Who needs a playoff

Last weekend was the first good college football weekend; yes there were good games and interesting storylines prior to October 21^st, but last Saturday we finally saw some overrated undefeated big conference teams get exposed. Week after week I was stunned by so called "experts" penciling Oklahoma in the BCS title game, I kept asking myself if I was the only person to watch the Ok/FSU game, where Oklahoma struggled to put away an FSU team that made more errors than the Brewers in the NLCS and played the second half with their back-up quarterback? At the time FSU was thought to be a top 5 team, over the past couple of weeks they were proven to not be a top 5 team in the ACC. It was only a matter of time before Oklahoma was exposed and that it came at home to Texas Tech makes their faults even clearer.

Wisconsin took advantage of a terrible out of conference and early Big 10 schedule to look like world beaters until they played their first road game vs. a decent opponent (Mich St.). Was it really shocking to see the Wiscy defense shredded and Russell Wilson come up short? Wilson was a good off-season pick-up (transfer) for a team that desperately needed a QB, but this is the same Wilson that was .500 as a starting QB vs. BCS opponents at NC State.

Even more head scratching then these two results is the fact that the "experts" have now gone on to speculate on who will play the SEC champ in the BCS title game. I keep hearing about OK St, Stanford, Clemson, or even Boise; don't get me wrong I think they are good teams and would love to see the four of them matchup in BCS bowls (Clemson vs. Boise in the Orange and OK St vs. Stanford in the Fiesta), but none of them are in the class of LSU and Alabama.

There is a simple solution to this process that doesn't involve the scariest word for the NCAA, "playoff". The SEC, the most proactive, proud, and a little full of themselves conference should allow these two teams to met in the SEC title game after their regular season meeting November 5^th @ Alabama. They are head and shoulders above the rest of college football so it only makes sense that a rematch on a neutral field will be required after November 5^th. No one wants to see an overmatched sacrificial lamb like South Carolina or Georgia loss by 50 when the second best team in the country is getting ready for the Sugar Bowl. If they split the regular season and conference title game matchups then it only makes sense that the rubber match would be in the BCS title game. I am all for a playoff, but this year there is no need for one, the two best teams are obvious and 3 games featuring LSU/Bama would be great for college football and college football fans. With a dose of truth serum not even David Shaw (yes, that is Stanford's coach, ask 10 sports fans who Stanford's football coach is and I bet not half would say Shaw whereas everyone knows Duke legend Johnny Dawkins is their hoops coach), a man like Mike Gundy, or Dabo Swinney in his Rickie Fowler orange pants would say their teams are better than a one loss LSU or Alabama team. What would Vegas have to make the LSU/Bama winner vs. Stanford, Ok St, or Clemson? My guess is double digits

It happens all the time in other sports, the Cardinals and Brewers just finished the NLCS and the NFC title game last season was the third time Green Bay played Chicago and can't you just see the SEC (with a little push from CBS) upstaging every other conference title game by announcing an amendment to the conference by-laws that allows LSU a rematch with Bama on a neutral field? If LSU were to win that game each team would have one loss and with the human polls and computers (who rightfully love the SEC), they would be the top 2 teams in the BCS standings even with an undefeated ACC or PAC 10 team?

The conference that has won 5 straight BCS titles should have the guile to make this change and let the NCAA handle the complaints from the other conferences. All this conference expansion was supposed to make for better conference champions, but is anyone looking forward to Stanford/ASU, Wiscy/Mich St. (again) or Clemson/V Tech (again)? This answer is clearly no, but LSU/Bama parts 2 and hopefully 3 would be must see sporting events not just college football games.

When it is over

Yes, the NLCS was embarrassing it was a combination of every Brewers fan's biggest nightmare. The biggest concern all year was the inability of the Brewers to defend and that was on full display with the pitching staff's inability to miss any bats in the series. TBS' Ron Darling showed how little he knew about the Brewers when he blamed the defense on "being nervous". Without Carlos Gomez (who manager Ron Roenicke deemed only a defensive replacement against right handers) in CF, catcher Jonathon Lucroy is the only above average defender among the Brewers regulars and Fielder, Weeks, and Bettancourt are among the poorest defenders at their positions in the league.

The blame for the Brewers exit in six games goes beyond defense, only Randy Wolf notched a quality start, while Shawn Marcum set a record for highest ERA in a postseason and manager Ron Roenicke's decision to start Marcum in Game 6 met the qualification of insanity (doing the same thing over again and expecting a different result). The Brewers needed their starters to miss bats which they did consistently in the regular season, but against a powerful lineup like the Cardinals they were overmatched and in turn the defense proved what all Brewers fans knew they were (cue Denny Green).

The Brewers formula for success was power pitching and power hitting, but not only did the power pitching (most notably Gallardo and Greinke) fail to deliver in the NLCS so did the hitting. After a game 1 that saw the Brewers score 12 runs, they were never able to live up even half of that kind of production. The list of culprits is as long as the Brewers order as Corey Hart was essential benched for a game during the series and MVP candidates Braun (0-4 in game 6 and 0-4 in the series vs. Dotel) and Fielder (1-for his last 14 in the series) wilted when it mattered most. Manager Ron Roenicke's loyalty to Marcum put the Brewers in a hole in game 6 and his decision to start Kotsay in CF for game 3 was head scratching as well. I mentioned Roenicke's assessment of Gomez, which I also believe is a decision that will be proved incorrect in the future. Add it all up and it is hard to believe that the Crew was able to win two games in the series and there is no doubt the Cards deserved the trip to WS more than Milwaukee, but it was still a successful Brewers season.

In the offseason and at the deadline the Brewers and GM Doug Melvin made winning moves. As bad as Marcum was in the postseason, he was a key to their regular season division title. Marcum combined with Greinke, Gallardo, Wolf, and Narveson to lead the team to a 22-3 August where they played some of the best baseball the league has seen in years. With Prince Fielder in the final year of his contract, he played like a guy who wants to make 150 million and combined with the best player in the NL (Braun) to form the most potent 1-2 punch in baseball. Nyjer Morgan became a star, Corey Hart slugged from the leadoff spot and they survived a 2 month injury to All Star Rickie Weeks as K-Rod and John Axford anchored one of the top bullpens in the game. For a team that made a lot of changes in the offseason and was pegged as the third choice to win their division; 96 wins, a division title, and win the NL divisional round is a great season. If the Brewers would have lost to a 100 win Phillies team in the NLCS the focus would have been on a great regular season, but since the loss was to a division rival and a team that the Brewers finished 6 games ahead of during the season the focus has shifted to Milwaukee's deficiencies. There is a reason the Brewers haven't won this many games since 1982, winning baseball and Milwaukee don't go together, as time passes this team and season will rightfully be remembered as a success.

What took so long?

Did it really take John Fox and John Elway a day to name Tim Tebow their starting quarterback after Sunday's game? It only took Tebow one half to bring more excitement and hope (one dropped 2 point conversion pass from erasing a 18 point deficit and forcing San Diego to OT) to a franchise that had none under the leadership of the "John's" and Kyle Orton under center. That is right, NFL Hall of Fame QB John Elway and longtime coach John Fox decided to go with Kyle Orton at the beginning of the season over Tebow. Let's review how that worked out, a 1-4 record while Orton led the NFL in interceptions and continued his career long streak of showing as much emotion as a robot. Couldn't John Tesh and John C. Reilly have done a better job at running the Broncos than Elway and Fox? The Broncos organization is lucky the fans just rented a billboard and didn't storm their complex after this decision and the inevitable result.

If the "John's" were running Apple I am sure we would all be back to using typewriters, maybe they liked how Orton looks throwing to WR's in shorts without a defense, or maybe they wanted to show that they were the new bosses and not the guys who drafted Tebow, but either way sticking Tebow on the bench in favor of Orton shows how massive their egos are and how unqualified they are to run a NFL football team. If the idea is to win games, than Orton is about as useful as wings are to Penguins.

No 1^st round QB selection has ever taken as much heat before he even got a chance to play consistently than Tebow has, washed up "nobodies" like Merril Hoge and Mike Golic have been given a platform thanks to ESPN's 24/7 coverage of everything related to the NFL to take shots at a kid who hasn't even had a chance. Next time a talking head like Hoge, Golic, or Cowherd tries to turn football into brain surgery and bashes Tebow in the process remember the source and the fact that they have way too much time to fill and very little going on in their brains. You don't need to review the game tape from Sunday or understand anything about the mechanics of playing quarterback to see what changed for the Broncos when Tebow entered the game. The team began to move the ball against a legit Super Bowl contender in the Chargers and everyone from his teammates to the crowd began to get into the game. No other position in sports is counted on to be the leader of a team like a QB is, and if Hall of Fame player and coach Mike Dikta has never seen a winner or leader like Tebow then who I am to argue.

Maybe Tebow won't come out looking like Tom Brady throwing the ball in his next start, but he will no doubt give the Broncos a better chance to win than Kyle Orton does and he will get a chance to smooth the edges of his game while gaining valuable experience. The spread offense is prominently making its way into the NFL game and few are more capable of running that system than Tebow. Major questions have to be asked if Elway and Fox are the "brain-trust" and I use that term lightly to fully maximize Tebow's talents. I have never seen a winner lose and that is why I am not betting against Tebow, while I think the book is written on Orton and the first chapter is awful bad for Elway and Fox.

NHL preview by the odds

Let's take a look at the odds to win the Stanley Cup and the conference for the contenders. We will discuss each team's chance of coming through and where there is value and some teams that might be a little overvalued.

Vancouver (7/1) (7/2): The Stanley Cup runner ups were the best team in the regular season last year and had the advantage in the Cup finals up until Game 7 vs. Bruins. This season they will continue to be one of the best regular season teams, but losing PP quarterback Christian Ehrhoff will put pressure on Alex Edler or Kevin Bieksa to fill the void and continue to make the Canucks one of the best teams with a man advantage. Ryan Kesler will miss the first couple of months after offseason hip surgery, but should be ready and rested for the playoffs. The playoffs are where this team will be judged, especially Roberto Luongo and the Sedin's. Luongo is still too inconsistent to count on in crunch time and the Sedin's struggle in the playoffs when matched up against shutdown defensive pairs on a nightly basis. There are too many questions and not enough offensive depth and value on either of these lines to get behind the Canucks.

Washington (7/1) (4/1): Another team who dominates the regular season and comes up small in the spring. The Caps have never made it past the second round with this group and surprisingly stuck with Coach Bruce Boudreau after last year's embarrassing loss to the Bolts. The Caps took advantage of a buyers goaltending market to scoop up Tomas Vokoun on the cheap and by doing so addressed a major team weakness. Gritty forwards Troy Brouwer, Joel Ward, and Jeff Halpern were also added for playoff hockey, but the D-men continue to lean too much towards the offensive end and that is not a recipe for playoff success. You would think the Caps have to make it to the conference finals for Boudreau to keep his job, both of which I think are doubtful.

Boston (10/1) (11/2): The defending champs look better at this number than the two previously discussed teams, but history is against them as no team since the lockout has repeated as champs. Motivation is a hard thing to put your finger on, but the short off-season is not, and that will be the biggest challenge for this older team. The Cup winning team comes back virtually intact with only Recchi and Ryder not on the roster this season. I expect Rask to start about 30 games in an effort to keep the 38 year old Thomas as fresh as possible for another playoff run, but even at this number the history is too strong suggest a repeat.

Pittsburgh (10/1) (9/2): There is value at this number, but the giant question mark that hangs over the entire NHL and specifically the Pens is the return of Sidney Crosby after last year's concussion. If you believe Crosby will eventually play this season the Pens are a great value with a solid defense starting in net and multiple young scoring options up front. If Crosby is unable to overcome the concussion symptoms it is hard to see the Pens making a run even with a healthy Malkin and Jordan Staal trying to replace him. Easily the team with the biggest question surrounding the start of their season and in turn the value of their odds.

San Jose (10/1) (11/2): The first team and odds that I feel are undervalued. Like knocking over a soda machine winning in the NHL playoffs takes time and adjustments. The Sharks of the early 2000's were unable to build off their regular season's and lost early in the playoffs, but the last two seasons the Sharks are the only team to make it to the conference finals and beat Detroit in the process both times. Niemi proved to be the answer for San Jose in net last season and this offseason the Sharks traded for a potential franchise defenseman Brent Burns and a proven playoff scorer in Marty Havlat. They did have to give up regular season scoring in both deals losing Devin Setoguchi and Danny Heatley, but the moves were designed to win in the playoffs and I think both will contribute to that end. In 32 playoff games for the Sharks Heatley scored 5 goals, in Havlat's 26 prior postseason games he has scored 12. I like this team's balance, depth, and value.

Philadelphia (11/1) (5/1): In a league where consistency reins, Philadelphia went in the opposite direction and are the most interesting experiment in the league this season. Not many GM's would trade away their two best offensive players after making the Cup finals and second round in consecutive years, but in the process Philly has solved their goaltending problems which has been an issue for my lifetime. Along with Bryzgalov, the Flyers added Simmonds, Voracek, Talbot, Scheen, and Jagr in trades and pickups while losing Carter and team captain Mike Richards. How these offensive parts fit together will be a season long discussion, but the defense is aging and 36 year old Chris Pronger is coming off back and wrist surgeries. I give the Flyers credit for breaking from the mold and trying a new philosophy, but by the time the young offense comes into their own the aging blue line will be breaking down.

Chicago (12/1) (13/2): The second Western conference team I feel is undervalued. The Hawks could teach a class on the Cup hangover, but after a long offseason to re-charge their batteries and more depth a deep run should be in this team's future. With Crosby's future in doubt, Toews assumes the mantle as the best young captain in the game and with a healthy Sharp, Hossa, and Kane surrounding him offense should not be a problem. The biggest issues for the Hawks last season after injuries were a lack of depth and a #1 goaltender. The problems in net were solved by Corey Crawford, who outplayed Luongo in the first round last season, and is signed long term. The Chicago brass also went out and acquired Brunette, Carcillo, Mayers, Montador, and O'Donnell for depth and toughness which was key in the '10 cup winning run. Anything less than the conference finals will be a disappointment for this roster, making them a value at both of these numbers.

Detroit (12/1) (11/2): When you talk about Chicago you also have to mention Detroit, while Chicago is young and adding depth, the Wings are counting even more heavily than usual on a 41 year old Nick Lidstrom after the retirement of Brain Rafalski. Lidstrom winning the Norris trophy last season as a minus player proved that the trophy is a lifetime achievement award and though the Wings are set up front with Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Franzen, Holmstom, and Cleary, they are aging on the backline and look headed for the middle of the pack in tough Western conference.

Los Angeles (14/1) (6/1): Of all the offseason moves, the Kings made the best move by acquiring Mike Richards for Simmonds, Scheen, and a 1^st round pick. The Kings were already a difficult team to play against, and now with a center trio of Kopitar, Richards, and Stoll they will only be tougher. Their defense is balanced with offensive leaning players like Johnson and Doughty and stay at home types like Mitchell and Scuderi, and Quick and Bernier are as effective a 1-2 punch as any duo in the league. This team has all the makings of a contender and at these numbers have value even in a crowded Western conference.

Buffalo (18/1) (9/1): The first of two Eastern conference teams that I like at the same number. The Sabres have always been a tough grind it out team under Lindy Ruff, but with new owner Terry Pegula they finally have a budget to contend. Buffalo added Ville Leino to center their second line, Christian Ehrhoff to quarterback the power play unit, and in the most underrated move of the offseason they obtained rugged defenseman Robyn Regehr to restore order in their own end. Olympic hero Ryan Miller battled injuries last season, but there is still no one I would rather have in net for a must win game than the still in his prime 31 year old. Buffalo now has 3 offensively capable lines and a defense to help Miller and a trip to the Eastern conference finals is not out of reach making these numbers very appealing.

Tampa Bay (18/1) (9/1): GM Steve Yzerman and coach Guy Boucher proved last year in their first year together that they are formidable duo, so I believe with very little turnover this season they can go a little further than last year's trip to the conference finals. The big question for this team will be if 42 year old Dwayne Roloson can be the mainstay he was after being acquired midseason last year. Yzerman brought in Mathieu Garon as his back up and in Stevie Y I trust. Stamkos/St-Louis are among the best offensive duo's in the league and Vinny Lecavalier has taken to the second center role nicely. This team has the right mix of vets and young guys and with Boucher behind the bench they are worth the play at these numbers.

St. Louis (35/1) (18/1): Every year you need a longshot that has a chance if they get a few breaks and I like the Blues as that team this NHL season. They were on their way to the playoffs last season before the injury bug hit their team harder than any NHL team. The Blues shrewdly obtained Chris Stewart at last year's deadline and he combines with TJ Oshie, Backes, Berglund, McDonald, and Perron to form a versatile and potent top 6. Offseason veteran pickups Arnott and Langenbrunner will steady the third line and be invaluable in the locker room to a young team. The Blues were able to trade former 1^st overall pick Erik Johnson to Colorado for Chris Stewart and Kevin Shattenkirk due to the emergence of Alex Piertangelo, and Roman Polak as top flight defensemen who can play both ends of the ice. Jaroslav Halak had an up and down first year in St. Louis, but should benefit from stability and a better more consistent team in front of him this season and we know from his time in Montreal how much he relishes playoff hockey.