We are currently in the midst of a year in the NHL where the disparity between the Eastern and Western conferences has never been more apparent. Yes, the Eastern conference has a few teams that can contend for the Cup, most notably Philadelphia and maybe Boston, but as an overall conference it is the "Fredo" of the NHL. The Western conference playoff picture changes from day to day and game to game with teams closer than A-Rod and Cameron Diaz sharing a box of popcorn. Currently the 12th and 13th teams (Columbus and St. Louis) in the Western conference would be comfortably in the playoffs if they played in the East. In an effort to sort out the muddled Western conference playoff picture I went back to basics and studied the numbers. After complying each teams' points, games left to play, home and road split, I also put together each team's opponent's winning percentage for the remainder of their schedule as a way to judge "strength of schedule". Since these numbers are always changing I felt this would be a great way to get a day to day snapshot of the playoff picture. For our first installment below are what the numbers say after NHL games played 2/15/10.
1) Vancouver (83 points) (24 games remaining, 12 home, 12 away): The Northwest division leaders are also in the driver's seat for the President's Cup given to the team with the most points during the regular season. There is no need to dig deep into the numbers on a team that will coast into the playoffs as the conference's #1 seed. The big questions for the Canucks will be if they can add defensive depth at the deadline due to recent injuries and if Ryan Kesler can continue his breakthrough performance and give the Canucks the first back to back teammates to win the Hart Trophy (MVP) since Phil Esposito and Bobby Orr in 68/69 and 69/70.
2) Detroit (74 points) (26 games remaining, 12 home, 14 away): The Central division leaders are back after a year hiatus to where every hockey fan expects to find them in the standings, at or near the top. They have been the most consistent franchise in the NHL both pre and post lockout where everyone knows their role, plays a team game, and sacrifices stats for wins. Like Vancouver there is no need to dig into their remaining schedule, goaltending as always will be the main question between Detroit and the Cup finals.
3) Phoenix (69 points) (24 games remaining, 12 home, 12 away): At this very moment the Pacific division leaders in a division where all five teams are within 4 points of each other (Phx, Ana, Dallas, SJ, LA). The numbers tell us that they probably will not stay in this spot for long. 24 games remaining is the second fewest of all 13 playoff contenders and their opponent's winning % for those remaining games are the third highest at .525%. Their remaining intra-division schedule is mixed with 3 of 4 games at home vs. Dallas and SJ, while all 3 games left vs. LA and Anaheim are on the road. The numbers tell us that a 5 or 6 seed is more likely than a 3 for the desert dogs.
4) Anaheim (68 points) (25 games remaining, 15 home, 10 away): Only one team in the West has more than the Duck's 15 remaining home games, so if they and surprise Vezina candidate Jonas Hilller can take care of business at the "Pond" a division title and 3 seed are within reach. 3 of 4 left vs. Phoenix and Dallas are at home with 1 of 2 and 2 of 4 at home vs. SJ and LA respectively.
5) Dallas (68 points) (25 games remaining, 11 home, 14 away): The Stars are surprise contenders up to this point in the season, but the numbers the rest of the way don't look promising. 14 road games is the second most remaining in the west, and their opponents winning percentage the rest of the season is 2nd highest at .530%. Their intra-division schedule is even worse with their remaining 2 games against Phoenix on the road, and 2 of 3 on the road vs. Anaheim, SJ, and LA. Holding on to a playoff spot would be quite an accomplishment for this team and the numbers tell us that is unlikely, while exploring Brad Richard's trade value might be a good idea.
6) Nashville (68 points) (25 games remaining, 16 home, 9 away): The numbers indicate that the Pred's have the best chance at the 4 seed a home ice in the first round. 16 homes games remaining is the most in the West and their remaining opponent's winning % is only .512. Presently only 3 of their remaining 9 road games are against a team with a winning record.
7) San Jose (68 points) (24 games remaining, 15 home, 9 away): The 15 home games remaining are a major positive, but the Sharks have the highest remaining opponent's winning % at .531. It will be interesting to see which number turns out to be more significant. This rosters talent and history at the Shark tank indicates a 5 or 6 seed is likely.
8) Calgary (66 points) (23 games remaining, 13 home, 10 away): The Flames have played the most games in the West to accumulate their 66 points, so they will be forced to watch the scoreboard as teams behind them make up their games at hand. It seems unlikely that they will hang onto a spot, but recent results and a remaining opponent's winning % of .503 (2nd lowest) will make it interesting and very hard to trade Iginla before the 2/28 deadline.
9) LA (65 points) (26 games remaining, 14 home, 12 away): The Kings recent play on their Grammy's/NBA All-Star game road trip has proven that a talented and hot team can thwart the traditional numbers. 11 of their last 26 games are intra-division games, and 7 of those 11 are at home, so the Kings control their playoff destiny and a .519% opponent's winning percentage is in the middle of the western pack.
10) Minnesota (65 points) (26 games remaining, 13 home, 13 away): The winning percentage of the Wild's remaining opponents is a playoff contender low at .498, so it would not be a surprise to see this workman-like team grab one of last playoff spots. The numbers indicate a Dallas/Calgary/LA/Minny race for the final two spots is likely.
11) Chicago (62 points) (26 games remaining, 12 home, 14 away): Hard to believe that the defending champs are on the outside of the playoff pairings; with no games in hand and more remaining road games than home the numbers are not favorable. Chicago needs to do damage on the road and against good teams (.524 remaining opponent's winning %) to threaten, but they clearly have the talent to go on a run.
12) Columbus (61 points) (26 games remaining, 13 home, 13 away): After a more than forgettable year last season, Columbus is back fighting for a playoff spot. With more than a couple teams between them and the playoffs, the #8 seed is a long-shot, but there are still better than 8 teams in the East.
13) St. Louis (59 points) (27 games remaining, 12 home, 15 away): The Blues have a game in hand vs. everyone in the West and an opponent's winning % of .504 (2nd lowest in West), but 15 games on the road are too much to jump 5 teams. Injuries have ruined a promising season, but the future is bright for this organization.
Speaking of bright futures, Colorado has taken a step back this season after making the playoffs last season, but with their young talent at the NHL, AHL, and junior level they will be back in the playoff picture next season. Edmonton is also rebuilding this season with young players and next year might be asking too much, but the future is also very bright in Edmonton, which is a lot more than you can say for at least a third of the East.
Like I said previously the numbers above are very interesting and change day to day, so I will keep updating the Western conference playoff picture ongoing for the rest of the season to see if things shake out like the numbers suggest.
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