French Open Odds

 

Nothing says spring like continuous days of rain in Pennsylvania and the red clay of Roland Garros.  The red clay is not only distinctive, but it makes for a truly different playing surface and in turn leads to  physically grueling matches and more upsets than the other three Slams.  The men's tournament the last handful of years has been about Rafael Nadal's domination (won 5 of the last 6) and Roger Federer's ('09 champion) chase of the one major that had eluded him for years.  The tournaments narrative has dramatically changed this year as Novak Djokovic enters the tournament undefeated on the year (39-0) and on the cusp of the #1 ranking.  Djokovic has always been something of an enigma; he has always had as much talent as anyone, but seemed to be missing the mental and physical toughness demanded in the sport.  From afar he seemed happy to be the 3^rd best player in the game and enjoy the life that came with it.  This year after a change in diet and fitness he looks like the Serbian kid who devoted his life to the game while living in a country shredded by war and NATO bombing raids.  His type of adversity didn't involve injuries or coaching issues or family history, he was able to maintain his singular focus on tennis while trying to survive civil war and nightly bombing raids.  His Australian Open title this year was his second and his four straight victories over Nadal in tournament finals (2 on clay) might be his third most impressive stat after his unbeaten streak and the fact that he has only lost 8 sets since November.  The question of this being a historical great run for Djokovic or if he is a historically great player we be answered after the next couple of years beginning with his opening match in Paris this week.  With that in mind below are the odds for the men's and women's draws.

Nadal (8/11): The five time and defending champ remains the favorite, but as he admitted he has not been on the level of Djokovic so far this season.  He should breeze to the finals and be comfortable on Court Philippe Chatrier, but has his mental advantage over the field and in particular Djokovic been destroyed by their last four meetings in finals?

Djokovic (11/8):  Seems like a good price for a player who hasn't lost this season.  There is no question about his physical game, but a finals appearance in this tournament will be the biggest mental hurdle of his career to date.

Federer (14/1):  As I wrote last year after he was beaten early at Wimbledon, I was hoping I would never see the day when he had odds this size next to his name in a Grand Slam.  This isn't Mays falling in the outfield of Griffey sleeping in the clubhouse, but we might be watching Emmitt Smith in a Cards jersey.

Murray (16/1) Del Potro (16/1):  Both with questions as the clay is Murray's worst surface with the quarters as his best result in Paris, while Del Potro is only 4 months back from a yearlong wrist injury in '10.

Ferrer (25/1) Soderling (25/1):  Both are interesting and potential sleepers at this price.  Ferrer is playing the best tennis of his career and if he wins a major in his career it will be on the dirt.  Soderling hasn't been up to Ferrer's form lately, but he is a heavy hitter who has had success at the French and is the only player to beat Nadal in this Slam.

 

Verdasco (80/1) Tsonga (80/1) Melzer (80/1) Monfils (100/1) Cilic (100/1):  If there is a true longshot in the field this year I think that it will come from this group.  All of these players have the weapons to be a threat, but none have showed the overall consistency needed to win a Slam.  Verdasco and Cilic have explosive games while Tsonga and Melzer have threatened before in Slams albeit on other surfaces.  Monfils might be the most athletic player in the game and has been a threat in this tournament before, but staying healthy for six straight matches has always been his challenge.  At these prices there is only upside with this group.  

As for the women's draw, this is the first Slam without a Williams sister since '03, so wearing questionable outfits will be a void left to be filled by other players.  Unlike in the men's draw the women's draw is wide open.  Both of the favorites are searching for the first career Slams, while veteran comeback stories are the next group on the board.  The defending champ as the 11^th choice on the board is an indication that this tourney is up for grabs.

Wozniacki (9/2):  She is the world #1 and has an all around game that translates to any surface, but shouldn't the #1 player in the world have more than one final on her resume?  Her 8-4 career record in Paris is her worst at all the Slams, but in a wide open draw she could be a threat and the price isn't terrible for the # 1 player.

Azarenka (9/2):  Heavy favorite to grunt the loudest during matches, like Wozniacki she is young (21) and more than capable from the baseline, but she has never been past the quarters in a Slam and went out in the first round of last year's French.  One thing going for her is that she is from the last communist regime of the Soviet republics (Belarus); that just sounds like old school women's tennis.

Sharapova (7/1):  She had every reason to pack it in after major shoulder surgery and has had to rebuild her serve, the most important part of the game, but she has continued playing, fighting, and competing something you can't say about her husband.  She is playing as well on the dirt as she ever has in her career and is a must play for me after her win in the Italian Open last week.  A win would give her the career Grand Slam and restore her place as one of the best in the game.

Clijsters (8/1):  She hasn't played the French in five years and this will be her first appearance since her dreaded dancing injury at a relatives wedding in February.  Her play at the US Open the last two years shows that she is a threat at the Slams, but long matches on clay are not ideal in your first tourney back from a leg injury.

Stosur (8/1):  Made the finals last year and the semi's the year before, quality price for a quality player who gained some valuable Paris experience the last couple of years.  My second favorite play of the players with single odds, behind Sharapova.

Jankovic (12/1):  A former #1 in the world who only has one final to her name ('08 US Open), but her play since that year when she played in 1 final and 2 semi's has gone downhill.  Still in a weak draw she could merit a small value play.

Kuznetsova (14/1):  The '09 champ is the Mike Stanton of the draw, meaning she will either hit a home run and be a threat to win or will strike out and be out in the first week.

Schiavone (16/1):  The defending champ had a magical run last year as the biggest surprise to win a Slam in the last decade, but defending would be even more of a surprise.

Ivanovic (20/1):  Like Sharapova she has come back to play some of her best tennis this year, but unlike Sharapova it wasn't an injury that set her back.  She fought a lose of confidence and a lost game, but she was a finalist in Paris before and I could see her making a run into the second week this year.

Pennetta (50/1):  A long shot who I think has value, like Schiavone, she is Italian and she has an all court game.  She is comfortable exchanging from the baseline or playing at net.  She might be a little more comfortable on the surface in Australia or New York City, but she is capable on dirt.

Hantuchova (66/1):  Another long shot with value, she is one of the best servers in the women's game and has been moving as well as she has in years, a few early wins could get her momentum going into the second week.

Kirilenko (100/1):  Last year was her best year on Tour as she made the quarters in Australia and the fourth round in the French.  She is confident and as athletic as anyone in the women's game and in a wide open draw these odds are worth a risk.