We finish up the PGA major season with the flagship Championship at the Atlanta Athletic Club in Duluth Georgia. Staying in line with the previous two majors this is another ho-hum course without much distinction. I received Golf Magazine's Top 100 courses edition this week and couldn't find this track in the list of best 100 in the country. One thing we can be sure of is that it will be hot and that the grounds crew will most likely have to water the greens to keep them alive. Along with the course my biggest concern is that this season the PGA plays 3 of their 5 most prominent events in the state of Georgia and has less geographic diversity than NASCAR. I can't be the only person that can't wait for next year's US Open at the Olympic Club outside of San Francisco. As Chubby Chandler managed golfers go for the Slam sweep and USA golf looks to build on the encouraging British Open results and end their record streak of futility below are the odds.
E. Molinari, Allenby, P. Hanson, Overton (125/1): Hanson has a T7 at the US Open on a similar course and has been on the first page of Sunday WGC leaderboards in America giving him some value at this number. With only one major and the Fed Ex Cup left in the season it isn't too early to talk about underachievers and Jeff Overton is in the conversation with only 3 Top 10's this season. The new wave of young players has turned Allenby into an afterthought at the majors and Eddie Mol's seems to be the rare Euro these days that is more comfortable playing the old Euro style which this course is not.
Baddeley and Villegas (100/1): Baddeley has battled back this season with a win and a handful of top 10's, he has the game to contend and win a major and is decent value at triple digits. Villegas is on the list for biggest disappointment this season, with only one top 10 this season, any type of contention this week would be seen as progress, but a MC is more likely.
F. Molinari, Quiros, Stenson, Laird, Oosthuizen (90/1): An interesting group of tier 2 European young players (we are rounding in Stenson's case) all come into the final major with the same odds. Quiros has been a bad round away from contention at two majors this year and seems to be trending in the right direction. I can see Molinari coming out of nowhere to win a major on US soil, but as any new father can tell you your game usually struggles that first year. King Louis looks on the road to Ben Curtis territory, but at least he won at the Old Course and I would need odds to take Stenson over countryman Hanson in a prop this week no matter what these odds say.
Snedeker, B. Haas, Glover, Yang (80/1): Glover and Yang are former major winners who contended at the British and US Open's respectively this year and Sned's and Haas have both had breakout seasons on tour this year. There is value in all four but I would personally rank them Sneds, Haas, Yang, Glover.
Rose, Els, Casey, Karlsson, Clarke (70/1): Clarke deserves the walk just for the parties as he continues to find out what happens when your dream comes true. He hasn't been under par since the win, but I doubt he has thought twice about it. The other four on this list have been major disappointments this season. Karlsson has never achieved anything to underachieve and is a product of a world ranking system only the BCS could love. Casey and Rose join Villegas on the list of the most surprising underachievers this season, Rose won twice last summer and looked on the verge of a major this season and Casey was 2nd last year in the British and contended for the Fed Ex Cup until the final 9 holes. Els is losing the same battle against father time that Jeter is and the Big Easy is running out of tourney's to get his first T10 of the season.
Goosen, Fisher, Harrington (65/1): Like Els, Goosen and Harrington are getting old at the wrong time with the young players on tour now and a hot "Americanized" course in Georgia in August seems to fit Fisher as well as sobriety does Charlie Sheen.
Poulter, Manassero, O'Hair, Toms (60/1): World golf fans know that Poulter won the World Match Play over Donald and that is all that is keeping him from the Villegas, Casey, Rose list. His results in this county suggest a MC before contention. Manassero looks like a future major winner a few years from now, but his price wouldn't stay this low long. Both Americans have wins this season and Toms won here in '01, while O'Hair won the Canadian Open on a major worthy course.
Choi (45/1), Mahan (35/1), Watson (35/1): All three are capable and all three have played well this season in the spring. Mahan was a top 10 machine until June and Watson won twice before the Masters, both were considered American's best major hope until the actual majors began. All three have value, but that is due to recent play.
McDowell (40/1): No one was playing better than McDowell was at the end of last season, after his US Open victory he contended every time he played and by the time he steamrolled Tiger in his own tournament in November he looked like the best player in the world. So why would he change equipment in the offseason? Since the equipment change he hasn't put together 72 consecutive holes and his confidence has followed his results.
Day and Kuchar (32/1): Very interesting pair at this number, the common sentiment on both after watching them strike the ball is to wonder how they can contend. Their ability to make miles of putts and to grind out shot after shot makes them major contenders. Kuchar doesn't seem like the most competitive guy on tour, but the PGA in his backyard might be the most suitable major he will ever tee it up in. Day has 2nd place finishes at the Masters and US Open, so a couple good ball striking days could easily make him the next big thing on tour. I like both this week at this number.
Schwartzel, Kim, Fowler, Garcia (30/1): It was nice to see Kim in the conversation again at the British a couple of weeks ago and he is on the verge, but it will probably come at a regular event before a major and Schwartzel is a contender, but one major for the year seems right for him. If you would have told me that Sergio would be at least half the number at the PGA of Villegas, Casey, Rose, and Poulter before the season I would have laughed Dr. Evil style, but he has played well in all three majors and is good value at this number. I feel the same about Fowler; it seems highly unlikely that your first PGA win would come in a major until you watch him play big events. Next to Clarke, Fowler might have had the best British Open as he stared down McIlroy for three days and was a bad putting day from serious Sunday contention.
Stricker, Watney, Scott (25/1): Stricker plays the role of veteran American well and his better majors results are in the PGA, but that was over 10 years ago. Watney has had a breakout year with two wins, but unlike last year when he made all four major cuts and had three T18 finishes this year he has missed 2 of three cuts with a 46th place finish at Augusta. The jury is still out on him, but there is a big difference between major contender and PGA ATM as Stricker can attest to. No one is hotter than Scott unless you count his caddie and his odds have probably lowered since this number. You would think Steve Williams trains Jedi's after Scott's win last week in Akron, but Scott's fortunes will hinge on the goalie stick putter and few have put together WGC events and majors in back to back weeks.
D. Johnson (20/1): To his credit he probably has the most talent and continues to be a factor in majors, but he also continues to fall short in maddening ways. Whether it is bad decisions, penalty strokes, or out of bounds on the only hole with OB if there is a chance to lose it DJ has. The course should benefit him and his play at the British was mostly encouraging and "if you keep giving yourself chances". Didn't East Lake member coach Dan Reeves have the same Super Bowl philosophy?
Kaymer (18/1): The defending champ looked like a weekly contender after his win at Whistling Straits, but a swing change has left him in a transition state. He was the favorite going into the weekend at the British, but never made noise and looking back at last year it is even more apparent that he backed into the win after Johnson's and Watson's major errors.
Woods (16/1): The wide open state of PGA Tour majors is made apparent in these odds. Woods hasn't won in three years and is in his second week of play after another 2 month leg injury layoff. He hasn't shown the game or health to contend since '08, but is still the 5th choice on the board? I wonder what Nicklaus' odds would be if he deceided to play?
Donald (12/1): He is the world #1 and has been the best player in the world this year with 3 wins, but after a T4 @ the Masters he hasn't been on a major leaderboard. Toms' victory here in '01 should give him confidence since his game is Tom's 3.0 and a win by him or Westwood would be the final stamp of Euro domination this year.
Westwood (12/1): No European has been closer more times and watching McDowell, McIlroy, and Clarke win majors has to motivate him to the point of obsession. His short game has never been quite good enough, but this venue should favor his shotmaking. Like Donald a win here would be the exclamation point for the Euro's, but like Donald I don't trust him at the end.
Mickelson (10/1): He let one get away at this course in '01, so the course owes him, but with logic like that don't most major venues owe him?
McIlroy (8/1): He is the logical favorite after his romp at the US Open and this course and setup should benefit him as much as someone born in Georgia. He struggled with the conditions at the British and frankly is better suited for play on the PGA tour. He doesn't need to join the PGA tour for anyone or anything, he needs to join because he plays better on "Americanized" course and not the links in Europe.
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