October Baseball

We will cover all the bases with this look at October baseball, first we will talk NL and AL MVP's and Cy Young winners and then move on to who is advancing to the LCS'. First, a look back at who should win the NL MVP using some new/old stats and the always popular eye test.

Contenders: Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Justin Upton and Albert Pujols. We are using the words contenders liberally by including Fielder, Upton, and Pujols, but a look at their numbers show how great the seasons of Braun and Kemp were. Kemp leads the league in WAR (10), HR (39), RBI (126), R (115), while hitting .324 (3^rd in the league) and stealing 40 bases while only being caught 11 times (+29). Kemp is clearly the best player in the league using old stats (Avg, HR, RBI, R) as well as new and better stats (WAR, OPS, SB/CS). He also plays on a team where Andre Either and James Loney are his best offensive teammates leading to a team record that hovers around .500, but in the ultimate individual sport disguised as a team sport, should that matter? I say the answer in Kemp's case is clearly no, the guy is having one of the best offensive seasons in recent memory and he is underrated which seems impossible when he plays in LA. More people know about the Dodgers ownership issues from TMZ and Curb, but that shouldn't take away the well deserved spotlight on Kemp and his season. Ryan Braun had a great year in leading the Brewers to the playoffs, he finished ahead of Kemp in average (.332 to .324) and OPS (.994 to .986), but he hit 6 less homers with 2.3 less WAR and even his +27 SB ratio was behind Kemp's and most importantly Braun hit in front of Prince Fielder. Fielder finished the season with a 5.2 WAR, .981 OPS, along with 38 HR and 120 RBI. These numbers put Fielder in the discussion for NL MVP even though I believe he wasn't the most valuable Brewer and they most certainly hurt Braun's case for MVP when comparing his situation to Kemp's.

The Cardinals making the playoffs due to the Braves collapse was surprising, but equally as surprising was the Cards ability to win the Wild Card with Albert Pujols' season. Pujols finished with the lowest WAR among the NL MVP contenders (5.1) and his .906 OPS is miles away from Braun, Kemp and Fielder. His 37 HR's ranked third in the league, but he also failed to hit .300 or drive in 100 runs and added nothing on the bases.

Justin Upton is the Dbacks best player and had a nice season (6.4 WAR, .898 OPS, 31 HR, 88 RBI, +12 on the bases), but the only number that sticks out when discussing his season is his 7.7 UZR. Ultimate Zone Rating is the best way we have to judge a player defensively and Upton's ranking validates what we know when we watch him play. Compared to the other NL contenders (Kemp -4.3, Braun -3.8, Fielder -4.5, and Pujols .1) Upton is by far the most valuable defensively, but it still doesn't make up for his offensive numbers and of all the stats UZR is the most ambiguous.

The AL also has some interesting contenders for MVP, most notably Jose Bautista, Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander. The "should a pitcher win MVP" debate has been brought back to the foreground this season with Verlander. I have no problem with a pitcher winning the award, but this season even though Verlander (21-4, 2.40 ERA, 250 K, 251 IP, .92 WHIP) has been great, I don't think he has the numbers or magical moments to overcome an everyday player. He is also playing with Cabrera who has a 7.1 WAR, OPS of 1.033, 30 HR, 105 RBI, and .344 average. Verlander carried the Tigers through the summer, but they won the division by 10+ games and have one of the top 5 hitters in the AL. Say Verlander had an ERA under 2 and went 5-0 in September to win the division by a game with James Loney as his first baseman, then he should be the slam dunk MVP, but this season he is the slam dunk Cy Young winner, but not MVP.

Just as Kemp was the best player in the NL on a .500 team, Bautista is the best player in the AL also on a .500 team. Bautista leads the league in WAR (8.6), OPS (1.056), and HR (43) and leads the league in power numbers by a wide margin. These are the most important numbers for a hitter and you can't ignore that Bautista is the class of the AL in this department. Ellsbury has had a breakthrough season (7.2 WAR, .928 OPS, 32 HR, +24 SB, astronomical 16.8 UZR) and is the best player on the Sox, which is a very strong statement, but he is still a tier below Bautista and that is even before you consider home/road splits. Speaking of home/road splits and new vs. old school numbers, Curtis Granderson has a lot of HR's (41), RBI's (119), and Runs (136) but they are more of an indication of the support in the Yanks lineup and a favorably home hitting park. Granderson's 7.0 WAR is lower than Bautista, Ellsbury, and Cabrera's and his .916 OPS is well behind those players as well. His -5.1 UZR and +15 SB are both numbers that indicate his more pretender than AL MVP contender.

As we mentioned in the AL MVP discussion, Verlander is the run-away Cy Young winner. The NL is more complicated, but I am going with Clayton Kershaw. He leads the league in wins (21), ERA (2.29), K's (250), and WHIP (.92). Normally those stats would generate a run-away winner, but when you factor in fielding independent of pitching and home parks, Roy Halladay jumps right into the discussion with Kershaw. Halladay does have to overcome voter fatigue, high expectations and being part of a staff with Lee, Hamels, Worley, and Oswalt. I still think Kershaw is the deserving winner, but it is a lot closer than you would expect with Kershaw winning the pitching triple crown.

Now that we have settled the MVP and Cy Young discussions, let's move on to first round matchups.

Tampa vs. Texas: My favorite first round matchup, the ultimate underdog Rays vs. a Texas team that is turning into a powerhouse under Ryan, Daniels and Washington. I love that the Ray's are starting Matt Moore in Game 1 and if he is going well the Rays could have the better rotation in this series. Texas has a better lineup than last year and even though Cliff Lee is a Philly, I like the Rangers in 5.

Detroit vs. NYY: The Tigers aren't just Verlander, though what Verlander does tonight will be a major indication of how this series goes. The Tigers have made a living off of bad AL Central pitching and after CC the Yanks rotation looks an awful lot like the Twins, Royals, and White Sox. I like the Tigers in 4.

Arizona vs. Milwaukee: Both teams played hard to the last day to secure home field in an evenly matched series. Arizona will defend and play small ball, while the Crew will is all power on the mound and at the plate. I like the Brewers formula better for playoff success.

St. Louis vs. Philadelphia: The Cards are in due to decent play down the stretch and the Braves collapse, but are behind the 8 ball in terms of rotation setup and ability. I wouldn't take over on Cards wins in this series if the total was .5.