Monday, January 31, 2011

The Federal Reserves

There is no question that this has been the best NBA regular season in recent memory, it seems like every night there is an intriguing game or compelling league story to follow. It is only fitting that this year's All Star game is the most anticipated All-Star game since HIV positive Magic came back to play and with Blake Griffin in the dunk contest, it could rival the 2000' contest that featured Vince Carter, Tracy McGrady, and Steve Francis. On a side note, NBA TV showed a marathon of dunk contests in 30 minute intervals on Friday and it was the best TV since season 8 of Seinfeld. Watching Carter, McGrady, and Francis at their athletic and career pinnacles was as jaw dropping as I remembered it live and even subsequent years that featured Baron Davis, Gerald Wallace, Desmond Mason, and Jason Richardson made it impossible to turn the channel.

NBA fans also responded to the compelling year by selecting 9 deserving starting All-Stars, with only the China delegation flooding the internet with Yao Ming votes keeping it from 10 for 10. David Stern gets to name Ming's replacement and he should follow the rules given to coaches who pick the reserves. The rules are to ignore the positions on the ballot if and when players play multiple positions. Not only does this rule make perfect sense, but it gives Stern the opportunity to name Tim Duncan starting center for the West. For a commisoner who looks for every chance to reward good citizens and organizations this is the perfect chance to name one of the top 10 all time players as a starter to round out the best All-Star rosters in 15 years.

Below are my All-Star reserves for each conference (7 players, at least 2 Guards, 2 Forwards, 1 Center) based on the traditional numbers, the eye test, and some new cyber-metric stats like plus/minus, usage rate, and win shares, with extra focus on my personal favorite plus/minus. Of all the numbers you can find none are more tied to wins and losses than how many points your team is plus or minus while you are on the floor.

East

Rajon Rondo (Bos): Leads the league with 12.5 apg while averaging over 4 rpg, 2 spg while shooting 51% from the field. On the best team in the East he is second at (+12).

Ray Allen (Bos): In a depleted conference the best teams 4th most important player is still comfortably an All-Star due to shooting a career best 45% from 3 and 50% overall. His late game "clutch" stats are also at a career high.

Paul Pierce (Bos): Probably having the best year of his career (18.9 ppg, 5 rpg, 3.2 apg) while shooting 50% from the field and 41% from the 3. He is the guy who is going to take all the big shots for the best in the conference, as myself and all the Knick fans can attest to. If anyone deserves the success of the Celts it should be the guy who was a couple of plays away from the finals with Antoine Walker as the next best player on his team.

Kevin Garnett (Bos): His traditional numbers are just OK (15 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 2.2 apg), but he has a conference best plus/minus of (14.3) which seems to summarize how valuable we knew he was when watching him play. Has there been an actual tough guy who has been involved in more un-tough 12th man antics like throwing "cancer" around in trash talk and going after Channing Frye below the belt?

Al Horford (Atl): With his college teammate Noah hurt the Eastern conference back-up center is a one horse race, but that shouldn't take away from Horford's year (16.2 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 3.5 apg, 1.1 bpg) all on 57% shooting. He has also drastically improved at protecting the basket for a Hawks defense that is much improved due to his play.

Chris Bosh (Mia): I loved Durant calling him the "Fake Tough Guy", but his numbers (18.6 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 1.9 apg) are All-Star worthly in the East and his best number is his plus/minus of (10.8) which was validated by how much the Heat missed him the week his was out with a sprained ankle.

Joe Johnson (Atl): He gets the final spot due to his play lately (29 ppg in January) and his ability to attack with success against some of the best in the league. He is a team best (+6) and his usage rate verifies that he is one of the best in the East even if his cartoonish contract tends to overshadow his play. Even during a season where he started slow and was injured his number are about right a couple of weeks before the break (20.1 ppg, 5.4 apg, 4.3 rpg). His success going head to head with Lebron also swayed my opinon.

Just missed

Ray Felton (NYK): Easily the hardest to leave off the team, his play has been a barometer of the Knicks' play and over the last month he has slipped. His numbers at first glance (17.3 ppg, 8.9 apg, 3.7 rpg, 1.85 spg) are impressive, but when factored for efficiency against the Knicks pace of play and overall shooting percentages (42% from the field and 33% from 3) they a more of a mirage. Most importantly for me, is his (-.2) plus/minus which would be 5.2 less than the lowest plus/minus of my reserves.

Not as close as you would think

Andrew Bogut (Mil): His 11.7 rpg lead the reserve candiates in the East, but his shooting percentages ( 48% from the field and 41% from the line) and plus/minus of (-.8) are as ugly as a winter day in Wisconsin.

Josh Smith (Atl): He hits 5 categories for fantasy owners (16.1 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 3.4 apg, 1.8 bpg, 1.31 spg) and has more athleticism than any of my current reserves, but his inability to shoot 50% from the field and the lowest plus/minus of any Atlanta starter further cements his status as an enigma.

The West

Manu Ginobili (SA): Leads all reserve candiates with a plus/minus of (12.5) , he has the ball in all key moments at crunch time along with the toughest defensive assignments. His numbers are as steady as ever (18.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 4.9 apg, 1.77 spg) and for the first time in his career he is the best player on the best team in the league.

Dirk Nowitzki (Dal): Was the leading candiate for MVP (23 ppg, 7 rpg, 2.5 apg) prior to a knee injury. During the time he missed the Mavs resembled the Cavs more than a team that could contend for a title. Plus/minus of (12) verifes what we saw in his absence.

Pau Gasol (LAL): Back up center on this squad who hasn't missed a game all season while averaging (18.6 ppg, 10.5 rpg, 3.9 apg, 1.9 bpg). He continues to shoot a high percentage and has a plus/minus of (10.2). Plays just enough center in game situations like Duncan to qualify as a back up and escape the depth at power forward.

Blake Griffin (LAC): Rookie or not, he is one of the top players in the deepest position in the NBA. Griffin is averaging well over a double/double (22.6 ppg, 12.8 rpg, 3.5 apg) and has done the impossible, he made the Clipps a must see team and got Baron Davis interested in basketball again. Griffin skill set in an All-Star game with the western roster could be as explosive as a bar tour with Chuck Sheen.

Kevin Love (Min): Win/Loss record is not suppossed to factor into All-Star criteria, but it always does and should when coaches are choosing the roster unless a player is on pace for a historic season. Love is on pace for the first 20/15 season since Moses Malone (21.6 ppg, 15.6 rpg, 2.5 apg) and is also shooting 44% from 3. If he can keep up this pace it will be a season like no other, but even if he doesn't Love is much deserving of an All-Star nod.

Derron Williams (Utah): For my money the most complete PG in the league, he is holding the Jazz together and scores or distributes based on the team and the night. (21.9 ppg, 9.4 apg, 3.7 rpg, 1.20 spg) for a Western conference team that doesn't have a pick and roll partner is enough for me even with all the PG's in the West.

Steve Nash (Phx): The last spot for me came down to Nash or Westbook and I went with Nash by a nose due to his plus/minus (5.2) vs. (.3) and Nash's shooting percentages (53% and 42% vs. 43% and 24%). When pace of play and usage rate are factored in, Nash (17.2 ppg, 11 apg, 3.6 rpg) looks at least equal to Westbrook's gaudy numbers (22.7 ppg, 8.5 apg, 5.1 rpg, 1.9 spg). This one could go either way and both would easily make the Eastern squad. A great reason to scrap the conference format and just take the best 14 players in the league. I can't honestly say that resume and the format of the game didn't cloud my decision, but you really can't go wrong with either.

Just missed

In addition to Westbrook, Portland's LaMarcus Aldridge (21 ppg, 9 rpg, 2 apg, 1.2 bpg, 1 spg) just missed and if he played a little more center for the Blazers during the season I would have given him the nod over Pau. Aldridge has taken his game to the paint and is second to Love among West reserves in offensive rebounds/game. His play is holding the Blazers afloat in the West and his plus/minus (3.2) is better than both Griffin's and Love's. If Dirk wants to deservedly take the weekend off, Aldridge is the natural addition.

Zack Randolph (Mem): There is no one better in the league when he gets the ball in the post as evidenced by his numbers (20.2 ppg and 13 rpg). A contending team should really make a play for him at the deadline despite his reputation. He is an automatic double team on the offensive end, but his inability to pass out of the post (1.5 apg) and his defense (.3 bpg) and plus/minus (2.4) leave him a few spots short on this team.

Monta Ellis (GSW): My heart wants to say yes along with his traditional numbers (25.7 ppg, 5.6 apg, 3.3 rpg, 2.26 spg) but his shooting percentages (46% and 37%) and pace of play factors along with his defense and plus/minus (-3.8) make my head say no, at least not in the West.

Not as close as you would think

Tony Parker (SA): His numbers are pretty good (17.5 ppg, 6.9 apg, 3.2 rpg, 1.36 spg) and he is shooting over 50% from the field for the best team in the league, but with the depth of PG's and every other team attacking him with the game on the line, the eye test screams no.

Kevin Martin (Hou): He is a volume scorer (23 ppg) and shoots at a decent clip (44% and 40%), but usage rate and a (.8) plus/minus say everything the scouts having been saying for years.

Lamar Odom (LAL): He is shooting 57% from the field and is averaging 9.5 rpg, which are both very impressive, but Gasol just squeaked by as a backup center and a third Laker who never seperates himself in crunch time or a big game is too much for this team to take on.

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