Tuesday, June 15, 2010

US Open Preview by the numbers

Woods (9/2) Mickelson (5/1)
Tiger is the slight favorite in NBC's dream final pairing for Father's Day Sunday. There are two ways to look at Tiger's odds; Tiger supporters will tell you he is a great value anytime he is over 4/1 (true) while non-supporters will tell you that as long as he is in the field he will get action (never gets old) and has to be made the favorite (also true). His on course game has been inconsistent at best and he is coming off injury concerns and swing issues. Mickelson has been much better on the course and is even using the Tiger-like line of using regular PGA tournaments to peak for the majors. Tiger lost his intimidation factor on the field last November and has been unable to put four good rounds of golf together since. That task will be more difficult at this event, and it is easier to see Mickelson stringing together four rounds needed to win.



Westwood (11/1) McIlroy (14/1) Harrington (14/1) Els (18/1)

Els doesn't have a top ten in the US Open in 6 years, but he is having a bounce back year and it would not be a surprise to see him contend. Harrington has missed three of the last five cuts in this event and is surely not a lock. McIlroy is coming off a T-10 last year and has the game to win, but will have to avoid the one bad round he is known for. Westwood has earned his world ranking with three thirds and one second in the last eight majors, but even supporters at this price are going to be worried if he needs clutch shots on Sunday to break through in a major.

(30/1) Donald, Furyk, Stricker, Dustin Johnson, Mahan, Poulter, Goosen, Casey, Villegas

Plenty of options at this advantageous price, former champs Goosen and Furyk are US Open stalwarts with minor questions this year as Goosen is recovering from injury and Furyk has never played well at Pebble. Donald and Poulter are in their prime, but have their worst career major results at the US Open and more suprisingly Stricker and Casey have only one top ten each at an event they should be annual contenders in. Mahan has three T-20's in his last three US Opens and Villegas has been consistently between 9th and 50th in this last four US Opens. Both can be expected to contend this year. Dustin Johnson's back to back wins at Pebble and his all around game should lead to an eventual major and this price reflects that even if he hasn't had major success up to this point.

(35/1) Clark, Scott, Watney, Ogilivy (45/1) Schwartzel, Kaymer, Allenby, O'Hair, Choi, Zack Johnson

The US Open has proved difficult for Allenby who has one T-10 in eleven starts, Choi who has been cut three of the last four, and Johnson who has been cut four of the last five. Clark and Scott have surprising wins this year and Schwartzel and Kaymer are interesting players who have the games to contend with short major resumes. Watney and O'Hair need a Lucas Glover like tourney to validate their prices. Ogilivy is very interestingly priced in this group as a proven world class player who is currently enduring a rocky stretch, but could turn out to be the value of the tournament.

(50/1) Cabrera, Van Pelt (60/1) Garcia, Glover, McDowell, Stenson, Yang (66/1) Cink, Karlsson

The 07' US Open and 09' Masters champion is the same price as a guy who has one career win on tour in Milwaukee, but based on their play this year Van Pelt looks to be the better bet. Tons of potential and unfilled expectations with the majorless Garcia and Stenson coupled with surprise 09' major winners Glover and Yang and the underrated McDowell who had the best cumulative major finish in 09'. Cink and Karlsson both combine excellent ball striking with shaky putting at this number, both will be common picks for people looking for dark horses.

(70/1) Kuchar (75/1) Weir, Singh (80/1) Moore, Slocum

A mix of veteran major winners who might have one more major week left in them and three solid players with six wins between them, the biggest being a Fed Ex playoff event. While Kuchar, Moore, and Slocum have had little US Open or major success in general, Singh and Weir have four combined majors and numerous T-5's. Weir has finished T-10 in six of the last seven US Opens and Singh has finished T-20 in six of the last ten and has had success at Pebble. Both are made much more interesting at this price.

(90/1) Toms, Campbell, Curtis, Perry, Fisher, Jimenez, Davies, F. Molinari

Sets up for a decent mini Ryder Cup with these eight at this price. The four Americans have the experience of major contention and a couple wins, but all are better bets at one of the other majors. Molinari and Davies would like some of that experience to go with their games. Fisher is interesting at this number he had T-30's in all of the 09' majors with a fifth last year in this event. He seems undervalued at this number and could be a better bet than some of this countrymen at a third of the price.

(110/1) Leonard, Duval, Couples, Quiros, Ishikawa

More options here with some of the biggest odds on the board. The US Open is the only major that Leonard has not registered a top ten and unlike the Masters Couples has only three T-10's in 31 starts in this event. Duval played incredibly well last year and came from longer odds than this year to tie for second. Like Naughty by Nature, Quiros and Ishikawa may be worthy of a flyer to make it big while seemingly being too young. Quiros can hit it a mile and has showed well in Europe and the few World Golf Championships he has played and Ishikawa shot 59 this year on the Japanese tour and fared well in the WGC match play in February.




1 comment:

  1. I love the Naughty by Nature in a golf reference, that is classic.

    ReplyDelete