I can't remember a year in college basketball that has been more wide open than this season, sort of the anti-Oscars, where it is difficult to make a convincing argument for any team winning two games in the tourney. With so many teams reliant on favorable matchups to advance next week there is an added sense of urgency for this week's conference tournaments, where the difference between a win and a loss could a bid or two to three seed lines. With that in mind below is an overview of the major conference tourney's and what teams need a good showing the most.
Big East
Overview: It is fitting that a conference poised to make up over 14% of tourney teams plays their conference tourney in the best venue in the country. The biggest surprises are Nova playing on Day 1 as the 10 seed, while Cincy and St. John's have buys, and ND being the 2 seed and a legit top 10 team with an outside shot at a #1 seed. Possible second round matchups of Conn/G'Town, SJ/Hall, Nova/Cincy, and Marquette/WVU rival any other conference tourney's semi's or finals and a possible SJ/Cuse quarter would be electric. Keep in mind all of these games will occur prior to Friday night's semifinal matchups.
Team(s) who need a strong showing: Marquette would be the only team at risk if the bubble is the size of the recent housing bubble, so they can't afford an opening day loss to Providence. After Providence, Marquette has the best draw it could have hoped for with matchups vs. WVU and Louisville. I also think the winner of a possible St. Johns/Cuse quarter would make a major move up the seed line and at least lock up a #3. ND has never had success in the Garden, but a win this year would give the Big East a convincing argument for two #1 seeds next week.
Big 10
Overview: The question of depth or mediocrity will be answered over the next couple of weeks for this conference. As of now, I tend to side towards depth, even with Mich St. and Minny being seeded 7th and 9th respectively behind 6th seeded Penn State. John Beilen should get a ton of credit for coaching this Michigan team to a fourth place finish behind heavyweights OSU, Purdue and Wiscy (at least one WVU coached worked Michigan fans). A possible Purdue/Wiscy semi would be a "can't miss" with a #3 seed in the Big Dance on the line.
Team(s) who need a strong showing: As hard is this is to type after a pre-season #2 ranking, Michigan State needs an opening win over Iowa and a win over Purdue to secure a dance invitation. Tubby Smith and Minny also need an opening win over NW and a season saving upset of OSU to crack the at large field. Both Michigan and Illinois are currently in the field, but that quarter could be labeled a seeding game as both teams could be anywhere from a #11 to a #7.
Big 12
Overview: The lack of depth in this conference is on display with four must miss opening games (Neb/OK St, Col/ISU, Baylor/OK, and Mizz/TTech), but if the seeds hold a Kansas/KSU and Texas/Tex A&M semi slate would rival the Big East semi's in terms of quality of play. A Kansas/Texas final could be a playoff for a #1 seed and every team from A&M to Mizz could move up or down the seed considerably pending their play this week.
Team(s) who need a strong showing: Nebraska and Colorado have some of the worst out of conference schedules in America so opening game victories are a starting point. Nebraska would face Kansas in the quarters and a win coupled with their regular season victory over Texas would make them hard to leave out. Colorado opens with Iowa State and a win would put them in the quarters vs. the roller coaster that is KSU. Both teams need two wins and if they both get them they would play each other in the semis. Texas also needs a strong run to stop the seed sliding, at least to the finals after playing .500 play for the last couple of weeks.
Mountain West
Overview: Not only is the tourney played in Vegas, but this conference is one of the best this year with two teams in the mix at the 1/2 seed lines and three capable sleepers. The main storylines will revolve around Jimmer, how BYU plays without Davies, and a possible round 3 of BYU/SDSU. SDSU is at a major disadvantage being the #2 seed with a possible semi vs. UNLV on the Rebels home court.
Team(s) who need a strong showing: Colorado State and New Mexico match up evenly in a quarter with the winner getting BYU (most likely) in the semi's. New Mexico has beaten BYU twice this season and is capable of winning this tourney and stealing a Big Dance ticket. UNLV should make the tourney regardless, but a good showing on their home court could move them up a couple seed lines.
PAC 10
Overview: Sean Miller led Arizona to the regular season Pac 10 title in year 2 behind dominant big man Derrick Williams, but the Wildcats are at a disadvantage playing this tourney in LA. USC/Cal and Wash/WSU are interesting rivalry quarterfinal games and are must wins for USC and Washington's tourney hopes. UCLA catches a nice break as the 2 seed and will enjoy the LA venue in their quarter vs. the winner of Ore/ASU and their semi vs. the winner of WSU/Wash with the chance to move up a couple of seed lines with a good showing.
Team(s) who need a strong showing: Washington has too much talent to miss the tournament, but without a quarterfinal win vs. WSU they could be left out. USC has two quality out of conference wins (Texas, Tennessee), wins over Cal and Arizona would put them in the final and off the bubble.
SEC
Overview: The exact opposite of the football season where the western half of the conference was dominant and the east a doormat. Florida is the east's #1 seed, but has the much more difficult road to the final than east #2 seed Kentucky. Florida most likely will have to beat both Tennessee and Vandy to make the finals, while Kentucky has the winner of Miss/S. Car in the quarters and the Bama/UGA winner in the semi's.
Team(s) who need a strong showing: Any team from the western division, since no team is currently in the field next week. The closest thing to a play in game could be the UGA/Bama quarter, but both teams would need to follow up that win with a decent showing in the semi's vs. Kentucky. Tennessee or Vandy could both use a win over Florida this week on a neutral site to push up their seed line.
ACC
Overview: This conference used to be known for its depth of talent, but this year it is as top heavy as a Hugh Hefner weeding. UNC came out of nowhere behind freshman Marshall and Barnes to win the regular season as Duke leaked oil to the finish. FSU is a mildly intriguing team and the only other lock in this conference to get a bid. Anything short of a UNC/Duke final will be a surprise and a ratings calamity for ESPN.
Team(s) who need a strong showing: VTech needs a win in their opening game vs. GTech and a very solid showing at the least vs. FSU to finally get Seth Greenburg off the bubble. BC would need to collapse to not beat Wake in their opening game and a win would set up an elimination game vs. Clemson. Duke needs a strong showing to stabilize their seed and the ability to get something more than jump shots on offense would be a start along with some defensive intensity.
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