NFL Week 1

Now that the NFL owners have beat the players like they were the Bills ( because really who wants more revenue when you cut training camp practices from 2 to 1) and ended the lockout and everyone has completed their fantasy drafts it is finally time to move on to the regular season. Thursday night football still seems a bit weird even with a full flegged Kid Rock concert prior to the season opener primarily due to a full day of work still left in the week, so we are skipping that game along with some others and focusing on 5 games I like this weekend and also the totals of those 10 teams.

Tennessee +2.5 @ Jacksonville: Now that Peyton Manning had surgery and will likely miss the regular season the AFC South is wide open. The Titans mercifully ended the Jeff Fisher and Vince Young era this offseason and even though Matt Hassleback doesn't sound like the answer playing behind one of the best O-lines in football and handing the ball the CJ 25 times a game is a solid plan. Jacksonville cutting David Garrard this week and handing the reins to Luke McCown reinforces the point that the Jack Del Rio era has lasted far too long. Both teams season win totals are (6.5) with the Titans over at -125 and the Jags under at -150. Though neither come with a value sign I like both bets as the Titans are a sleeper who should cover the 6.5 with room to spare and I predict Blaine Gabbert will be trying to get win #4 for a Del Rio less Jags squad come January.

Cleveland -7 vs. Cincinnati: Sticking with some of the worst games on the Sunday slate, the battle of Ohio. Can you really blame Carson Palmer for not wanting to endure another year of misery in Cincy? The Bengals drafted AJ Green and jettisoned TO and Ocho-Cinco, but with a weak O-line and Ced Benson facing jail time, Palmer choose to hang it up and the reins were handed to rookie Andy Dalton. Cleveland has second year QB Colt McCoy along with a new coach in year 2 of Holmgreen's re-build by the lake and most of all a truly favorable first 10 games of the schedule. I think Dalton will be a quality QB, but starting on the road with his supporting cast is asking too much. Dick Jauron is a good hire as Defensive Cord. for the Browns and I think he will get the most out of this unit and the switch to the 4-3, like Will Arnet, Jauron is much better as a supporting actor than lead man. The Browns will rely on Hillis early, but I think WR Greg Little will emerge and be a 3rd round or better fantasy pick this time next year. The Browns total is (6.5) with the over at a reasonable -110 and with McCoy in his soph year and with the most favorable first 10 game schedule in the league the over should be buried by Xmas. As for the Bengals the total is (5.5) and the under is again a reasonable -115. Like Carson Palmer I will take the under on this total.

St. Louis +5 vs. Philadelphia: One of the best games of the day features the Dream Team in the dome vs. Bradford and the Rams. The Rams were feisty last season and are poised to take a step forward this season with more depth at the skill positions and a second year for the defense in coach Steve Spagnulo's system. They will make Vick and his O-line's day miserable Sunday and if they don't win they won't lose by more than a field goal. The Eagles deservedly have the most pre-season hype, but questions on the O-line in the defensive front seven will not only hurt them Sunday but will keep them under 10.5 wins with a +120 value. The Rams total sits at (7.5, even money) and not only do I like the over, but I like their +150 division odds as well. Even with a tougher schedule this year they still play 6 games vs. the own division where every team (SF, Sea, and Arz) could be worse than last season.

San Diego -9 vs. Minnesota: Betting on Norv and the Bolts early in the season hasn't been a profitable move, but they have to end that streak this season, right? Opening at home vs. a McNabb led team is as favorable as possible and no team benefits more from the change in kickoff position. The law of averages has to favor the SD special teams this season and this offense should average in 30's all season barring major injury to Rivers. Unless Minny turns to Percy Harvin running the Wildcat next to AP I think they will consistently struggle to score points. Diego's win total (10, -140) is a number I usual stay away from, but with the current state of the AFC West even Norv can't screw this up, right? Minny was 6-10 last season and that seems about right this season, so even a total at (7, even) isn't scaring me away. The overs I like in Minny is QB changes, AP carries, and then AP's holdout next offseason.

Dallas + 5 @ NY Jets: For the first time in years the Cowboys seem to be keeping a low profile and that has to be due to new coach Jason Garrett, whereas there is still a lot of noise coming out of Rex Ryan's Jets camp. This is one of the best games of opening weekend and is better than both Monday night games (NE/Miami, Oak/Den). Romo and Dez Byrant are healthy and the Cowboys have depth at running back, if the other Ryan (Rob) can get the Boys D to play decent they should contend in the NFC East and go over their win total (9 + 105). The defense should get a nice start to the season vs. Mark Sanchez and the Jets conservative game plan Sunday night. Meanwhile, the Jets have lost Ellis and Jenkins on the D-line and will continue to rely heavily on an aging LT and an underperforming Shonn Greene. This is a statement game and I like the understated Garrett and his Cowboys to make the biggest statement. The Jets are a trendy Super Bowl pick so that is reason enough to take under (10) at -110.