Now that Mark Cuban has slept with the Larry O'Brien trophy and Dirk is readying for a well deserved vacation, D Wade can add a couple acting lessons to his summer schedule and Lebron holds up in his mansion with his inner circle telling him how great he is and how pathetic the lives of all his doubters are, the sports calendar is wide open. There isn't much left to dissect in the NHL as the Stanley Cup will come down to one game Wednesday night in Vancouver and then the PGA tour will have the sports stage this Father's Day weekend for the US Open. The most grueling test in golf returns to the US Capital City as a revamped Congressional will host. The Open has been at Congressional twice before, first in '64 when Ken Venturi secured his broadcasting future by winning the tournament in the scorching heat after nearly collapsing during the 36 hole finish, and again in '97 when a young Ernie Els got his second Open victory thanks to late round mistakes by Lehman and Monty. The common theme in both years was the oppressive heat and the "at best" forgettable layout making the 15 years between hosting seem like not long enough for this venue. The biggest and much needed change to the course was making the previous par 3 18th the new 10th hole and lengthening the old 17th hole and making it the finishing hole. Even with the changes and re-built greens, Congressional will never be mistaken for Pebble, the Olympic Club, or Oakmont. The heat has always been a major factor at every tournament played at Congressional and should always be considered when viewing odds, so below is the extended forecast.
Thursday: High of 78, 60% chance of T-storms
Friday: High of 81, 40% chance of scattered T-storms
Saturday: High of 86, partly cloudy, 10% chance of T-storms
Sunday: High of 87, sunny, 10% chance of T-storms.
Hopefully, that forecast holds and the weather becomes the second biggest non-story of the weekend behind Tiger Woods. The fact of the matter is Tiger Woods had no chance of winning this tournament if he entered without playing any meaningful golf since the Masters. The only thing that he affects by not playing is the odds for the rest of the field; the public's affection for Tiger is so great that he would be no worse than second or third favorite even if he showed up in a wheel chair. My mistake, the other thing he affects is the TV coverage, without him in the field you might actually get to see live golf shots by people contending instead of a montage of Tiger's entire round every hour on the hour. Below are the odds to win this weekend broken down into tiers with some suggestions for each group and an in-depth look at the favorites.
Pettersson (125/1) Vegas (100/1) Overton (125/1) Stenson (125/1) Villegas (125/1) Van Pelt (125/1) Crane (125/1) Z. Johnson (100/1) T. Clark (100/1) Cink (100/1) Fisher (100/1) Karlsson (100/1) M.A. Jimenez (100/1) Oosthuizen (100/1) Woodland (100/1) E. Molinari (100/1)
Worth a shot: Villegas: He has made five straight cuts at the Open and though he is struggling this season he is coming off his only T10 this season (3rd last week). He is long enough to have short irons in and when putting well has shown he can win on some of the best courses on tour.
Van Pelt: Made the cut in 3 of his 4 Open starts, finishing 40th or better in those three. Dating back to last year's US Open he has finished T40, T44, T28, and 8th in the last four majors, major player on the rise.
Fisher: He has top 20's in every major and showed his US Open chops with a 5th place finish at Bethpage in '09. Not as well known to US fans as the other Euro's, unless you watched him terrorize the US Ryder Cup team. Mild, rainy weather will only help his chances.
Former major winners: Cink: His best US Open finishes are over 5 years ago and nothing he has done recently would suggest that the 38 year old (seems like he should be 48) will contend.
Z. Johnson: His straight driving and short game expertise would make you think he would do well in this event, but in 7 starts he has 4 MC's and a best finish of T48.
Oosthuizen: Last year's British Open run-away winner hasn't made a cut at a major since and his present game looks more like Todd Hamiliton than Ernie Els.
Side note: Robert Karlsson is somehow the #17 ranked player in the world, with his two worldwide wins since '08 coming in January and November of '09 in the Middle East. He also has one T10 finish in a major in the last 3 years (T8 in the '09 PGA). This is the biggest indictment of the World Golf Rankings I have seen in since the women's French Open draw, if Karlsson is 17th I would hate to see who is #18.
Yang (80/1) Immelman (80/1) Moore (80/1) Sabbiatini (80/1) Allenby (80/1) Barnes (80/1) Laird (80/1) B. Haas (80/1) Cabrera (80/1) Quiros (80/1)
Worth a shot: Barnes: Has played in two US Opens as a professional and finished T2 and T27, the US Amateur champ seems to like the USGA setup and majors in general.
Laird: Doesn't have much major experience, but has finished T48 and T20 in last year's PGA and this year's Masters and seems to have a way to find the middle of leaderboards.
Moore: Has made the cut three of 4 starts at the US Open and T33 and T10 are his high finishes.
Former major winners: Yang: Missed the cut in his only US Open start last year, but has played well this season and wouldn't be the first time he contended out of nowhere.
Immelman: US Open course setups are not very forgiven for players coming off hand and wrist injuries.
Cabrera: Contended in the final round of this year's Masters after a Titanic like '10 season, in 11 US Open starts he has made the cut 10 times to go along with his win at Oakmont. I would have set that total at half that amount of cuts made.
Side note: I wanted to make a case for young players on the rise, Haas and Quiros, but Quiros has missed the cut in both US Open starts and Haas hasn't played an Open as a professional. Both have the games and temperaments to contend especially on a non-descript layout like Congressional, but both will need Lucas Glover like weeks.
Fowler (66/1) Goosen (66/1) F. Molinari (66/1) Snedeker (66/1) Baddeley (66/1) Glover (60/1)
Worth a shot: Snedeker: Made the cut in 3 of his 4 US Open starts with finishes of T8, T9, and T23. Currently playing very well with 6 top ten's this season included a win at Hilton Head.
F. Molinari: The birth of his first child this year has cut into his playing schedule, but he has the game to compete on hard golf courses and in two US Open starts he has one T25 finish. Doesn't he seem like the non-descript under the radar Euro who could win America's Open?
Former major winners: Goosen: His T3 last week in Memphis was his first top ten of the season, but the former two time champ has 4 T15's to go along with his 2 US Open wins and will be a trendy veteran selection.
Glover: The example of someone coming out of nowhere to win this tourney, he hadn't made a previous US Open cut before his win in '09 and his only win prior was Disney. Won again this year at the Wells Fargo, but doesn't seem like a guy you have to worry about being a 2 time US Open champ.
Side note: Fowler and Baddeley are two of my favorites on tour and I hope they contend, but the US Open has been the worst major for both and both are more likely to play birdie/bogey golf than the US Open desired par/par.
Mannassero (55/1) Garcia (50/1) Harrington (50/1) Day (50/1) Poulter (50/1)
Worth a shot: Day: This is his first US Open start, but in his first start in each of the other 3 majors he made the cut and finished T10 at the PGA and T2 at this year's Masters.
Former major winner: Harrington: By far the major Paddy has had the least amount of success playing, missed the cut in two of the last 4 years and hasn't finished inside the T25 since '06. Like Cink, he is 38, but seems a decade older.
Side note: I was surprised to see Sergio go through sectional qualifying for this event, but after checking out his US Open record (11 starts, 7 T25 finishes, 2 MC's and consecutive finishes of T18, T10, and T22) I was as surprised as when I checked out Cabrera's record..
Toms (40/1) Kim (40/1) Scott (40/1):
Worth a shot: Kim: He won on this course at the 2008 AT&T National and has finishes of T20, T26, and T16 in his three US Open starts before missing last season with a wrist injury. He hasn't been the same player since the injury, but has the talent and history to contend this week.
Former major winner: Toms: You would have won a lot of money if you would have bet someone at the beginning of the season that Toms would have more top 10's than Scott and Kim combined at this point in the season.
Side note: This is the only major Scott doesn't have a T10 (T21 in '06 is his best finish), he seems to have found his stroke with the long putter and will have Tiger's bodyguard Steve Williams on the bag to destroy any cameras if necessary. If Tiger is out long term maybe Stevie has a future with the Secret Service?
Casey (33/1) Choi (33/1) (Rose 33/1) Furyk (33/1) Ogilivy (33/1) Schwartzel (33/1) Watson (33/1)
Worth a shot: Choi: He hasn't had much success at the US Open, but he did win the AT&T National at this course in '07 and contending this year at the Masters and winning the Players gives him a lot of positive vibes.
Rose: He is more of a ball striker than a feel player which should be an advantage at this course, won two times on the PGA tour last summer in the heat and is a native Euro who is comfortable on US soil and with US crowds.
Former major winners: Furyk: His win in '03 and back to back 2nd's in '06 and '07 seem like a generation ago as the 41 year old doesn't have a top ten this season and faded during last year's PGA. Furyk's career ark seems to be headed the way of Posada or Jeter and too bad for him that in golf you don't have a Steinbrenner to pay you twice market value for previous success.
Ogilvy: Suffered through a brutal season last year and missed the cut in last year's US Open, but has rebounded this season to contend at the Masters and his 5 straight top 40 finishes before last year's US Open coupled with the '06 win make him a solid option at this price.
Schwartzel: Emerged from the pack on Sunday at Augusta to win his first major after a run of consistently good play in the majors. Expect him to be in the conversation, but two majors in a row is too much to ask.
Side note: When you think US Open you have a tendency to think that the winner is a short hitter who finds the fairway, but the stats show a big hitter is usually the winner. Watson clearly meets that requirement, but the ability to stay away from the "others" will determine if he contends on a USGA setup.
Watney (28/1) McDowell (28/1) Kuchar (25/1) Mahan (25/1)
Quality Plays: Watney: His seems to have taken the next step this season with his win at Doral and his consistent top 10 finishes. He has only missed 4 cuts since beginning to play the majors in '07 and a high draw is always a good ball flight for US Open courses.
Kuchar has finished T25, T6, T27, T10, T27 in his last five major starts and is coming off a second place finish at the Memorial two weeks ago. There is a lot of value in all of his numbers going into this week.
Former major winner: McDowell: The reigning champ was the best player on the planet from last year's Open to the end of the season. He has had some up and downs to his season this year, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see him contend this week.
Side note: Mahan has had some tough finishes, losing the '02 Amateur to Barnes and losing the deciding singles match in last year's Ryder Cup, but he has also finished T16 in all of the majors and married a Dallas Cowboy cheerleader. A major title seems to be on the horizon for a player with 7 T10's so far this season.
D. Johnson (22/1) Stricker (22/1) Kaymer (20/1) McIlroy (16/1) Mickelson (12/1) Donald (12/1) Westwood (10/1)
All seven of these players are quality plays and the value of each is what makes this tournament so unique with even the favorite paying out at 10/1.
DJ: Looking for redemption after last year's final round fold up and final hole screw-up at the PGA. For his career he has made 9 of 10 cuts at the majors and has finished T48, T40, and 8th in his 3 US Open starts. Having longtime Couples caddie Joe LaCava on his bag should help with his composure, strategy and any rules issues. His finishes this year like his personality have been all over the map, but it isn't a reach to see him contend and playing with Mickelson and McIlroy should benefit him early.
Stricker: He has a little Tom Lehman in'97 going for him this year. He has been rock solid and comes in hot after a win at the Memorial, but with the depth of quality young players it is increasingly hard to get a major, especially your first at age 44.
Kaymer: A forgettable ball-strikers course seems like a place last year's PGA champ would flourish and he seems to always be rounding into shape at the majors. If you knew nothing about their backgrounds, but watched Dirk and Kaymer compete in their respective sports it wouldn't take you too long to realize they are from the same country by the way the robotically compete at a high level. I am the only person who gets more impressed with the Allied effort in WWII after watching them compete?
McIlroy: The most interesting player in the field this week after his final round at Augusta, in only 10 career major starts he has a T15 in each major leaving little question about how his game translates to the big stage. The question will be if you believe he can mentally rebound from his recent Sunday struggles, 16/1 seems like enough value to find out. Playing with D. Johnson and Mickelson the first two rounds won't give him an opportunity to come in under the radar.
Mickelson: You have to wonder how many more opportunities Mickelson will have to win a US Open; he is 40 years old and has 5 second place finishes and 2 fourth place finishes. His near misses are vividly remembered and you have to think he knows that in this wide open field this week might be one of his last chances. The group with Johnson and McIlroy should help him as well, but I can't say I trust him enough in this event.
Donald: His play this year has been great; he is #1 in the world and leads both the PGA and Euro money lists. He won two feature tourney's, the WGC Match Play and the BMW at Wentworth this season and you can pretty much guarantee that he will get a top ten this week, but a win would make his year historic and without question give him the title of best golfer in the world. 12/1 is great value for someone who has been so good and it will be interesting to see if he can continue his great year during a major week, as Novak Djokovic can attest to there is something different about major weeks.
Westwood: Also a guy who can tell you how different the major weeks are, he has more than enough game to succeed, but hasn't been a guy who can be trusted in contention on Sunday. Like Donald it is safe to say he probably will contend, but the 10/1 odds as the outright favorite tell you that being this year's pre-tourney favorite is grading on the curve. The question is if he is in contention on the back nine on Sunday would you want him over any off the other favorites, if so this is great value.
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