A Game 4 suggestion for the Mavs

The Finals through 3 games has been nothing if not close, each game has been decided by a razor thin margin with 2 games coming down to the last shot.  Miami could easily be leading the series 3-0 and Dallas could be holding a 2-1 edge if a loose ball or two went the other way.  A couple of constants have been the suffocating Heat defense which has held the Mavs to 37.3% shooting in the series, Dirk's ability to hold the Mavs in games while being out-manned by the Heat's Big 3, and the disappearance of the Mavs offensive specialists.

Jason Kidd (8-23), Jason Terry (13-34), and JJ Barea (5-23) have all struggled shooting the ball against the athletic and aggressive Heat defense, but all three are major cogs in the Mavs attack and you are going to win or lose with these three.  Jason Kidd contributes in other ways by playing underrated defense on multiple positions, running the offense, and getting the ball to Dirk where he is most comfortable.  Terry is the Mavs' second best offensive player; even coming off the bench he is vital to the team's success in the fourth quarter as evidenced by his good play in Game 2 and his no-shows in the 4^th quarters in games 1 and 3.  He has never been asked to score consistently against a defender like Lebron, but he is a ride or die guy for Carlisle and the Mavs.  JJ Barea has been a revelation this postseason; he backed up a solid performance vs. Portland in the first round with a breakout demolition of the Lakers by using his speed to get to the paint whenever he wanted.  He has been the back-up energy point guard the Mavs have needed with Kidd as the starter and the Mavs are forced to live with his deficiencies at this point.

If there is a move Rick Carlisle can make that will potentially change the series for the Mavs it is to bury Peja Stojakovic on the bench and give his limited minutes to Corey Brewer.  Dirk has played all but 20 minutes through the first 3 games of the series and the Mavs are a Sedin twins like -31 in those 20 minutes with Stojakovic on the court.  Peja has only played 26 minutes in the three games, but has been part of the 4 worst Mavs' lineups in terms of (+/-) during that time.  His defensive shortcomings make him an immediate target for the Heat and his inability to add anything offensively (1-5 FGA, 0-4 3 pt. FGA) should earn the 33 year old a permanent place next to Brain Cardinal on the Mavs bench.  In Corey Brewer the Mavs have an athletic defender and energy guy to match up with Heat wing players.  The knock on Corey Brewer is his lack of an offensive game, but in a series where every Mavs perimeter player outside of Dirk is shooting around 20% what is the harm in playing Brewer?  According to every defensive measurement he is above average which should at least stem the tide of the team (+/-) while Dirk rests.  If any team knows the importance of how good players can be without being volume shooters the Mavs should be that team with the difference Tyson Chandler has made this season and with 82games.com founder Roland Beech on the team's bench as a consultant.

The Mavs biggest advantage over the Heat entering this series was on the bench with Rick Carlisle and this is his chance to shape Game 4 and the series as a whole.  Unlike Kidd, Terry, and to a lesser extent Barea, Stojakovic can not only be replaced, but his spot and minutes can be upgraded by giving Brewer his minutes.  The play of the 4 stars, the Heat defense, and the shooting of the offensive specialists for the Mavs will be the primary focus of game 4, but a determining under the radar factor will be the Mavs lineups when Dirk rests and more specifically the Peja vs. Brewer determination Rick Carlisle needs to make.