October Baseball

We will cover all the bases with this look at October baseball, first we will talk NL and AL MVP's and Cy Young winners and then move on to who is advancing to the LCS'. First, a look back at who should win the NL MVP using some new/old stats and the always popular eye test.

Contenders: Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Justin Upton and Albert Pujols. We are using the words contenders liberally by including Fielder, Upton, and Pujols, but a look at their numbers show how great the seasons of Braun and Kemp were. Kemp leads the league in WAR (10), HR (39), RBI (126), R (115), while hitting .324 (3^rd in the league) and stealing 40 bases while only being caught 11 times (+29). Kemp is clearly the best player in the league using old stats (Avg, HR, RBI, R) as well as new and better stats (WAR, OPS, SB/CS). He also plays on a team where Andre Either and James Loney are his best offensive teammates leading to a team record that hovers around .500, but in the ultimate individual sport disguised as a team sport, should that matter? I say the answer in Kemp's case is clearly no, the guy is having one of the best offensive seasons in recent memory and he is underrated which seems impossible when he plays in LA. More people know about the Dodgers ownership issues from TMZ and Curb, but that shouldn't take away the well deserved spotlight on Kemp and his season. Ryan Braun had a great year in leading the Brewers to the playoffs, he finished ahead of Kemp in average (.332 to .324) and OPS (.994 to .986), but he hit 6 less homers with 2.3 less WAR and even his +27 SB ratio was behind Kemp's and most importantly Braun hit in front of Prince Fielder. Fielder finished the season with a 5.2 WAR, .981 OPS, along with 38 HR and 120 RBI. These numbers put Fielder in the discussion for NL MVP even though I believe he wasn't the most valuable Brewer and they most certainly hurt Braun's case for MVP when comparing his situation to Kemp's.

The Cardinals making the playoffs due to the Braves collapse was surprising, but equally as surprising was the Cards ability to win the Wild Card with Albert Pujols' season. Pujols finished with the lowest WAR among the NL MVP contenders (5.1) and his .906 OPS is miles away from Braun, Kemp and Fielder. His 37 HR's ranked third in the league, but he also failed to hit .300 or drive in 100 runs and added nothing on the bases.

Justin Upton is the Dbacks best player and had a nice season (6.4 WAR, .898 OPS, 31 HR, 88 RBI, +12 on the bases), but the only number that sticks out when discussing his season is his 7.7 UZR. Ultimate Zone Rating is the best way we have to judge a player defensively and Upton's ranking validates what we know when we watch him play. Compared to the other NL contenders (Kemp -4.3, Braun -3.8, Fielder -4.5, and Pujols .1) Upton is by far the most valuable defensively, but it still doesn't make up for his offensive numbers and of all the stats UZR is the most ambiguous.

The AL also has some interesting contenders for MVP, most notably Jose Bautista, Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson, Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander. The "should a pitcher win MVP" debate has been brought back to the foreground this season with Verlander. I have no problem with a pitcher winning the award, but this season even though Verlander (21-4, 2.40 ERA, 250 K, 251 IP, .92 WHIP) has been great, I don't think he has the numbers or magical moments to overcome an everyday player. He is also playing with Cabrera who has a 7.1 WAR, OPS of 1.033, 30 HR, 105 RBI, and .344 average. Verlander carried the Tigers through the summer, but they won the division by 10+ games and have one of the top 5 hitters in the AL. Say Verlander had an ERA under 2 and went 5-0 in September to win the division by a game with James Loney as his first baseman, then he should be the slam dunk MVP, but this season he is the slam dunk Cy Young winner, but not MVP.

Just as Kemp was the best player in the NL on a .500 team, Bautista is the best player in the AL also on a .500 team. Bautista leads the league in WAR (8.6), OPS (1.056), and HR (43) and leads the league in power numbers by a wide margin. These are the most important numbers for a hitter and you can't ignore that Bautista is the class of the AL in this department. Ellsbury has had a breakthrough season (7.2 WAR, .928 OPS, 32 HR, +24 SB, astronomical 16.8 UZR) and is the best player on the Sox, which is a very strong statement, but he is still a tier below Bautista and that is even before you consider home/road splits. Speaking of home/road splits and new vs. old school numbers, Curtis Granderson has a lot of HR's (41), RBI's (119), and Runs (136) but they are more of an indication of the support in the Yanks lineup and a favorably home hitting park. Granderson's 7.0 WAR is lower than Bautista, Ellsbury, and Cabrera's and his .916 OPS is well behind those players as well. His -5.1 UZR and +15 SB are both numbers that indicate his more pretender than AL MVP contender.

As we mentioned in the AL MVP discussion, Verlander is the run-away Cy Young winner. The NL is more complicated, but I am going with Clayton Kershaw. He leads the league in wins (21), ERA (2.29), K's (250), and WHIP (.92). Normally those stats would generate a run-away winner, but when you factor in fielding independent of pitching and home parks, Roy Halladay jumps right into the discussion with Kershaw. Halladay does have to overcome voter fatigue, high expectations and being part of a staff with Lee, Hamels, Worley, and Oswalt. I still think Kershaw is the deserving winner, but it is a lot closer than you would expect with Kershaw winning the pitching triple crown.

Now that we have settled the MVP and Cy Young discussions, let's move on to first round matchups.

Tampa vs. Texas: My favorite first round matchup, the ultimate underdog Rays vs. a Texas team that is turning into a powerhouse under Ryan, Daniels and Washington. I love that the Ray's are starting Matt Moore in Game 1 and if he is going well the Rays could have the better rotation in this series. Texas has a better lineup than last year and even though Cliff Lee is a Philly, I like the Rangers in 5.

Detroit vs. NYY: The Tigers aren't just Verlander, though what Verlander does tonight will be a major indication of how this series goes. The Tigers have made a living off of bad AL Central pitching and after CC the Yanks rotation looks an awful lot like the Twins, Royals, and White Sox. I like the Tigers in 4.

Arizona vs. Milwaukee: Both teams played hard to the last day to secure home field in an evenly matched series. Arizona will defend and play small ball, while the Crew will is all power on the mound and at the plate. I like the Brewers formula better for playoff success.

St. Louis vs. Philadelphia: The Cards are in due to decent play down the stretch and the Braves collapse, but are behind the 8 ball in terms of rotation setup and ability. I wouldn't take over on Cards wins in this series if the total was .5.

Attitude is Everything

With the Williams' sisters injured, Andy Roddick in the twilight of his career, and a lack of up and coming young players the state of recent American tennis has been as barren as the trophy case at Wrigley Field. Even so, it was no surprise that the Americans put up their best showing in a major last week on home soil, with Serena Williams and Andy Roddick healthy they made decent showings and there were some mild surprises in the play of John Isner, Donald Young on the men's side and a flash of future hope in the women's draw with decent runs by 19 year old Christina McHale and 18 year old Sloan Stephens. Even though the 2011 US Open was a recent high mark for American tennis, I couldn't help but find myself as a tennis fan who lives in America embarrassed by the behavior of most of the American players.

For Serena it was the same old story as she called the chair umpire an "ugly person on the inside" after the chair umpire made the correct call, which happened to go against her. Her behavior this year continued a pattern that dates back to her threatening to shove a ball down a lineswoman's throat after she again made a correct call that happened to go against Williams in the '09 Open. Maybe even more troubling is that Williams has failed to apologize for either embarrassing incident. Instead of spending time on the fashion circuit or even on the practice courts, I think Williams needs a few episodes of "Curb" where she can learn how to apologize from the master Larry David. Ego and self belief have always been some of Serena Williams' best traits, but by personally attacking officials who make the correct calls that just happen to go against her she has entered an ugly stage of her career that has the possibility to be just as defining as her major titles.

It seems that Roddick has realized not only has his "prime" taken place in the Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic eras, but that father time is now closing in on him and his days of being a top 25 player are numbered. You can have a great debate about whether Roddick's career has been a disappointment or just bad luck (I tend to think 75 to 25 in favor of disappointment), but one thing is certain, Roddick has upped his complaining and antics as his game has slipped. Roddick loves to cite McEnroe's emotion, but the game has changed and instant replay has taken out 99% of the subjectivity involved in officiating a tennis match. When Roddick argues with umpires and attacks the media for being "too hard" on him he comes off as bitter and unlikeable as Jose Canseco.

The need to complain and make an embarrassing scene even seeped into Mardy Fish's game, who by the way was the top seeded American man. In a round of 16 match in Ashe Stadium where Fish had 99% fan support he managed to get into with Tsonga's box (maybe 16 people in a stadium of 23,000). It was no surprise that after Fish let that small percentage of Tsonga fans get to him that he was eliminated by the Frenchman.

Even with these aforementioned incidents, the spoiled brat award goes to American Ryan Harrison. Harrison was labeled as the next star in the men's game, but his attitude and actions became so tiresome that the American crowd booed him during his first round loss. It really takes quit a spectacle to turn the New York crowd against a young American, but Harrison was up to the task with his multiple racket tosses, profanity laced tirades, and overall poor attitude. If he is the future of American's men's tennis all American tennis fans are going to be rooting against the Stars and Stripes.

It is one thing to be unable to win or compete for major titles, but it is quite another to be embarrassment for all American tennis fans and that is the current state of USA tennis.

NFL Week 1

Now that the NFL owners have beat the players like they were the Bills ( because really who wants more revenue when you cut training camp practices from 2 to 1) and ended the lockout and everyone has completed their fantasy drafts it is finally time to move on to the regular season. Thursday night football still seems a bit weird even with a full flegged Kid Rock concert prior to the season opener primarily due to a full day of work still left in the week, so we are skipping that game along with some others and focusing on 5 games I like this weekend and also the totals of those 10 teams.

Tennessee +2.5 @ Jacksonville: Now that Peyton Manning had surgery and will likely miss the regular season the AFC South is wide open. The Titans mercifully ended the Jeff Fisher and Vince Young era this offseason and even though Matt Hassleback doesn't sound like the answer playing behind one of the best O-lines in football and handing the ball the CJ 25 times a game is a solid plan. Jacksonville cutting David Garrard this week and handing the reins to Luke McCown reinforces the point that the Jack Del Rio era has lasted far too long. Both teams season win totals are (6.5) with the Titans over at -125 and the Jags under at -150. Though neither come with a value sign I like both bets as the Titans are a sleeper who should cover the 6.5 with room to spare and I predict Blaine Gabbert will be trying to get win #4 for a Del Rio less Jags squad come January.

Cleveland -7 vs. Cincinnati: Sticking with some of the worst games on the Sunday slate, the battle of Ohio. Can you really blame Carson Palmer for not wanting to endure another year of misery in Cincy? The Bengals drafted AJ Green and jettisoned TO and Ocho-Cinco, but with a weak O-line and Ced Benson facing jail time, Palmer choose to hang it up and the reins were handed to rookie Andy Dalton. Cleveland has second year QB Colt McCoy along with a new coach in year 2 of Holmgreen's re-build by the lake and most of all a truly favorable first 10 games of the schedule. I think Dalton will be a quality QB, but starting on the road with his supporting cast is asking too much. Dick Jauron is a good hire as Defensive Cord. for the Browns and I think he will get the most out of this unit and the switch to the 4-3, like Will Arnet, Jauron is much better as a supporting actor than lead man. The Browns will rely on Hillis early, but I think WR Greg Little will emerge and be a 3rd round or better fantasy pick this time next year. The Browns total is (6.5) with the over at a reasonable -110 and with McCoy in his soph year and with the most favorable first 10 game schedule in the league the over should be buried by Xmas. As for the Bengals the total is (5.5) and the under is again a reasonable -115. Like Carson Palmer I will take the under on this total.

St. Louis +5 vs. Philadelphia: One of the best games of the day features the Dream Team in the dome vs. Bradford and the Rams. The Rams were feisty last season and are poised to take a step forward this season with more depth at the skill positions and a second year for the defense in coach Steve Spagnulo's system. They will make Vick and his O-line's day miserable Sunday and if they don't win they won't lose by more than a field goal. The Eagles deservedly have the most pre-season hype, but questions on the O-line in the defensive front seven will not only hurt them Sunday but will keep them under 10.5 wins with a +120 value. The Rams total sits at (7.5, even money) and not only do I like the over, but I like their +150 division odds as well. Even with a tougher schedule this year they still play 6 games vs. the own division where every team (SF, Sea, and Arz) could be worse than last season.

San Diego -9 vs. Minnesota: Betting on Norv and the Bolts early in the season hasn't been a profitable move, but they have to end that streak this season, right? Opening at home vs. a McNabb led team is as favorable as possible and no team benefits more from the change in kickoff position. The law of averages has to favor the SD special teams this season and this offense should average in 30's all season barring major injury to Rivers. Unless Minny turns to Percy Harvin running the Wildcat next to AP I think they will consistently struggle to score points. Diego's win total (10, -140) is a number I usual stay away from, but with the current state of the AFC West even Norv can't screw this up, right? Minny was 6-10 last season and that seems about right this season, so even a total at (7, even) isn't scaring me away. The overs I like in Minny is QB changes, AP carries, and then AP's holdout next offseason.

Dallas + 5 @ NY Jets: For the first time in years the Cowboys seem to be keeping a low profile and that has to be due to new coach Jason Garrett, whereas there is still a lot of noise coming out of Rex Ryan's Jets camp. This is one of the best games of opening weekend and is better than both Monday night games (NE/Miami, Oak/Den). Romo and Dez Byrant are healthy and the Cowboys have depth at running back, if the other Ryan (Rob) can get the Boys D to play decent they should contend in the NFC East and go over their win total (9 + 105). The defense should get a nice start to the season vs. Mark Sanchez and the Jets conservative game plan Sunday night. Meanwhile, the Jets have lost Ellis and Jenkins on the D-line and will continue to rely heavily on an aging LT and an underperforming Shonn Greene. This is a statement game and I like the understated Garrett and his Cowboys to make the biggest statement. The Jets are a trendy Super Bowl pick so that is reason enough to take under (10) at -110.