It happens every year, someone goes crazy Christmas shopping and over spends, maybe the same person does it every year, maybe you know that person or that person is you. There is also the person who shops with an eye towards value, that person finds deals in the market and also makes this a habit. The same thing happens for MLB teams every winter when they sign free agents, keeping that in mind and the fact that value is relative in the monopoly money world of MLB, below are some good and bad free agent signings of the winter.
Jayson Werth (7 yrs. $126 million, $18 million/year): Every year there is an early signing that sets the market and Werth's contract did that this winter. Even more surprisingly than the outrageous amount of the contract was the fact that the Washington Nationals were the team that paid this price. This is a team that is years away from contending with prized prospects Strasburg and Harper and by that time Werth will be a mid 30's outfielder finding it very difficult to put up the same above average numbers he was able to pile up as the Phillies 4th best hitter. .296 avg, 27 HR's, 85 RBI's, 106 Runs, .921 OPS were Werth's numbers last year playing in hitters friendly Citizens Bank park surrounded by Howard, Utley, Victorino, and Rollins, numbers he will find very difficult to duplicate without those surroundings and supporting cast. This contract has all the makings of an Ilya Kovalchuk or Juwan Howard like mistake that could strangle the Nat's for years to come and like those players in other sports Werth is not the best player in his position in the NL.
Adam Dunn (4 yrs. $56 million, $14 million/year): The natural comparison to Werth's deal, since Dunn left Washington to sign with the Chicago White Sox for what now looks like a great value. Dunn is 2 months younger than Werth and has hit at least 38 HR's and drove in at least 100 for three straight seasons, numbers Werth has never reached. Dunn will move mercifully from the field to full time DH and his numbers should improve further by playing in the AL and in hitter friendly US Cellular field. The length of this deal allows the White Sox to keep the proven run producer in their lineup until his 35th birthday and at a number that will allow GM Kenny Williams to make other moves. I love Web Gems as much as the next guy, but 3 years and $70 million seems like a hefty premium for Werth over Dunn.
Carl Crawford (7 yrs. $142 million, $20.2 million/year): When Werth, the second best positional player behind Crawford, signed for that "Dark Knight" like opening number it really cut the market for Carl Crawford down to only two teams that could realistically sign him, the Yankee's and Red Sox. With the Yankee's focused on Cliff Lee and his 7 yr. $165 million contract the door was open for the Red Sox and they signed Crawford. This contract puts Crawford in the top 8 highest paid players in MLB, and though talented he is not one of the best eight players in the game. Crawford's numbers last year were good (.307 avg, 19 HR's, 90 RBI's, 110 Runs, 47 SB's, .851 OPS) and should improve in Fenway with that lineup, but the career .296 hitter was more of a benefit of good luck and the Nat's irrationality.
Derek Jeter (3 yrs. 51 million, $17 million/year with a 8 million 4th year option): Only the Yankee's could make Jeter the highest paid middle infielder after career lows in BA and OBP, and only Jeter, showing Lebron or Tiger-like painful unawareness could say he was angry with how the process went. This would be like a bank robber expressing outrage that he wasn't offered bank employees car key's after robbing the place. So in a year or year and a half when it becomes obvious to everyone that Jeter can't play SS or hit at the top of the order he will still make more than Chase Utley and more than Hanley Ramirez and Brandon Phillips combined. This contract doesn't matter for a team where money is no object as evidenced by the fact that AJ Burnett and Kei Igawa got Yankee contracts for a combined $150 million, but it does make the Juan Uribe (7 million/year) and Miguel Tejada (6.5 million/year) look like deals for more productivity players.
Jorge De La Rosa (2 yrs. $21.5 million, $10.75 million/year with a 3rd year player option for $11 million): My advice to Jorge is to sign that 3rd year player option immediately and buy his agent a new car. Since the Rockies inception as a franchise they have been known as a team to spend haphazardly over pitching, and though this signing is not on the scale of Mike Hampton or Denny Neagle, it still smells of desperation. De La Rosa has a career record of (49-47) with a 5.02 ERA and is (34-24) with a 4.49 ERA in 81 games over three seasons with the Rockies. De La Rosa has also spent time on the DL every season as a Rocky and has yet to start 30 games in Colorado. This deal got lost in the Tulo signing and seems like too steep of a price to pay for productivity that you can get from most Triple A hurlers. Even in a market starved for pitching, value can be had as evidenced by John Garland (1 yr. $5 million), who is (131-114) with a 4.32 ERA for his career and is coming off a 3.47 ERA last year where he made 33 starts for the third straight year.
Javier Vazquez (1 year $7 million): My vote as the best signing of the off-season and it is no surprise that the Florida Marlins were the team to buy low on Vazquez. Vazquez has shown the ability to bounce back from a tough stint with the Yankee's and is a great bet to resemble the pitcher he was for the Braves in 09' when he was 15-10 with a 2.87 ERA and 238 K's and finished fourth in the Cy Young voting. He knows the NL and this division well and will fit in a rotation with Johnson, Nolasco, Sanchez, and Volstad nicely. This looks like an even better move when you consider Florida will pay Vasquez $3.75 and $4.75 million less than De La Rosa and Bronson Arroyo respectively this season.
Victor Martinez (4 yrs. $50 million, $12.5 million year): Martinez had value as a catcher who put up offensive numbers and last year was the only catcher to hit .300 with at least 20 HR's, but calling Martinez a catcher is a bit deceptive since he is awful behind the plate and will have to primarily DH in Detroit. He is an old 32 as his behind the plate time has taking a toll on him and his offensive numbers making a multi-year $50 million contract a big gamble.
Carlos Pena (1 year $10 million): The lovable losers outdid themselves with a 33 year old Pena who hit .196 last year with 158 K's in 484 AB's. On the bright side Pena hit 28 HR's and drove in 84 while playing gold glove defense. The Cubs better hope hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo can work his magic with this crew which looks headed to lead to league in K's with Soriano, Ramirez, and Pena leading the way. Adam LaRoche would have brought the same costs and benefits as Pena at half the cost.
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