Wednesday, June 29, 2011
We Will Know Today
Today we will find out if Jaromir Jagr, and his 1,599 career NHL points, will resume havoc on the prostitutes of Pittsburgh. It has been over 10 years since the most famous mullet on skates left the Steel City for the greener (in this case green as in money) pastures of Washington D.C. Losing the NHLs best player for what turned out to be one of the worst trades in the history of society, left the Pens scrambling for the next 5 seasons. Luckily those scrambling years were parlayed into Marc-Andre Fleury, Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang, and Jordan Staal.
Maybe all along Jagr and Lemieux had this grand plan:
Let Jagr leave for Washington
Pens stink for years
Pens load up in the draft with multiple superstars
Lemieux saves hockey in Pittsburgh
Pens win the Cup
Jagr leaves for Russia to make the big bucks
Pittsburgh builds a casino
Jagr comes full circle at a chance to win another Cup
Probably not the case, but it will be awesome if he agrees to Ray Shero's one-year, $2 million offer. The only thing I'm scared about is that one-year thing. I know Shero is doing what is best for the organization, you don't want to get stuck with another Alex Kovalev and then have to pay him next year too. But, does Jagr take that as an insult? Does Detroit or Montreal offer him two-years with a third-year option? Only Double J knows. But all signs point towards a return. From what everyone is saying it is not about the money, it seems to be more out of respect and loyalty to an organization and an owner that gave him NHL life. Obviously Jagr, the fifth pick in the 1990 draft, would have been drafted by some team but in Pittsburgh he became a star and won Cups in his first two seasons.
Bylsma wants him, Lemieux wants him, and anyone who was conceivably ill following the 3-1 series collapse to the Lightning and know the importance of scoring goals want Jagr to come back.
What can it hurt. Maybe he will be great, maybe he will stink, odds are he will be somewhere in the middle, but no doubt the guy still can score the puck. He scored a Hat Trick against the US in the Worlds this Summer. Those are NHLers that he scored on. He won't have the speed he used to, but he is world-class and will be able to handle the passes that Sid and Geno dish out. He will be able to visualize plays before they happen, and he will be able to contribute more to the Power Play than we can imagine. If he's a bust, then he's a bust. But if he's great, then so too will be the Penguins.
So far so good for Shero. He's locked up two vital pieces to our #1 ranked Penalty Kill in cap friendly deals with Craig Adams and Pascal Dupuis. Both could have potentially made more money on the open market, but both openly stated that they wanted to stay in Pittsburgh. Great city, great fans, awesome players, a player-friendly coach, and a legend as an owner. Why would they leave. They have a chance to win the Cup year-in-and-year out.
Looks like even with the $2M looming in the Jagr deal, with the surprising hike in the salary cap the Pens will still be able to offer Tyler Kennedy and even Mike Rupp money close to the numbers they were seeking. Starting off by not over paying for Adams and Dupuis leaves a lot of wiggle room to sign those two and take a run and Jagr. If Rupp doesn't work out then it looks like they might turn to Arron Asham in hopes they can convince him to return. I guess when you seal up your D-men and goalies for years to come, you can spend a whole offseason focusing on forwards. Kinda nice.
Let's say that all works out and the Pens sign Jagr, Kennedy, and Rupp. Think of the possible lines:
Kunitz - Crosby - Neal
Kennedy - Malkin - Jagr
Dupuis - Staal - Cooke
Rupp - Adams - Jeffrey/Letestu
Wow
Let's Go Pens
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
NHL draft day trades
Even in a year without a Crosby, Ovechkin, or a Hall/Seguin debate the NHL draft (speaking of which I like the Oilers Nugent-Hopkins pick, even though he might not fill an immediate need, the Oilers need assets even if they are a few years away) was able to steal some headlines thanks to a couple of GM's that made some major changes to their contending teams by moving stars. NHL GM's are the most aggressive in the business as evidenced by the record amount of deadline deals every year and the hardest cap in pro sports. The tradition of ground breaking NHL trades is nothing new as this is the league that traded the Great One in his prime and though none of this year's trades come close to that deal NHL GM's seem like they could just as easily be in your fantasy league as opposed to running a professional sports team.
Philadelphia trades Jeff Carter to Columbus for Jake Voracek and 8th overall pick (C, Sean Couturier) and a 3rd round pick.
Philadelphia then trades Mike Richards to Los Angeles for #1 overall prospect Brayden Scheen, Wayne Simmonds and a 2nd round pick.
Philadelphia then signs Ilya Bryzagalov to a 9 year 51 million dollar contract.
In one day the Flyers changed the entire dynamic of their team from a deep and balanced offensive team to one that is going to rely on a veteran defensive core and a top notch goaltender. After years of trying to get by with guys off the scrap heap in net the Flyers signed the top free agent goaltender and in the process traded their captain and co-leading scorers while getting considerably younger up front. After years of trading away their top draft choices the Flyers brought in the #1 prospect in hockey in Scheen and went from not drafting until late in the 3rd round to selecting 8th overall and again in the 2nd round. Moving the team to Chester County and changing their colors to blue were perhaps the only moves that could have been more significant for this team. Richards and Carter had their moments with the press and the fans, but they were bigger factors in the team's division winning regular season then they were at fault for the team's postseason shortcomings (one season removed from a Stanley Cup finals appearance) and while James Van Riemsdyk and Claude Giroux were productive secondary scorers they will face more pressure on and off the ice next season to carry the load offensively. I think the Flyers will take a hit in the regular season and they will be relying on two elder statesmen on long term contracts in Pronger and Bryzaglov to carry the load in the postseason, and that is where the Flyers experiment and GM Paul Holmgren's moves will be judged. If you are Flyers fan you hope the new look will make a Thomas/Chara like run, if you aren't or you are a Carter/Richards fan you are hoping that the Bruins were the exception to the post lockout rule of average Stanley Cup winning goaltending.
The breakdown for Columbus is the easiest of the 3 teams involved in these moves, they have been looking for a viable center to pair with Rick Nash since he was drafted first overall in 2002 and a decade later they finally have one. Carter is in the second year of a 10 year deal and will pair with Nash on one of the most explosive lines in hockey. Giving up Restricted Free Agent Jacob Voracek and the 8th overall pick is as good as could be expected for Columbus. This move isn't going to bump them into contention in the West, but it is a good start and with league wide realignment coming next season Columbus could be a major winner with a likely move to the East.
LA gave up the #1 overall prospect in Brayden Scheen and gritty Wayne Simmonds, but in return they get one of the best two way centers in the game to combine with Anze Kopitar and add some much needed offense to Kings attack. The Kings own one of the deepest farm systems in the game and have been waiting to make a major move for the last couple of seasons and this is the best move they could have hoped for. Richards' game has never been questioned and will fit into the Kings core group of Kopitar, Brown, Penner, Doughty, and Johnson seamlessly and moves the Kings from Western conference playoff team to Stanley Cup contender. At 26, Richards is 3 years into a cap friendly 12 year contract and even the biggest Brayden Scheen supporters would admit a Mike Richards career would be more than optimistic.
San Jose trades Devin Setoguchi, last year's #1 pick (C Charlie Coyle) and the 28th overall pick (C Zack Phillips) to Minnesota for Brent Burns and a 2012 2nd round pick.
This trade got lost in the Philly overhaul, but anytime a 24 year old with a 30 goal season under his belt and a potential franchise defenseman are moved it is significant. San Jose was desperate to add a difference maker on the back end after their Western conference finals loss to Vancouver and Minnesota used that desperation to land three young offensively talented forwards. Burns' offensive (17 G, 29A) production is rare amongst defensemen and he has displayed an all around game that shows flashes off a poor man's Shea Weber. He has been a minus player the last two seasons which can't be ignored, but could be explained by playing in Minnesota. Burns is also an Unrestricted Free Agent after this season, so either good play will land him big money and a future in San Jose or the Sharks will have gone for the fences and struck out.
No team in the NHL needs offense more than Minnesota and they used their best trade chip to land three young forwards. Setoguchi is only 24 years old and in three seasons in the NHL has scored above 20 goals twice and 30 once. He is signed long term and will be a building block for the Wild, in Coyle and Phillips the Wild also obtained offensive upside and like young pitching in the majors you can never have too many young forwards developing in the NHL. Overall replacing Burns' production on the back end will be easier than developing 3 NHL ready forwards.
Chicago trades Brian Campbell to Florida for Rostislav Olesz
I guess if Gilbert Arenas and Vernon Wells' contracts can be moved I shouldn't be surprised that Brian Campbell's can as well. Campbell is in the third year of an 8 year contract that pays him 7.142 million/year (3rd highest on Chicago roster) and this contract was the main reason the Hawks had to have a fire sale after winning the Cup last season. In Olesz the Hawks get back a young winger with 3 years and 9.325 million left on his contract. This is a major coup for Chicago to unload Campbell without having to send him to the minors and taking back such a generous contract. By also trading Troy Brouwer to Washington for the Caps' first round pick (26th overall) the Hawks were able to shed more salary and take back a young inexpensive player. GM Stan Bowman is living up to the family name by remaking the Hawks on the fly after being in salary cap jail and no salary dump in the NHL is more impressive than Campbell to Florida.
This move for Florida makes as much sense as the city of Miami buying snow plows and salt. We have discussed Campbell's NHL worst contract and his play on the ice hasn't been much better. He wasn't playing top 4 minutes in Chicago and has never been known for his work in his own end. The Panthers seemed in the midst of a much needed total youth overhaul after trading Bryan McCabe and making little effort to sign UFA Tomas Vokoun, adding a 32 year old overpaid power play specialist is about as smart as Bettman putting an expansion team in Miami. This move clearly shows the difference between these two NHL organizations. Maybe in a couple of years when the Panthers move to Toronto this move will be just a bad dream.
Calgary trades Robin Regher and Ales Kotalik to Buffalo for Chris Butler and Paul Byran
Calgary needed to dump salary to get under the cap and with a new owner in Buffalo the Sabres were able to take advantage and add one of the NHL's most underrated defenseman. Bigger names have overshadowed Regher (Phaneuf and Bouwmeester) during his time in Calgary, but his play on the ice made him Calgary's best. Calgary was able to re-sign Alex Tanguay (5 yrs/17.5 million) after unloading Regher and getting under the cap, but anytime you are forced to give up one of your best for cap space you are the clear loser in the deal.
Buffalo's biggest weakness last year was their lack of depth on the back end and slotting Regher into the top pairing with Tyler Myers will allow everyone to drop down a spot to where they are comfortable. The Sabres were a period away from upsetting the Flyers in the first round last season, but were unable to hold the lead, that shouldn't be a problem with Regher logging major minutes next season. With Ryan Miller in net and a young core of forwards the ability to take on Regher is an underrated move that could pay big dividends next spring.
Thursday, June 23, 2011
NBA Draft
1. Cavaliers: Kyrie Irving (PG Duke): The consensus #1 even though he only played 11 games in college, where else other than the NBA is 11 games enough to make you a franchise cornerstone. Hopefully for the Cavs he has more Chris Paul in his game than Mo Williams, but most likely he is somewhere in the middle. He isn't as athletic as Rose or Wall, but he is a better shooter. Wouldn't it have been fun to see the Cavs select Williams and force the Wolves to take another PG in Irving?
2. Wolves: Derrick Williams (PF Arizona): The Cavs bailed out Minny by selecting Irving and making this a no brainer pick. If this is a two player draft at least the Wolves got the second player, but they now have a monopoly on left handed forwards. At least Williams is more sound of mind than Beasley or Anthony Randolph. The Wolves continue to stockpile young assets and can't seem to move any for a proven veteran player.
3. Jazz: Enes Kanter (C Turkey): If you have seen this guy play in an actual basketball game you probably saw Wilt score 100 as well. He has size (6'11", 275 llbs) and potential, but got the backhanded of all compliments when he was compared to Darko in his pre-draft workouts. So now the Jazz have two Turkish centers to combine with Jefferson and Millsap in the post as every other big man in the West salivates.
4. Cavs: Tristan Thompson (PF Texas): Shot up draft boards in the last week as John Hollinger's draft by the numbers had him as the fourth best player. So the Cavs used their 2 top 4 picks on Irving and Thompson, for their sake I hope Irving is a star.
5. Raptors: Jonas Valanciunas (C Lithuania): Brian Colangelo is really testing the definition of insanity as he continues to draft European big men with the hopes that one will eventually defend and rebound. His numbers are good, 19 years old, 6'11 with a 7'6" wingspan, but he will be in Europe for at least another year and won't be in Toronto until 2013, at which time Colangelo will be lucky to be there.
6. Wizards: Jan Vesely (SF Czech Republic): An atypical European big man, he is highly athletic and is better running the floor and rolling to the basket than shooting. Great running mate for John Wall, Javale McGee, and Jordan Crawford as the Wiz are getting a little frisky and should be exciting. Now if only their basketball IQ catches up to their athleticism.
7. Kings: Bismack Biyombo (PF Spain): The Kings traded this pick to the Charlotte in a 3 team trade with the Bucks for Jimmer Fredette and also traded Beno Udrih for Salmons. So the Kings traded down three spots in the draft for Jimmer and then traded Udrih for John Salmons who is older, makes more money, and plays the same position as Tyreke Evans, no wonder why this team is bankrupt. At least Jimmer can sell tickets and he won't be forced to defend on this squad and will have plenty of stories playing with Cousins and Evans.
8. Pistons: Brandon Knight (PG Kentucky): My biggest surprise of the draft was seeing Knight slip to #8 without a team trading up to select him. More of a scorer who is going to have to learn how to play the point in the NBA, but he has one of the highest ceilings in this draft. The Pistons have plenty of guards, but Dumars must have realized that Knight's value was too high to pass on and I agree.
9. Bobcats: Kemba Walker (PG UConn): What a difference a GM makes, as recently hired Rick Cho is finally doing what the Bobcats could never do before under Jordan, rebuild through the draft. The Bobcats get an offensive dynamo in Walker and a defensive stopper in Biyombo and unload Captain Jack and Shaun Livingston to the Bucks while only having to take back Corey Maggette. Walker was a volume shooter in college, but has shown the ability to rebound and pass and now will play next to DJ Augustin. Biyombo will have to be as good as advertised on defense behind those two small guards.
10. Bucks: Jimmer Fredette (PG BYU): The Bucks tried to undo some past wrongs in this draft by trading Jimmer to Sacramento along with John Salmons to Sacramento and Maggette to Charlotte for Captain Jack, Shaun Livingston and Beno Udrih. The Bucks feel they are closer to contending than re-building and if Captain Jack comes to Milwaukee with the right attitude he could be a major addition. Jimmer playing for Scott Skiles made about as much sense as Paris Hilton working for Apple.
11. Warriors: Klay Thompson (SG Washington State): The Warriors held onto Monte Ellis so they went with a jump shooter in Thompson. I heard the "ability to defend" multiple times when he was selected so I guess that is new coach Mark Jackson's first assignment.
12. Jazz: Alec Burks (SG Colorado): I like Burks and think he is the best SG in this draft with the ability to be a good defender while scoring efficiently, but after trading Derron Williams and two picks in the top 12 the Jazz have Kanter and Burks and no PG (Knight or Jimmer). I guess the Jazz are the one team that believes in Devin Harris.
13. Suns: Markieff Morris (PF Kansas): The Suns were one of the most talked about teams this week, it seemed like they were close to moving Nash or at least Gortat for the second pick. Instead they get a stretch the floor PF in Morris to do the exact same thing Channing Frye does for them. At least Phoenix fans get one more year of Nash before the Aaron Brooks era begins.
14. Rockets: Marcus Morris (PF Houston): Who scripted these back to back picks, the USGA? The Rockets get the Morris brother who plays in the post and actually fills a need for the Rockets as a PF who can score in the blocks.
15. Pacers: Kawhi Leonard (SF SDSU): My love for this pick was validated when he was traded to the Spurs for George Hill. He could have easily gone ten picks higher and will fit in perfectly in San Antonio as a defender, rebounder, and athletic front line player. Meanwhile the Pacers traded what looked like a lockdown combo of wing guys in Leonard/Paul George for a spot up shooter in Hill.
16. 76ers: Nikola Vucevic (C USC): I was surprised to see an actual true center still on the board after the lottery. He will fit in nicely with the 76ers next to Elton Brand and lessens the need to trade Iguodala for size and will improve as much for anyone in the draft playing for Doug Collins.
17. Knicks: Iman Shumpert (SG GTech): The potential of being a 6'5" athletic lockdown combo guard is enough to warrant this Knicks selection and hopefully will end the Knicks reliance on Billups or Douglas as the guy trying to defend the other teams best guard in crunch time.
18. Wizards: Chris Singleton (SG FSU): It doesn't seem right to type this, but this is another Wizards pick that I really like. Like Shumpert, Singleton is a lock down athletic defender, but Singleton has more upside as an offensive player and has a fairly high basketball IQ. Playing with John Wall should help Singleton get easy points and hopefully for the Wiz his defense rubs off on his teammates.
19. Bucks: Tobias Harris (SF Tenn): The one rookie draft piece that goes to Milwaukee in the facelift they performed on draft night. He won't be counted on much if Jackson is healthy, which is probably best for any rookie that is starting his career with Scott Skiles. Is there any bigger difference possible than going from Bruce Pearl to Skiles?
20. Wolves: Donatas Motiejunas (F Lithunia): The Wolves traded this pick and PG Johnny Flynn to Houston for the 23rd pick (Nikola Mirotic) and Brad Miller. In Mirotic, the Wolves get one of the best prospects in Europe who will not come to the NBA for at least 3 or 4 years and they are also able to clear the PG logjam by trading Flynn. Think they would like a mulligan on that Flynn trade since they are essential trading him for Brad Miller?
21. Blazers: Nolan Smith (SG Duke): A combo guard who can score was a priority for the Blazers and Smith is an excellent fit. As a 4 year college player he is a veteran who will fit in well in Portland and can take some of pressure of Brandon Roy to score points. The Blazers Andre Miller for Raymond Felton draft night trade will also help the Blazers get more easy points as Felton pushes the pace. As every tourist says after their first night, this was a good night in Portland.
22. Nuggetts: Kenneth Faried (PF Morehead St): He rebounds better than anyone does anything in this draft and is a steal for Denver. He won't start, but will earn major minutes for George Karl. In a weak draft a surity like Faried's rebounding is hard to find in the 20's.
23. Rockets: Nikola Mirotic (F Montenegro): The Rockets traded this pick and Brad Miller to Minnesota for Motiejunas and Johnny Flynn. Motiejunas has a Barganani like game and that is intriguing at 23 as oppossed to the #1 overall pick. Johnny Flynn could not have been in a worse situation than he was in Minnesota. Houston is buying low on a guy who was drafted in the top 5 on a couple years ago. Unlike the Thabeet trade, this is a good trade for the Rockets.
24. Thunder: Reggie Jackson (G BC): The most predictable pick in the draft as the Thunder gave Jackson an assurance they would select him last month. He didn't work out prior to the draft, but is a combo guard who can create his own shot and couple with Hardon as a nice change of pace backcourt.
25. Celtics: Marshon Brooks (G Providence): The second of two straight Northeast scoring guards, Boston traded this pick to New Jersey where Brooks has a chance to earn significant playing time next to D. Williams in a wide open backcourt for the Nets.
26. Mavericks: Jordan Hamiliton (F Texas): The Mavs traded this pick to Portland for Rudy Hernandez, while Hamilton becomes the second of 3 first round picks from Texas which begs to obvious question, "Why isn't Texas better".
27. Nets: JaJuan Johnson (PF Purdue): The Nets traded this pick to Boston and in Johnson the Celtics get a solid big man who has a chance to contibute to a veteran title contender. Johnson showed the ability to defend this year at Purdue along with a reliable jump shot and goes to an ideal situation.
28. Bulls: Norris Cole (G Cleveland State): Traded this pick to Minnesota, since after the Wolves traded Flynn they wanted to make sure they got a fourth PG back. Will most likely be moved again in the next day or two. A jack of all trades point guard who can get his own shot and rebounds at a high level.
29. Spurs: Corey Joseph (G Texas): Rick Barnes' squad had more first round draft picks (3) than tourney wins (1) this year and for all the talk about the Spurs trading Tony Parker they end up keeping Parker, trading George Hill, and drafting Parker's understudy in Joseph.
30. Bulls: Jimmy Butler (SF Marquette): The Bulls add another rugged defender in Butler and a guy who will do whatever it takes to succeed as his backstory suggests. He isn't the offensive minded SG the Bulls need to take the next step, but he is a perfect young guy to add to the mix with the last pick in the first round of a weak draft.
Monday, June 20, 2011
What We Have All Been Waiting For
There will be 14-same gender (well kinda) teams taking on the missions. Following the missions, the the losing team and a voted-in team will enter an elimination that will take place in "The Jungle."
What I want to do now is rank the 14 teams in the order in which I feel they have a chance of taking home the cash.
1. Wes and Kenny - Their dislike for each other stems from the love triangle that surrounded now-commercial actress Johanna. It is t is no secret that these two don't really regard the other very highly, but they have done multiple shows and promotions together, and because of their past successes on this show, have to put them as the favorite.
2. CT and Adam - Any time CT is on the show you know is television gold. We remember the last time he was on the show and transformered Johnny Bananas as a guest star. However, the last time he was an actual cast member, after he got finished fooling around with Shauvon on the roof, that in itself is awesome, he got booted for punching his Paris roommate Adam. I bet CT forgets he had beef with Adam, he doesn't seem like he is smart enough to remember 3 years ago, but I doubt Adam forgets. With all that said, CT is a beast, and Adam is extremely athletic despite his lack of size. As long as CT remains on the show, it will be tough to beat this combo.
3. Evan and Nehemiah - These two really haven't had any issues in the past. I guess there was Evan being called out by Nehemiah in The Duel II, but other than that there shouldn't be a problem with comraderie. As long as Beth isn't in Costa Rica, then I guess Nehemiah will be focused enough to compete.
4. Johnny and Tyler - These two former roommates in Key West don't get along. It all started when Tyler called out Johnny for the first ever Duel. They bash each other in confessionals but generally ignore each other on camera. Both have won previous challenges, and Tyler is a strong competitor, but Johnny has been known to be softer than Chris Bosh in a big game situation.
5. Brandon and Ty - Brandon had a tough go on the last challenge with his team sacrificing him week after week. He soon became a favorite of T.J. which is always a good thing, because as we know T.J. loves competitors. His partner, no so much. Ty, who looks athletic and talks a good game, basically quit during his stint on Cutthroat. We will see how these two get along, but they are dark horses.
6. Adam R. and Leroy - Roy Lee could be a force, but obviously, this being his first challenge he is very unproven. But as he proved in Vegas he won't sit around and let foolishness in the house get in his way. His teammate Adam just seems like a punk kid. He doesn't seem to be athletic which is a necessity in these challenges. He will fit in in terms of drinking and may give some of the vets a run for their money in getting the drunkest, but I see him walking in like he owns the place and rubbing past challengers the wrong way. I see CT shutting him up early.
7. Evelyn and Paula - Our first female team. We know that Evelyn is a tough competitor, but like the Sedin's tends to fade when it means the most. I.e. blaming Luke during her last challenge. Paula seems to always be in contention, but that probably has to do with her alliances with the alpha dogs. However she seems to have done better in the most recent seasons.
8. Davis and Tyree - Tyree is the biggest player on the show, but as we know from recent seasons, biggest isn't always best. The show, and especially the finale had incorporated a lot of cardio, maybe not Ty's strong point. Davis called him the "N" word on their Denver season, so we will see if that still is an issue.
9. Laurel and Cara Maria - As we saw on Cutthroat, Laurel didn't think much of Cara Maria's competitive nature, but in the end it was Laurel, not Cara Maria who couldn't finish the finale. Both are athletic, but as we know with girls they change allegiences everyday. So one day these two will get along, but at the first sight of failure, the animosity will grow.
10.Camila and Theresa - On Cutthroat Theresa accused Camila of stealing Ty's sweatpants and Jenn's hat. Maybe she did, maybe she didn't, who cares. Much like Brandon, Camila was abused by her teammates, and that might have just made her a tougher competitor. I'm still not sold on Theresa, who in her mind, thinks shes a superstar. We'll see if this duo can steal a few wins.
11. Aneesa and Robin - The all AARP team. If they don't break their hips this season I will be surprised.
12. Jenn and Mandi - The team most likely to hookup with each other.
13. Katelynn and Sarah - I can't believe they let Katelynn on the show. Did they see her last time she was on. Ask Brandon I'm sure he remembers. Sarah will be jealous of Laurel, who could be candidates for this season's inter-team lesbian hookup.
14. Jasmine and Jonna - Who?
I can't wait, it is going to be an awesome show.
Let's look at some athletes who could be candidates for this show.
Shaq and Kobe
Matt Cooke and Marc Savard
Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent
Pedro Martinez and Don Zimmer
Kyle Busch and Richard Childress
Zo's leg and Jeff Van Gundy
Tiger and Phil
TO and Donovan McNabb
Tim Thomas and anyone in front of him in the buffet line
Tony Parker and Brent Barry
M.I.A. US Golfers
Rory McIlroy's record breaking US Open victory yesterday in our nation's capital was the 5th straight major won by a non American golfer, the last two winners of our nation's golf championship are both from the Northern Ireland (population 1.8 million); by comparison the metro Baltimore area has a population of 2.5 million. The world rankings tell the same story as the recent major count and unlike last season the new wave of young American golfers seem to be regressing. For years American golf was carried by Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, but with both of their contending futures in serious doubt is American golf headed for a Chicago Cub like drought?
During the final round of The Masters this year as 8 different players contended for the Green Jacket, the only Americans outside of Woods to finish in the top 10 were 36 year old Bo Van Pelt (1 PGA tour victory) and 34 year old Ryan Palmer (3 PGA victories all from November to January) and neither threatened to actually win. Yesterday at Congressional the top 10 contained two Americans, 33 year old Robert Garrigus (1 PGA victory) and 24 year old PGA tour rookie Kevin Chappell. Chappell looks to have a bright future, but all four are strangers to anyone who doesn't routinely watch the "Morning Drive" on the Golf Channel. This is a far cry from last season when it seemed like a young American was contending in every major and in a few cases only a late round shot or decision was keeping them from victory. It feels as if the new generation of Euro's are comfortable contending and winning while the American's are as fragile in winning time as Lebron, a Sedin twin, or Luongo. In an individual sport with no teammates to hold you accountable are the young American's just too comfortable cashing checks and living the lifestyle while the Euro's are driven to win, or are the Euro's just better players? The worldwide resumes of the players would suggest that Watson, Kuchar, Watney, Kim, DJ, Overton, Mahan, O'Hair, and Fowler have the games to compete with the likes of McDowell, Oosthuizen, Kaymer, Schwartzel, McIlroy, but the head to head results indicate that it will be easier to get Michael Richards an acting job before the US wins the Ryder Cup.
Bubba Watson has won twice this season after losing in a playoff to Kaymer at last year's PGA Championship. He has come into both majors in good form looking like America's best hope and has finished T38 and T63, while the conversation has been about his clothing choices and not his game. Matt Kuchar is the most liked guy on tour and looks like the neighbor everyone wishes they had, he is a weekly ATM, but his only notable win on tour was in last year's Finchem fake playoffs and he has faded from contention on Sunday in his last 3 majors. Nick Watney and Hunter Mahan have both won WGC golf events in the last 12 months and contended in majors last season, they were popular picks in both majors this season and have a combined 3 MC's and a 46th place finish. Jeff Overton and last year's PGA Rookie of the Year Rickie Fowler have never won on tour, but were some of the USA's best in the Ryder Cup and both seemed poised to use that experience as a springboard, instead a T38 and T44 are their best major finishes. For my money the two most troubling no-shows this season have been Anthony Kim and Dustin Johnson. Kim shoot a final round 66 last year at Augusta to finish 3rd and looked on his way to multiple majors, he was the star of the last US winning Ryder Cup team before missing the end of last season with a wrist injury. His return this year has been rocky to say the least with only one top 10 and looks headed for a Mark Prior type career arc. At least he has an injury to help explain his poor play an excuse Dustin Johnson doesn't have. Johnson has all the talent in the world and contended in both last year's US Open and PGA Championship, but while McIlory used his major disappointments to improve they seem knocked Johnson down a few pegs. His fragile mental game on the course and his off the course issues have combined to leave him outside of the top 20 in consecutive majors for the first time in his career. In all honesty he has looked more like Vince Carter than a player you can count on when the result is in doubt.
Each player discussed in the previous paragraph has their own issues, but as a group they have underperformed in recent major Championships. American golf fans want to see American's contend especially young players who look to have staying power. Hopefully hearing the gallery chant "Rory" yesterday in their home country drives this group to improve and return the favor in next month's British Open, but as every major comes and goes with a non-American winner the drought takes on a life of its own. Golf could be on the verge of a golden era where multiple young players from around the world for major Championships as opposed to watching a tournament for one or two players, but without a few American contenders the game seems headed for a tennis like niche where the Golf Channel handles the tourney's before noon in this country.
Thursday, June 16, 2011
Player Profile: DeShawn Stevenson
Before this season, Stevenson was more known for his tattoos, which we will get to in a minute, than his game, but he did contribute to the Mavs run to the title. In the finals he averaged 7 points in only 17 minutes per game. Stevenson also hit 13 of 23 three's and played tough defense on LeBron and Wade. He becomes a free agent this summer and could make some money if he wasn't an idiot.
Before declaring for the draft straight out of high school, Stevenson committed to Kansas after averaging 30.4 points, 9.7 boards, and 6.2 assists his senior season. This led then-Kansas head coach Roy Williams to say Stevenson was his most gifted recruit ever. That is saying a lot for a coach that was able to coach Jeff Boschee.
He was all set to go to Kansas until the SAT "red flagged his scores." As a sophomore he took the test and scored a 450 and then raised his score to an 1150 as a senior, instead of explaining how he improved so mightily, he re-took the test and scored a 650. He definately got the tougher version the second time around.
Now on to the NBA where all the fun starts:
He was picked 23rd overall in the 2000 draft by the Jazz. As a 19-year-old rookie, he finished second in the All-Star Dunk contest and pleaded no contest to having sex with a 14-year-old girl. R. Kelly would be proud.
He was then traded to Orlando for the superstar that is Gordon Giricek. He lasted only 2.5 seasons in Disney averaging a respectable 11 points, 2 rebounds, and 2 assists. In August of 2007 a man was shot and injured at Stevenson's Orlando home after an argument with women that were brought home from Destiny Nighclub.
Here is a description of Destiny Nightclub from their website:
Destiny Nightclub - So it’s midnight. You’re still feeling it. You’re still buzzed. Why go home? You don’t have to. Destiny Nightclub, located at 7430 Universal Blvd, is open well after normal closing-time, so you can keep the vibe going until it’s scandalously past your bedtime.
So Stevenson takes his talent from the club scene in Orlando to the museums and politico of Washington, D.C. for the league minimum. I guess you can't be having sex with middle schoolers and clubbing all night with classy women looking to keep the vibe going until it's scandalously past their bedtime. The black Jayson Williams would be proud.
His career went pretty well in Washington and he was even able to sign a 4-year $15 million contract. Then coach Eddie Jordan said about Stevenson, "He's a warrior, man, a true warrior. His confidence is growing, he's making threes, he's just a true pro. This is a man's league and he is man. In the dictionary next to that word there is a picture of DeShawn Stevenson." By the 08-09 season he was on the pine to make time for Nick Young and Juan Dixon.
Stevenson was traded to the Dallas Mavericks along with Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood for Josh Howard, Drew Gooden, James Singleton and Quinton Ross, and became the first player in NBA history to wear #92.
Now onto his tattoos:
A backwards Pittsburgh Pirates P on his face
Mike Jones of the Washington Post had this to say about that tattoo:
"On his left cheek bone is inked the Pitsburgh Pirate’s ‘P’, “for the Pittsburgh, that’s my favorite team. Barry Bonds, when he first started.” The thing about the P is, however, that it’s backwards and looks more like a 9. DeShawn tried to explain, “No, if you’re standing where Dom’s standing and looking at me, it looks like a P.” Dominic McGuire was standing directly in front of him about 10 yards away, but it still looked like a 9. I think DeShawn meant to say, “when I look in the mirror it looks like a P.” The final new tat is a crack on the left side of Stevenson’s forehead. He said it’s because “I don’t crack. I feel like people always try to break me, but I don’t crack. So, I put that there.”
Another Bucco fan, gotta love it. Rumor has it that he was thinking of getting a Jeff King mustache tattooed on his upper lip.
He also has a crack on his left temple (Insert crackhead joke here)
Stevenson's explanation: "I don't crack. I feel like people always try to break me, but I don't crack. So, I put that there." Seems reasonable. Very reasonable.
Finally he has Abe Lincoln on his neck. I guess the Gettysburg Address really moved him.
His explanation: "For slavery, ya know? Did away with it." Then asked why there are 5's on each side: "I had to put the 5's on each side because nobody could recognize Abe. They kept asking me who it was?" Makes perfect sense. He is a very unreconizable figure, everyone in Amish country has that beard, and that top hat was definately the flat brimmed New Era hat of the day. Of course Abe Lincoln is best known as the guy on the $5 bill.
Just think how many tattoos he could have gotten if he wasn't given the hard SAT test and signed with Ohio State.
Until next year when someone does something stupid after winning the NBA title.
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
The Wide Open US Open
Now that Mark Cuban has slept with the Larry O'Brien trophy and Dirk is readying for a well deserved vacation, D Wade can add a couple acting lessons to his summer schedule and Lebron holds up in his mansion with his inner circle telling him how great he is and how pathetic the lives of all his doubters are, the sports calendar is wide open. There isn't much left to dissect in the NHL as the Stanley Cup will come down to one game Wednesday night in Vancouver and then the PGA tour will have the sports stage this Father's Day weekend for the US Open. The most grueling test in golf returns to the US Capital City as a revamped Congressional will host. The Open has been at Congressional twice before, first in '64 when Ken Venturi secured his broadcasting future by winning the tournament in the scorching heat after nearly collapsing during the 36 hole finish, and again in '97 when a young Ernie Els got his second Open victory thanks to late round mistakes by Lehman and Monty. The common theme in both years was the oppressive heat and the "at best" forgettable layout making the 15 years between hosting seem like not long enough for this venue. The biggest and much needed change to the course was making the previous par 3 18th the new 10th hole and lengthening the old 17th hole and making it the finishing hole. Even with the changes and re-built greens, Congressional will never be mistaken for Pebble, the Olympic Club, or Oakmont. The heat has always been a major factor at every tournament played at Congressional and should always be considered when viewing odds, so below is the extended forecast.
Thursday: High of 78, 60% chance of T-storms
Friday: High of 81, 40% chance of scattered T-storms
Saturday: High of 86, partly cloudy, 10% chance of T-storms
Sunday: High of 87, sunny, 10% chance of T-storms.
Hopefully, that forecast holds and the weather becomes the second biggest non-story of the weekend behind Tiger Woods. The fact of the matter is Tiger Woods had no chance of winning this tournament if he entered without playing any meaningful golf since the Masters. The only thing that he affects by not playing is the odds for the rest of the field; the public's affection for Tiger is so great that he would be no worse than second or third favorite even if he showed up in a wheel chair. My mistake, the other thing he affects is the TV coverage, without him in the field you might actually get to see live golf shots by people contending instead of a montage of Tiger's entire round every hour on the hour. Below are the odds to win this weekend broken down into tiers with some suggestions for each group and an in-depth look at the favorites.
Pettersson (125/1) Vegas (100/1) Overton (125/1) Stenson (125/1) Villegas (125/1) Van Pelt (125/1) Crane (125/1) Z. Johnson (100/1) T. Clark (100/1) Cink (100/1) Fisher (100/1) Karlsson (100/1) M.A. Jimenez (100/1) Oosthuizen (100/1) Woodland (100/1) E. Molinari (100/1)
Worth a shot: Villegas: He has made five straight cuts at the Open and though he is struggling this season he is coming off his only T10 this season (3rd last week). He is long enough to have short irons in and when putting well has shown he can win on some of the best courses on tour.
Van Pelt: Made the cut in 3 of his 4 Open starts, finishing 40th or better in those three. Dating back to last year's US Open he has finished T40, T44, T28, and 8th in the last four majors, major player on the rise.
Fisher: He has top 20's in every major and showed his US Open chops with a 5th place finish at Bethpage in '09. Not as well known to US fans as the other Euro's, unless you watched him terrorize the US Ryder Cup team. Mild, rainy weather will only help his chances.
Former major winners: Cink: His best US Open finishes are over 5 years ago and nothing he has done recently would suggest that the 38 year old (seems like he should be 48) will contend.
Z. Johnson: His straight driving and short game expertise would make you think he would do well in this event, but in 7 starts he has 4 MC's and a best finish of T48.
Oosthuizen: Last year's British Open run-away winner hasn't made a cut at a major since and his present game looks more like Todd Hamiliton than Ernie Els.
Side note: Robert Karlsson is somehow the #17 ranked player in the world, with his two worldwide wins since '08 coming in January and November of '09 in the Middle East. He also has one T10 finish in a major in the last 3 years (T8 in the '09 PGA). This is the biggest indictment of the World Golf Rankings I have seen in since the women's French Open draw, if Karlsson is 17th I would hate to see who is #18.
Yang (80/1) Immelman (80/1) Moore (80/1) Sabbiatini (80/1) Allenby (80/1) Barnes (80/1) Laird (80/1) B. Haas (80/1) Cabrera (80/1) Quiros (80/1)
Worth a shot: Barnes: Has played in two US Opens as a professional and finished T2 and T27, the US Amateur champ seems to like the USGA setup and majors in general.
Laird: Doesn't have much major experience, but has finished T48 and T20 in last year's PGA and this year's Masters and seems to have a way to find the middle of leaderboards.
Moore: Has made the cut three of 4 starts at the US Open and T33 and T10 are his high finishes.
Former major winners: Yang: Missed the cut in his only US Open start last year, but has played well this season and wouldn't be the first time he contended out of nowhere.
Immelman: US Open course setups are not very forgiven for players coming off hand and wrist injuries.
Cabrera: Contended in the final round of this year's Masters after a Titanic like '10 season, in 11 US Open starts he has made the cut 10 times to go along with his win at Oakmont. I would have set that total at half that amount of cuts made.
Side note: I wanted to make a case for young players on the rise, Haas and Quiros, but Quiros has missed the cut in both US Open starts and Haas hasn't played an Open as a professional. Both have the games and temperaments to contend especially on a non-descript layout like Congressional, but both will need Lucas Glover like weeks.
Fowler (66/1) Goosen (66/1) F. Molinari (66/1) Snedeker (66/1) Baddeley (66/1) Glover (60/1)
Worth a shot: Snedeker: Made the cut in 3 of his 4 US Open starts with finishes of T8, T9, and T23. Currently playing very well with 6 top ten's this season included a win at Hilton Head.
F. Molinari: The birth of his first child this year has cut into his playing schedule, but he has the game to compete on hard golf courses and in two US Open starts he has one T25 finish. Doesn't he seem like the non-descript under the radar Euro who could win America's Open?
Former major winners: Goosen: His T3 last week in Memphis was his first top ten of the season, but the former two time champ has 4 T15's to go along with his 2 US Open wins and will be a trendy veteran selection.
Glover: The example of someone coming out of nowhere to win this tourney, he hadn't made a previous US Open cut before his win in '09 and his only win prior was Disney. Won again this year at the Wells Fargo, but doesn't seem like a guy you have to worry about being a 2 time US Open champ.
Side note: Fowler and Baddeley are two of my favorites on tour and I hope they contend, but the US Open has been the worst major for both and both are more likely to play birdie/bogey golf than the US Open desired par/par.
Mannassero (55/1) Garcia (50/1) Harrington (50/1) Day (50/1) Poulter (50/1)
Worth a shot: Day: This is his first US Open start, but in his first start in each of the other 3 majors he made the cut and finished T10 at the PGA and T2 at this year's Masters.
Former major winner: Harrington: By far the major Paddy has had the least amount of success playing, missed the cut in two of the last 4 years and hasn't finished inside the T25 since '06. Like Cink, he is 38, but seems a decade older.
Side note: I was surprised to see Sergio go through sectional qualifying for this event, but after checking out his US Open record (11 starts, 7 T25 finishes, 2 MC's and consecutive finishes of T18, T10, and T22) I was as surprised as when I checked out Cabrera's record..
Toms (40/1) Kim (40/1) Scott (40/1):
Worth a shot: Kim: He won on this course at the 2008 AT&T National and has finishes of T20, T26, and T16 in his three US Open starts before missing last season with a wrist injury. He hasn't been the same player since the injury, but has the talent and history to contend this week.
Former major winner: Toms: You would have won a lot of money if you would have bet someone at the beginning of the season that Toms would have more top 10's than Scott and Kim combined at this point in the season.
Side note: This is the only major Scott doesn't have a T10 (T21 in '06 is his best finish), he seems to have found his stroke with the long putter and will have Tiger's bodyguard Steve Williams on the bag to destroy any cameras if necessary. If Tiger is out long term maybe Stevie has a future with the Secret Service?
Casey (33/1) Choi (33/1) (Rose 33/1) Furyk (33/1) Ogilivy (33/1) Schwartzel (33/1) Watson (33/1)
Worth a shot: Choi: He hasn't had much success at the US Open, but he did win the AT&T National at this course in '07 and contending this year at the Masters and winning the Players gives him a lot of positive vibes.
Rose: He is more of a ball striker than a feel player which should be an advantage at this course, won two times on the PGA tour last summer in the heat and is a native Euro who is comfortable on US soil and with US crowds.
Former major winners: Furyk: His win in '03 and back to back 2nd's in '06 and '07 seem like a generation ago as the 41 year old doesn't have a top ten this season and faded during last year's PGA. Furyk's career ark seems to be headed the way of Posada or Jeter and too bad for him that in golf you don't have a Steinbrenner to pay you twice market value for previous success.
Ogilvy: Suffered through a brutal season last year and missed the cut in last year's US Open, but has rebounded this season to contend at the Masters and his 5 straight top 40 finishes before last year's US Open coupled with the '06 win make him a solid option at this price.
Schwartzel: Emerged from the pack on Sunday at Augusta to win his first major after a run of consistently good play in the majors. Expect him to be in the conversation, but two majors in a row is too much to ask.
Side note: When you think US Open you have a tendency to think that the winner is a short hitter who finds the fairway, but the stats show a big hitter is usually the winner. Watson clearly meets that requirement, but the ability to stay away from the "others" will determine if he contends on a USGA setup.
Watney (28/1) McDowell (28/1) Kuchar (25/1) Mahan (25/1)
Quality Plays: Watney: His seems to have taken the next step this season with his win at Doral and his consistent top 10 finishes. He has only missed 4 cuts since beginning to play the majors in '07 and a high draw is always a good ball flight for US Open courses.
Kuchar has finished T25, T6, T27, T10, T27 in his last five major starts and is coming off a second place finish at the Memorial two weeks ago. There is a lot of value in all of his numbers going into this week.
Former major winner: McDowell: The reigning champ was the best player on the planet from last year's Open to the end of the season. He has had some up and downs to his season this year, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see him contend this week.
Side note: Mahan has had some tough finishes, losing the '02 Amateur to Barnes and losing the deciding singles match in last year's Ryder Cup, but he has also finished T16 in all of the majors and married a Dallas Cowboy cheerleader. A major title seems to be on the horizon for a player with 7 T10's so far this season.
D. Johnson (22/1) Stricker (22/1) Kaymer (20/1) McIlroy (16/1) Mickelson (12/1) Donald (12/1) Westwood (10/1)
All seven of these players are quality plays and the value of each is what makes this tournament so unique with even the favorite paying out at 10/1.
DJ: Looking for redemption after last year's final round fold up and final hole screw-up at the PGA. For his career he has made 9 of 10 cuts at the majors and has finished T48, T40, and 8th in his 3 US Open starts. Having longtime Couples caddie Joe LaCava on his bag should help with his composure, strategy and any rules issues. His finishes this year like his personality have been all over the map, but it isn't a reach to see him contend and playing with Mickelson and McIlroy should benefit him early.
Stricker: He has a little Tom Lehman in'97 going for him this year. He has been rock solid and comes in hot after a win at the Memorial, but with the depth of quality young players it is increasingly hard to get a major, especially your first at age 44.
Kaymer: A forgettable ball-strikers course seems like a place last year's PGA champ would flourish and he seems to always be rounding into shape at the majors. If you knew nothing about their backgrounds, but watched Dirk and Kaymer compete in their respective sports it wouldn't take you too long to realize they are from the same country by the way the robotically compete at a high level. I am the only person who gets more impressed with the Allied effort in WWII after watching them compete?
McIlroy: The most interesting player in the field this week after his final round at Augusta, in only 10 career major starts he has a T15 in each major leaving little question about how his game translates to the big stage. The question will be if you believe he can mentally rebound from his recent Sunday struggles, 16/1 seems like enough value to find out. Playing with D. Johnson and Mickelson the first two rounds won't give him an opportunity to come in under the radar.
Mickelson: You have to wonder how many more opportunities Mickelson will have to win a US Open; he is 40 years old and has 5 second place finishes and 2 fourth place finishes. His near misses are vividly remembered and you have to think he knows that in this wide open field this week might be one of his last chances. The group with Johnson and McIlroy should help him as well, but I can't say I trust him enough in this event.
Donald: His play this year has been great; he is #1 in the world and leads both the PGA and Euro money lists. He won two feature tourney's, the WGC Match Play and the BMW at Wentworth this season and you can pretty much guarantee that he will get a top ten this week, but a win would make his year historic and without question give him the title of best golfer in the world. 12/1 is great value for someone who has been so good and it will be interesting to see if he can continue his great year during a major week, as Novak Djokovic can attest to there is something different about major weeks.
Westwood: Also a guy who can tell you how different the major weeks are, he has more than enough game to succeed, but hasn't been a guy who can be trusted in contention on Sunday. Like Donald it is safe to say he probably will contend, but the 10/1 odds as the outright favorite tell you that being this year's pre-tourney favorite is grading on the curve. The question is if he is in contention on the back nine on Sunday would you want him over any off the other favorites, if so this is great value.
Monday, June 13, 2011
The Mavs, Really?
If last night was the last NBA game for an extended period, "showmanship" is the word I would use to describe the finish. The Mavs were more than just an afterthought at the beginning of the playoffs; other Western conference playoff teams were openly discussing tanking games to draw them in the first round. Dallas was the only favorite multiple experts predicted against in the first round, only New Orleans had less support in the entire west bracket. Dirk was expected to be their only offensive threat and the Mavs were dismissed as having missed their title window.
When the playoffs began 6 weeks ago we expected to see something remarkable along the lines of the Lakers 3 peating, Boston's redemption, OKC and Chicago's breakthroughs, and the first of multiple Heat titles. What we didn't expect was Dallas to re-write their team legacy and in the process vault Dirk, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, and Tyson Chandler into historically perspectives that would have been laughed about on Easter. During an offseason/season when the Heat remade their franchise with the additions of Lebron and Bosh, the Knicks and Nets acquiring Carmelo and D-Will respectively, and the Celts added Shaq, only your most shrewd defensive metric analysts would have pegged Tyson Chandler as the biggest acquisition of the year. Chandler played the kind of the defense that was envisioned when he was the second overall pick of the draft out of high school; his athleticism transformed the Mavs front line from a weakness to strength as his focus on defense and rebounding rubbed off on everyone and allowed the Mavs to bury Brendan Haywood on the bench. His ability to protect the rim, clean up the garbage offensively and defend with a passion while staying out of foul trouble changed the demeanor of the Mavs in the Finals.
Jason Terry being labeled as Dallas' second best player during his tenure with the Mavs was not a compliment, it was the reason usually given to why Dallas would never win a title and as support for Dirk's MVP case. When Lebron and the Heat defense bottled Terry up during the first three games of the Finals it was about as surprising as a "Real Housewives" divorce. When Terry expressed his doubt to the press that Lebron could hold him down for the entire series it felt like an African dictator telling the public there was no unrest in his country as protests were being staged behind him. Taking a page out of the Vinny Johnson and Vernon Maxwell playbook, Terry went on to dominant the series and his team high 27 points in Game 6 kept the Mavs ahead while Dirk struggled and tied the most ever for a bench player in a Finals clinching game. Maxwell, the Microwave, and Manu make room for the Jet on the list of bench guys who became stars during their teams title runs.
Chandler and Terry were revelations this postseason, but other than John Lackey living up to his contract nothing has been more surprising in the world of sports than watching Jason Kidd during this postseason. When he ably defended Kobe Bryant in clutch time during the Lakers series it seemed more an indication of how close father time was to catching Kobe, then he backed that up by alternating defensively on Westbrook/Durant and Wade/Lebron in the Finals. He is a decade past the days when he could defend the others team's best for the entire game, but the ability to play them tough in the clutch was the difference for this Mavs team that was just as comfortable with a game in the 80's as they were with a game in triple digits. Kidd became the second oldest starter behind Kareem to win a title and he was running the team from the point as opposed to posting up with the sky hook. Keeping with the theme for the Mavs, Kidd made himself a good spot up shooter and filled his role as distributor, defender, and team leader. He was commonly dismissed in the Payton/Nash/Kidd all time discussion, but after this postseason and his career crunch time (+/-) stats he is building a case for himself as one of the greats at the position.
Dirk has always been a fascinating study historically; his overwhelming steadiness without a second option has been admired along with his array of offensive moves. The '06 Finals haunted his legacy like Mitch Williams' slider to Joe Carter and it seemed he was on pace to be remembered as a great offensive player who let a 2-0 Finals lead get away. It is funny what happens when your teammates make a few jump shots and start to play better defensively. Dirk has improved his offensive game every season; his numbers this postseason were right on par with his career playoff numbers, but dominating the fourth quarter and outperforming Wade and Lebron in the most watched Finals since MJ will do wonders for a legacy. Dirk lifting the Finals MVP award had a bit of a John Elway feel to it and it was hard not to feel like it was sweet justice after the '06 series, the not tough enough labels, and the in series mocking from two Heat stars. As for legacies the best Euro player ever and top 20 overall isn't too bad for a guy traded for Tractor Traylor on draft night.
Miami is in for a long summer as Lebron has once again come up short, the most interesting questions will be if Chris Bosh and Coach Spo are around for the second season of the "superfriends". Bosh seems out of place and a rugged big man and serviceable point guard in exchange for him seems more than reasonable. Hopefully, Lebron and Wade stick up for Coach Spo, who is a bright young coach, but it doesn't always work like that in the NBA and his inability to develop an offense against a zone and find a steady rotation are issues. If this is truly a long term plan the Heat would be smart to surround the two stars with young players who are athletic and have room to improve, rather than sign every bought out free agent during the season.
As the NFL has shown at least we have the draft, but after that and while we are waiting on David Stern and Billy Hunter at least we have ESPN classic and NBA TV and the '11 Finals.
Friday, June 10, 2011
Beating the Hype
It is rare in today's day and age when something exceeds or matches it expectations, whether it be sporting events, movies, or TV shows. Invariably the hype overshadows the event and you are left saying "We needed 2 weeks and an 8 hour game day pre-game show for that?" Happens all the time when we think back to the majority of Super Bowls, Finals, Stanley Cups, World Series, movie sequels (other than Fast Five), TV shows, and it is only getting worse as the internet age continues to break down every wall of communication. What chance does the Hangover 3 have to match expectations when it already being discussed now; or the next installment of the Dark Knight franchise when the next villain was being discussed while the latest installment was still in theaters? Every Real World season starts out with commercial clips of the most exciting 5 minutes of the 3 months, and then after 5 episodes you are left with the same egocentric camera loving degenerates as the previous 20 seasons and you wonder "Do I really care why a waitress from Jamestown always falls for the worst type of guys?" Now we are conditioned to expect the hype to beat event, so it is a surprise and a cause for celebration when we get the reverse.
This year's NBA and NHL finals running on opposite nights and continuing to beat the hype have been the biggest surprise example of event over hype since Heath Ledger put on the Joker make up. Both have not only been great sport, but both have a movie script with a reality TV show feel. In the NHL you have two teams from the opposite ends of the continent starving for a Cup, both with rapid fan bases and rich history. On the Vancouver roster is Roberto Luongo, the NHL player who could most use a couple months on Dr. Drew's couch along with the maddening Sedin twins who could just as easily be characters in a Steig Larsson novel and the irony that Western Canada's fans best hope for the Cup is if US Olympic hero Ryan Kelser throws the Canucks on his back. Meanwhile, the Bruins have come back from a 0-2 hole partly thanks to the emotion from one of their players being knocked out of the series due to an illegal hit and another of their players having their finger bite by Canucks forward Alexandre Burrows. All that is left is for a goalie or coach fight and in the NHL that wouldn't be unexpected. Tim Thomas is playing like Patrick Roy, but looks more like Goldberg from the Mighty Ducks and Bruins captain Zdeno Chara, who is a dead ringer for Ivan Drako, might out do both Drako's and Rocky's pre-fight training and play all 60 minutes if there is a game 7. Two blowout Bruins wins followed two last second wins by Vancouver and as the series head back to BC the only thing I know for sure is that O' Canada will get more cheers in game 5 than it did in games 3 and 4 and I will be unable miss a second of the action.
The NBA Finals is even more exciting theater as the Lebron drama enters month 11 with the outcome still in doubt. Good vs. Evil is more defined in this series as Dirk is battling the evil empire and the play of Lebron has been analyzed by both NBA circles and psychologists. The off court drama surrounding Lebron has been a reality TV producers dream as the sentiment for his fourth quarter play seems to be tied more to the personal lives of his inner circle than the Mavs defense. The series is as close as it can be after 5 games, but unlike last year when you expected constant high level play from the Lakers/Celtics the prospect of this series going any numerous ways in game 6 and 7 makes it the most anticipated games (in any sport) in memory. The fun in this series has even spread to the media as La Batard vs. Barkley and ESPN Heat index vs. ESPN Dallas battle it out with one liners, bets, analysis and adjustments. Unlike even great basketball series', this has been more appealing because it is more than just basketball, if I told you the Heat stormed back on their home court to dominate games 6 and 7 behind Lebron as he validated his decision and the best player in the game label, would you be surprised? What if I told you the Heat would come out flat in game 6 as Dirk and Dallas shoot lights out while Lebron has that far away look like the hated cast member of the Real World on the reunion show who tells all his fellow castmates how he wants nothing to do with them every again and is just happy this is over, you probably wouldn't be stunned either? The most likely scenario is something in the middle as both teams seems to be as evenly matched Hickory and South Bend, but the possibility of where this script is going to go is what makes the movie.
If both series' go seven games next Tuesday and Wednesday will be as good as it gets and will be the perfect lead in to America's fifth professional sport, MTV Challenge "Rivals", because there is always a couple things we can count on, the rule of three, and the ability of TJ Lavin hosted Challenge to exceed the hype.
Tuesday, June 7, 2011
A Game 4 suggestion for the Mavs
The Finals through 3 games has been nothing if not close, each game has been decided by a razor thin margin with 2 games coming down to the last shot. Miami could easily be leading the series 3-0 and Dallas could be holding a 2-1 edge if a loose ball or two went the other way. A couple of constants have been the suffocating Heat defense which has held the Mavs to 37.3% shooting in the series, Dirk's ability to hold the Mavs in games while being out-manned by the Heat's Big 3, and the disappearance of the Mavs offensive specialists.
Jason Kidd (8-23), Jason Terry (13-34), and JJ Barea (5-23) have all struggled shooting the ball against the athletic and aggressive Heat defense, but all three are major cogs in the Mavs attack and you are going to win or lose with these three. Jason Kidd contributes in other ways by playing underrated defense on multiple positions, running the offense, and getting the ball to Dirk where he is most comfortable. Terry is the Mavs' second best offensive player; even coming off the bench he is vital to the team's success in the fourth quarter as evidenced by his good play in Game 2 and his no-shows in the 4th quarters in games 1 and 3. He has never been asked to score consistently against a defender like Lebron, but he is a ride or die guy for Carlisle and the Mavs. JJ Barea has been a revelation this postseason; he backed up a solid performance vs. Portland in the first round with a breakout demolition of the Lakers by using his speed to get to the paint whenever he wanted. He has been the back-up energy point guard the Mavs have needed with Kidd as the starter and the Mavs are forced to live with his deficiencies at this point.
If there is a move Rick Carlisle can make that will potentially change the series for the Mavs it is to bury Peja Stojakovic on the bench and give his limited minutes to Corey Brewer. Dirk has played all but 20 minutes through the first 3 games of the series and the Mavs are a Sedin twins like -31 in those 20 minutes with Stojakovic on the court. Peja has only played 26 minutes in the three games, but has been part of the 4 worst Mavs' lineups in terms of (+/-) during that time. His defensive shortcomings make him an immediate target for the Heat and his inability to add anything offensively (1-5 FGA, 0-4 3 pt. FGA) should earn the 33 year old a permanent place next to Brain Cardinal on the Mavs bench. In Corey Brewer the Mavs have an athletic defender and energy guy to match up with Heat wing players. The knock on Corey Brewer is his lack of an offensive game, but in a series where every Mavs perimeter player outside of Dirk is shooting around 20% what is the harm in playing Brewer? According to every defensive measurement he is above average which should at least stem the tide of the team (+/-) while Dirk rests. If any team knows the importance of how good players can be without being volume shooters the Mavs should be that team with the difference Tyson Chandler has made this season and with 82games.com founder Roland Beech on the team's bench as a consultant.
The Mavs biggest advantage over the Heat entering this series was on the bench with Rick Carlisle and this is his chance to shape Game 4 and the series as a whole. Unlike Kidd, Terry, and to a lesser extent Barea, Stojakovic can not only be replaced, but his spot and minutes can be upgraded by giving Brewer his minutes. The play of the 4 stars, the Heat defense, and the shooting of the offensive specialists for the Mavs will be the primary focus of game 4, but a determining under the radar factor will be the Mavs lineups when Dirk rests and more specifically the Peja vs. Brewer determination Rick Carlisle needs to make.