Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Lotto Luck and Game 2 Advice

I hope that the Clipper's front office executive who decided not to protect their first round pick that they traded to the Cavs as incentive to take Baron Davis and his crippling contract at the February trade deadline called off sick today.  Hopefully he has enough sick time to get him to the lockout after that unprotected pick and its 2.7% chance of winning the lottery hit Tuesday night for the Cavs.  As Minnesota GM David Kahn insinuated the NBA has a Tim Donaghy like habit of producing great lottery storylines and the Cavs winning the lottery with the Clipps pick to combine with their own pick at #4 is ironic, but not up there with the Knicks winning the lotto to select Ewing, the Cavs lottery lucking into Lebron, and the Bulls with Rose. 

I understand what Clipps GM Neil Olshey was trying to do by shedding Baron's 5 yr. 65 million dollar contract (thanks Mike Dunleavy) at its midpoint and a mid lottery selection in this year's weak draft was reasonable compensation, but not protecting the pick is another four base error for the Bad News Bears of the NBA.  Instead of combining overall #1 pick Kyrie Irving with Eric Gordon and Blake Griffin to form a potent young nucleus, the Clipps will be forced to stick with a revolving door of aging veterans (paging Mo Williams) at the point hoping on hope for the 5% chance of a Bledsoe breakout.  A painful instance of "the Clippers curse" as poor management decisions and bad luck are used as the ingredients that lead to head shaking results.  At this rate is there any doubt that Blake Griffin will turn down a more lucrative Clippers' contract to get out of town the first chance he gets? While the thought of Eric Gordon escaping his "injury risk" history and Al-Farouq Aminu and Bledsoe developing in solid starters seems as likely as Vinny Del Negro winning a NBA coach of the year award.  For good measure doesn't this assure that cross town Lakers will trade for Howard this off-season and the new CBA will allow them to "Allan Houston" Ron Artest's contract, which is all part of the seemingly never ending Clippers' curse.

Even in a weak draft the overall #1 and #4 picks should allow the Cavs a chance to fast track the rebuilding process in the soft underbelly of the Eastern conference.  Duke PG Kyrie Irving and San Diego State SF Kawhi Leonard project as solid starters to combine with holdovers J.J. Hickson, Christian Eyenga, and Anderson Varaejao.  Last night's lottery was one of the few bright days for Cav's basketball since "The Decision" and the good times could continue to roll for the fighting "Dan Gilbert's" if Chicago can smother Miami again in Game 2 tonight and take a 2-0 series advantage to South Beach.

Like most of America I am pulling for the Bulls and not just because of a pre-season title future.  The team first defensive approach and humble MVP Derrick Rose are easy to support and are a stark contrast to the individual over team approach in Miami, but hopefully the series becomes more competitive than Game 1.  With that thought in mind I have a few suggestions for Heatles as they prepare for Game 2. 

First, stop waiting for Chicago to beat themselves, because it is not going to happen, this isn't the happy to be in the playoffs Sixers or the beat up and battered Celtics.  Lebron and Wade looked stunned on Sunday that the Bulls were playing them tough and not just surrendering to the Heat aura.  There is no doubt that the Bulls are younger, quicker, and deeper, but hungrier?  The Heat should be the hungrier team, winning a title was the reason so often cited as why Lebron, Wade, and Bosh came together this offseason, so after beating the Celts they should be the team smelling blood and the chance to play for the title, not the baby Bulls.  Even though they are undersized Lebron and Wade must control the area around the paint, it is something Jordan and Pippen did constantly when they were winning titles and playing bigger teams, and Lebron and Wade dominated the paint in the first two rounds of these playoffs.  Wade should be demanding that he be the primary defender on Rose and Lebron should take his turn as well, your best players defend the other teams best when your season is on the line even if the matchup is not ideal.  Energy starts on the defensive end with desire and who better to lead the Heat in this area than their stars.  Pressuring the ball and chasing Rose around will no doubt make for a tiring series for Wade and Lebron, but isn't the alternative much worse?

This series and this season is not a referendum on the Heat's supporting cast and the big 3 (or 2.5 depending on your feelings of Bosh) need to get that out of their mind and talking points.  As Denny Green would say we know who Bibby, Chalmers, Anthony, Ilgauskas, Jones, and Howard are and they are going to be who they are for the rest of the series and the rest of their careers, which are coming to a close for 2/3rds of them.  Other than Mike Miller's disappearing act this was the crew Wade/Bosh/Lebron knew they were getting when they were parading around a stage predicting 7 titles in July.  With that in mind Spoelstra needs to stop with the isolation plays on offense and run Wade off 3 separate screens or pick and roll 95% of halfcourt possessions if he has to, and allow Lebron to be the primary ball handler and facilitate the offense through him.  Movement is their only chance against one of the best and most aggressive defenses in the NBA's modern era, not only will this help Wade and Lebron who are settling for contested jumpers at a Corey Maggette like rate, but it will force the Bulls to work harder on defense and the movement should allow the aforementioned supporting cast to spot up for open jumpers and get to the boards more easily.

Finally, the Heat as a group and the big three specifically need to stop whining.  Wade and Lebron are two of the best handful of basketball players in the world and the game should be what they are concentrating on.  When Wade and Lebron are at their best and playing hard they are a joy to watch, and most of the bad feelings from "The Decision" and the shadiness of how this team was put together fade when watching them compete and play hard.  The negative feelings around this team were brought on by the stars of the team, they need to move on and play basketball and stop whining about being cast as villains every time they are in front of a camera, embrace it NWO style.

The Mavs took Game 1 with a historic performance by Dirk Nowitzki (48 pts, 12/15 FG's, 24/24 FT's, 3.2 pts/FGA) as he continues adding to his resume and legacy this postseason.  Nowitzki is 3 wins away from the Finals and a chance to make up for '06 collapse and to stake his claim as one of the best 20 players to ever play in the NBA, not bad for a slow 7 footer from Germany.  Durant was almost as equally impressive in Game scoring 40 points on 10/18 FG's and 18/19 FT's.  Game 1 was the most impressive offensive display I have witnessed and my advice is to tune in to what looks to be a great series as this postseason gains momentum like the Rambo franchise.  After the offensive outbursts in Game 1 this series is going to come down to which team can play a little defense against the other team's star and half court execution in tight spots.

My advice for Scottie Brooks as he watches the tape in preparation for Game 2 is to do everything he can to not allow Dirk to catch the ball at the top of the key.  At least on one of the blocks he has fewer options that when he is allowed to work from the top of the key.  The double teams are not as effective when he can see them coming since he is proficient at finding the open man for an open 3.  Also, once he makes a few jumpers the Thunder should force him to drive, as his numbers indicate Dirk will always make the smart basketball play and pass the ball to the open man even if the open man is Brendan Haywood.  Every time Haywood/Marion gets a pass in the paint or anyone but Terry gets an open jumper it is a win for the Thunder defense.  Other than Chandler dunks, the Thunder can live with any other Mavs big in the paint or on the line and any jump shooter other than Terry getting looks and that should be the Thunder defensive strategy going forward.

It goes without saying that the Thunder are in trouble when J.J. Barea outscores Westbrook, but 11 of Westbrook's 15 misses were in the paint, so that seems to be an anomaly.  The bigger issue is Brooks turning to Nate Robinson for six minutes of matador defense on Barea and air balled 3's.  The Thunder have a quality back up PG in Maynor, who is a guy that allows them to move Westbrook off the ball when they want to go small, and unless Brook's missed the NBA Finals last season Rivers showed that Robinson hasn't earned the trust to play meaningful playoff minutes. 

I was skeptical that the Western Finals would be able to live up to the Mavs stunning destruction of LA and the highly entertaining Thunder/Grizz semi's, but after one game it is safe to say that this is one that hopefully goes 7 and too bad it can't go best of 11.

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