Western Conference check in

After a full NHL schedule Tuesday night, I thought it would be a good chance to check back in with the numbers to see what has changed from last week's projections of the Western conference playoff picture. Digging a little deeper from last week, I have expanded the projections to include games remaining against the weaker Eastern conference. My theory being if a team has games, especially home games vs. the bottom half of the Eastern conference a win should be expected and a loss crippling. Since teams 3 through 13 in the standings are so close together finding anything to differentiate them is vital to making an educated guess about the final results.

Vancouver and Detroit continue to hold commanding leads in their divisions and are 10 and 5 points clear of the third place, so I will refrain from repeating their praises from last week and move into the third place Phoenix Coyotes.

3) Phoenix (75 points, 21 games remaining, 11 Home, 10 away): A 3-0 week keeps the Coyotes on top of the Pacific division and last night's OT win in Philly shows this team's ability to beat good teams on the road. Tough scheduling has Phoenix visiting Tampa tonight in their last game vs. an Eastern conference opponent, and they follow that game with 4 straight against Western playoff contenders, 3 being on the road. If they can continue their good play through this stretch they finish the season with 7 of 9 at home. A remaining opponent's winning percentage of .525 is 4^th toughest of the 11 teams in contention.

4) San Jose (74 points, 21 games remaining, 13 Home, 8 Away): The Sharks also completed a 3-0 week with an impressive victory on the road in Detroit and moved from 7^th to 4^th. Two more road games, tonight @ Pittsburgh and @ Calgary are followed by 6 straight home games. Their remaining opponent's winning percentage of .530 is second toughest of the teams in contention and after Pittsburgh tonight their only remaining games vs. the East is a home game vs. the Rangers. The home game advantage over the Coyotes indicates that San Jose has a great chance to win the Pacific and it could easily come down to a home and home with Phoenix on the last two days of the regular season.

5) Minnesota (70 points, 22 games remaining, 10 Home, 12 Away): A busy 4 game week allowed Minnesota to make up ground. Last week we talked about their league low .498 remaining opponent's winning percentage and that includes 6 games vs. the East and only two of those being on the road against teams with winning records. Winning games they should will determine if the Wild make the playoffs and how high they can climb.

6) Nashville (70 points, 22 games remaining, 14 Home, 8 Away): No team in contention in the West has more home games and less road games than the Predator's and a remaining opponents winning percentage of .505 is more than manageable. Nashville's remaining schedule can be broken down in two parts; 5 of their next 7 are on the road vs. the West, while only 3 of their last 15 games are on the road and all 3 are against teams with losing records. The numbers love Nashville's chances of making a run at the 4 seed even coming off a 1-2 week.

7) Calgary (70 points, 20 games remaining, 10 Home, 10 Away): Every team behind Calgary has at least two games in hand and some have three, so the Flames must really take advantage of an opponent's winning percentage of .499 (2^nd lowest of the 11 teams). They also don't have any remaining games vs. the East, so every game is an opportunity for a major swing in the Western standings.

8) LA (68 points, 23 games remaining, 14 Home, 9 Away): The Kings have the more games remaining than every team that currently sits in playoff position and after a road game tonight @ Anaheim the Kings play 6 straight at home. No games remain vs. the East after their recent successful road trip, but the numbers are favorable for a Kings push to avoid Vancouver or Detroit in round 1.

9) Anaheim (68 points, 22 games remaining, 14 Home, 8 Away): Ducks' goalie Jonas Hiller was the one player we mentioned when reviewing the numbers last week and his three game absence during which Anaheim went 0-3 and gave up 21 goals moved them from 4^th to 9^th and currently out of the playoffs. A seven game home stretch beginning tonight with LA and a remaining opponent's winning percentage of .521 are favorable, but if team MVP Hiller is not back soon it will not be enough this year in this conference.

10) Dallas (68 points, 22 games remaining, 10 Home, 12 Away): A home loss last night to the Devils capped off a 0-3 week and dropped Dallas from 5^th to 10^th. The numbers predicted this fall and a league high .533 opponent's winning percentage and 5 of their next 6 on the road vs. teams above them in the Western standings indicate that the Star's will continue to slide.

11) Chicago (68 points, 22 games remaining, 9 Home, 13 Away): No Western conference contender has less than Chicago's 9 remaining home games, but on the bright side 8 of their remaining games are vs. the East and how they play on the road in 6 of those games will determine their fate. Their remaining opponent's have a winning percentage of .526 (3^rd toughest).

12) Columbus (66 points, 23 games remaining, 11 Home, 12 Away): Gaining 5 of a possible 6 points this week, including home wins over Nashville and Chicago, has kept Columbus on this list and a remaining opponent's winning percentage of .504 (3^rd easiest) and a game in hand over everyone but LA gives them a fighting chance.

13) St. Louis (63 points, 23 games remaining, 9 Home, 14 Away): 14 remaining away games might be a positive after back to back home losses to Chicago and Colorado that have all but eliminated the Blues from contention. An upcoming 3 game Western trip to Vancouver, Edmonton, and Calgary will determine if the Blues are on this list next week.