Saturday, December 4, 2010

College Football Week 14

"Championship Saturday" brings us to the end of the college football season with only the convoluted bowl games left on the schedule. It has been an interesting 13 weeks and I hate to see it end, especially coming off a 5-2 week with are only losses being Mike Gundy and the Cowboys inability to "man up" at home vs. our "white whale" this season, Oklahoma, and the epic fold up by Saban's crew in the Iron Bowl. As for the Iron Bowl it was the best college football game of the year, Auburn and Cash (I mean Cam) Newton showed they are a team that never gives up and it was truly impressive to see them rally from 24-0 down on the road against a Nick Saban coached defense. As for Bama, it is going to be a long month of defensive practices after that showing and though Ingram's fumble was costly, I believe the tipping point was the 70 yard TD pass to open the second half. On that play Bama S Mark Barron looked as confused and inept as the red team trying to complete a challenge on Cut-throat. Not only did the score get Auburn to within 24-14 a minute into the second half, it gave Auburn the confidence they could score at will. Who am I, Bill Walton, enough looking in the past onto this week's slate.

SEC Championship; Auburn (-4.5) vs. South Carolina: A rematch of an Auburn comeback victory earlier this season and the last hurdle between Auburn and the title game. South Carolina has been very impressive the last two weeks in wins over Florida and Clemson, relying on RB Marcus Lattimore and an opportunistic defense that has forced 5 turnovers during that span. Lattimore will get a heavy workload, even against a top ten rushing defense, which should set up the play action pass and WR Alshon Jeffery will continue the trend of big time receivers shredding the Auburn defense. I expect South Carolina to score some points, but DT Nick Fairley will make enough defensive plays to allow the Auburn offense to outscore South Carolina on the way to the title game. I don't think it is a wise move to bet against Cam Newton after last week and I think he will be even more explosive on turf in the Georgia Dome making Auburn laying the points the play.

ACC Championship; VTech (-4.5) vs. Florida State: VTech has won 11 in a row featuring one of the most balanced offenses in the country with a versatile 3 headed RB combo (Evans/Wilson/Williams) and QB Tyrod Taylor who has thrown only 4 INT's to 20 TD's. The venue for this title game has changed as often as a Buffalo Bills home game, in the case the game being played in Charlotte should also benefit VTech. FSU has come on strong late and got into this game thanks to a Maryland upset of NC State. The key for the Seminoles will be if QB Christian Ponder can be smart with the football, his penchant for turning it over plays into the hands of the VTech defense which has 20 INT's this season. I like FSU's momentum and Jimbo Fisher's coaching job, I think Ponder will play smart making FSU and the points the play.

Big 12 Championship; Oklahoma (-5) vs. Nebraska: It is fitting these two former Big 8 rivals met in the last Big 12 title game. Nebraska's season has been in flux with all of QB Taylor Martinez's injuries and Martinez is again listed as questionable for this game. Even if a not 100% percent Martinez plays Nebraska will try to win this game by running the ball and playing solid defense. Regular readers know that Oklahoma has been our "white whale" this season and has probably accounted for 10 of our losses this season whether picking them to win or lose. The Landry Jones/Ryan Broyles combo has been explosive, and will be a great strength for strength matchup against Nebraska CB Prince Amukamara and the #1 ranked Nebraska pass defense. This game means more to Nebraska after being robbed in this game last year and I like their run the ball/solid defense game plan making Nebraska and the points the play.

Oregon (-16.5) @ Oregon State: Oregon State has been a roller coaster team all season and needs a win in this game to become bowl eligible. Meanwhile, Oregon is undefeated and like Auburn one win away from playing for the title. Oregon has made a habit of coming from behind and burying teams in the second half, but that shouldn't be necessary vs. an Ore. St defense that gives up more than 400 yds/game. An early lead would take Oregon State's best player, RB Jacquizz Rodgers out of the game and force the game into QB Ryan Katz's hands. Oregon hasn't had trouble laying double digits points all year and I am going to lay the points with the favorite again in this game.

Washington (-6) @ Washington State: Washington's year hasn't been pretty and nothing shows that more than QB Jake Locker's draft status from a pre-season top 5 pick to second rounder. This is an important game not just to get UW bowl eligible, but to push on their season win total. Playing one of the worst teams in a power conference should help on both fronts.

Last week (5-2)

Season (53-41-1)

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