but is at a major disadvantage in this game with only one player taller than 6'7" on the roster. Buzz Williams will need his team to force at least as many turnovers as they did vs. Syracuse to have a chance against the more talented Tar Heels. UNC not only has the size advantage, but in Harrison Barnes, has the best player on the court. Hopefully Jimmy Butler and Big East pride will be enough to keep this game close.

#7) Kansas (-11) vs. Richmond, Friday @ 7:27 in San Antonio: Kansas is joined in the Southwest region by 3 double digit seeds, making their road the Final Four the easiest of the remaining #1 seeds. Richmond has been on a nice run since winning the A-10 tourney and PG Kevin Anderson has shown he is capable of making big shots, but beating Kansas in San Antonio is probably asking too much. Kansas has multiple defenders to check Anderson and both Morris brothers along with Thomas Robinson are NBA lottery picks with games the A-10 champs haven't seen all season. Richmond coach Chris Mooney will inspire his team with the memory of Northern Iowa's victory over Kansas last year, and at the very least will be interviewing with Tennessee and Georgia Tech next week.

#6) Florida State (-3.5) vs. VCU, Friday @ 9:57 in San Antonio: It is a good sign when I would consider myself very interested in the 6th most exciting game of sweet 16 slate. Interesting contrast of styles between these two double digit seeds who have impressed in their first two games. VCU has looked like a '70's NBA team, running and shooting their way to a tourney high 90 ppg, while FSU has been the best defensive team through two games. VCU's destruction of Purdue in Chicago was the best performance of Round 2, until FSU took the court later that night and buried ND. After the Kansas crew departs the Alamo dome, I expect the arena to be packed with knowledge basketball fans, a prerequisite for all basketball fans living in San Antonio.

#5) Wiscy (-5) vs. Butler, Thursday @ 9:57 in New Orleans: Two teams that could switch jerseys and it would take even ardent supporters a few minutes to notice. They both defend at a high level and run offensive sets that would make even the most grizzled of high school coaches proud, but they both have players on their roster that will play at the next level. Wiscy's Jordan Taylor and Jon Leuer along with Butler's Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack might not be cornerstones, but they have games that translate to NBA role players. Wiscy consistently grinds out wins in the Big Ten and they will meet their match against a Butler team that grinds out wins in tourney.

#4) Florida (-3) vs. BYU, Thursday @ 7:27 in New Orleans: Jimmer alone would crack the top 4 games, but in the wide open Southeast region, the winner of this game is in prime position to make the Final Four. Florida has athleticism and depth advantages, while the loss of Brandon Davies might be too much for BYU to overcome against a quality opponent, but you can't count out BYU as long as they have Jimmer. It will be interesting to see what Billy Donovan comes up with to defend him, and the Pistol Pete home state setting adds to the back story.

#3) UConn (-1) vs. San Diego State, Thursday @ 7:15 in Anaheim: Speaking of teams you can't count out due to one player, your 2010-2011 UConn Huskies. Walker has been every bit the player Jimmer has and has done it night in and night out against tougher competition. I was a surprised to see UConn as the favorite in a virtual road game against a SDSU team that has played BYU three times. UConn is on national TV more times in a week than SDSU was all season, so it will be interesting to see prospective lottery pick Kawhi Leonard against an athletic frontcourt. This is a resume game for SDSU; an impressive win would give them another home game for a trip to the Final Four. Meanwhile, a UConn win would be another notch in Walker's sword. The known vs. unknown factor makes this game more than a little intriguing.

#2) Duke (8.5) vs. Arizona, Thursday @ 9:45 in Anaheim: Kyrie Irving's return to the Duke lineup makes this game a must see due to the potential of seeing the top two picks in next year's draft matchup. Irving and Derrick Williams won't match up individually, but how they play will go far in determining the winner and elevate the quality of play. Arizona will have a Pac-10 home court advantage, but will need a lot from Williams and their post players as Duke has a clear cut advantage in guard play. Coach Sean Miller and Derrick Williams have turned around the Arizona program faster than anticipated and have to be happy about getting the defending champs in California and only a week after Irving's return to the lineup.

#1) Ohio State (-6) vs. Kentucky, Friday @ 9:45 in Newark: For my money the sweet sixteen matchup I am most excited to watch. Ohio State has done nothing over the first two games to lose their tag as the favorite, while Kentucky needed to play all 40 minutes in both of their games in Tampa. Kentucky has the speed and athleticism that Ohio State does not see very much in the Big 10, and even though this team might not be as talented as last year's team, they seem to know their roles. Kentucky PG Brandon Knight seems to improve every game and Terrence Jones could be the X factor. Both teams have been on major rolls to end their seasons and win their respective conference tourney's, so a close game with a high quality of play from teams with multiple lottery picks and coaches looking for their first titles doesn't seem to be asking too much.

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