Let's take a look at the odds to win the Stanley Cup and the conference for the contenders. We will discuss each team's chance of coming through and where there is value and some teams that might be a little overvalued.
Vancouver (7/1) (7/2): The Stanley Cup runner ups were the best team in the regular season last year and had the advantage in the Cup finals up until Game 7 vs. Bruins. This season they will continue to be one of the best regular season teams, but losing PP quarterback Christian Ehrhoff will put pressure on Alex Edler or Kevin Bieksa to fill the void and continue to make the Canucks one of the best teams with a man advantage. Ryan Kesler will miss the first couple of months after offseason hip surgery, but should be ready and rested for the playoffs. The playoffs are where this team will be judged, especially Roberto Luongo and the Sedin's. Luongo is still too inconsistent to count on in crunch time and the Sedin's struggle in the playoffs when matched up against shutdown defensive pairs on a nightly basis. There are too many questions and not enough offensive depth and value on either of these lines to get behind the Canucks.
Washington (7/1) (4/1): Another team who dominates the regular season and comes up small in the spring. The Caps have never made it past the second round with this group and surprisingly stuck with Coach Bruce Boudreau after last year's embarrassing loss to the Bolts. The Caps took advantage of a buyers goaltending market to scoop up Tomas Vokoun on the cheap and by doing so addressed a major team weakness. Gritty forwards Troy Brouwer, Joel Ward, and Jeff Halpern were also added for playoff hockey, but the D-men continue to lean too much towards the offensive end and that is not a recipe for playoff success. You would think the Caps have to make it to the conference finals for Boudreau to keep his job, both of which I think are doubtful.
Boston (10/1) (11/2): The defending champs look better at this number than the two previously discussed teams, but history is against them as no team since the lockout has repeated as champs. Motivation is a hard thing to put your finger on, but the short off-season is not, and that will be the biggest challenge for this older team. The Cup winning team comes back virtually intact with only Recchi and Ryder not on the roster this season. I expect Rask to start about 30 games in an effort to keep the 38 year old Thomas as fresh as possible for another playoff run, but even at this number the history is too strong suggest a repeat.
Pittsburgh (10/1) (9/2): There is value at this number, but the giant question mark that hangs over the entire NHL and specifically the Pens is the return of Sidney Crosby after last year's concussion. If you believe Crosby will eventually play this season the Pens are a great value with a solid defense starting in net and multiple young scoring options up front. If Crosby is unable to overcome the concussion symptoms it is hard to see the Pens making a run even with a healthy Malkin and Jordan Staal trying to replace him. Easily the team with the biggest question surrounding the start of their season and in turn the value of their odds.
San Jose (10/1) (11/2): The first team and odds that I feel are undervalued. Like knocking over a soda machine winning in the NHL playoffs takes time and adjustments. The Sharks of the early 2000's were unable to build off their regular season's and lost early in the playoffs, but the last two seasons the Sharks are the only team to make it to the conference finals and beat Detroit in the process both times. Niemi proved to be the answer for San Jose in net last season and this offseason the Sharks traded for a potential franchise defenseman Brent Burns and a proven playoff scorer in Marty Havlat. They did have to give up regular season scoring in both deals losing Devin Setoguchi and Danny Heatley, but the moves were designed to win in the playoffs and I think both will contribute to that end. In 32 playoff games for the Sharks Heatley scored 5 goals, in Havlat's 26 prior postseason games he has scored 12. I like this team's balance, depth, and value.
Philadelphia (11/1) (5/1): In a league where consistency reins, Philadelphia went in the opposite direction and are the most interesting experiment in the league this season. Not many GM's would trade away their two best offensive players after making the Cup finals and second round in consecutive years, but in the process Philly has solved their goaltending problems which has been an issue for my lifetime. Along with Bryzgalov, the Flyers added Simmonds, Voracek, Talbot, Scheen, and Jagr in trades and pickups while losing Carter and team captain Mike Richards. How these offensive parts fit together will be a season long discussion, but the defense is aging and 36 year old Chris Pronger is coming off back and wrist surgeries. I give the Flyers credit for breaking from the mold and trying a new philosophy, but by the time the young offense comes into their own the aging blue line will be breaking down.
Chicago (12/1) (13/2): The second Western conference team I feel is undervalued. The Hawks could teach a class on the Cup hangover, but after a long offseason to re-charge their batteries and more depth a deep run should be in this team's future. With Crosby's future in doubt, Toews assumes the mantle as the best young captain in the game and with a healthy Sharp, Hossa, and Kane surrounding him offense should not be a problem. The biggest issues for the Hawks last season after injuries were a lack of depth and a #1 goaltender. The problems in net were solved by Corey Crawford, who outplayed Luongo in the first round last season, and is signed long term. The Chicago brass also went out and acquired Brunette, Carcillo, Mayers, Montador, and O'Donnell for depth and toughness which was key in the '10 cup winning run. Anything less than the conference finals will be a disappointment for this roster, making them a value at both of these numbers.
Detroit (12/1) (11/2): When you talk about Chicago you also have to mention Detroit, while Chicago is young and adding depth, the Wings are counting even more heavily than usual on a 41 year old Nick Lidstrom after the retirement of Brain Rafalski. Lidstrom winning the Norris trophy last season as a minus player proved that the trophy is a lifetime achievement award and though the Wings are set up front with Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Franzen, Holmstom, and Cleary, they are aging on the backline and look headed for the middle of the pack in tough Western conference.
Los Angeles (14/1) (6/1): Of all the offseason moves, the Kings made the best move by acquiring Mike Richards for Simmonds, Scheen, and a 1st round pick. The Kings were already a difficult team to play against, and now with a center trio of Kopitar, Richards, and Stoll they will only be tougher. Their defense is balanced with offensive leaning players like Johnson and Doughty and stay at home types like Mitchell and Scuderi, and Quick and Bernier are as effective a 1-2 punch as any duo in the league. This team has all the makings of a contender and at these numbers have value even in a crowded Western conference.
Buffalo (18/1) (9/1): The first of two Eastern conference teams that I like at the same number. The Sabres have always been a tough grind it out team under Lindy Ruff, but with new owner Terry Pegula they finally have a budget to contend. Buffalo added Ville Leino to center their second line, Christian Ehrhoff to quarterback the power play unit, and in the most underrated move of the offseason they obtained rugged defenseman Robyn Regehr to restore order in their own end. Olympic hero Ryan Miller battled injuries last season, but there is still no one I would rather have in net for a must win game than the still in his prime 31 year old. Buffalo now has 3 offensively capable lines and a defense to help Miller and a trip to the Eastern conference finals is not out of reach making these numbers very appealing.
Tampa Bay (18/1) (9/1): GM Steve Yzerman and coach Guy Boucher proved last year in their first year together that they are formidable duo, so I believe with very little turnover this season they can go a little further than last year's trip to the conference finals. The big question for this team will be if 42 year old Dwayne Roloson can be the mainstay he was after being acquired midseason last year. Yzerman brought in Mathieu Garon as his back up and in Stevie Y I trust. Stamkos/St-Louis are among the best offensive duo's in the league and Vinny Lecavalier has taken to the second center role nicely. This team has the right mix of vets and young guys and with Boucher behind the bench they are worth the play at these numbers.
St. Louis (35/1) (18/1): Every year you need a longshot that has a chance if they get a few breaks and I like the Blues as that team this NHL season. They were on their way to the playoffs last season before the injury bug hit their team harder than any NHL team. The Blues shrewdly obtained Chris Stewart at last year's deadline and he combines with TJ Oshie, Backes, Berglund, McDonald, and Perron to form a versatile and potent top 6. Offseason veteran pickups Arnott and Langenbrunner will steady the third line and be invaluable in the locker room to a young team. The Blues were able to trade former 1st overall pick Erik Johnson to Colorado for Chris Stewart and Kevin Shattenkirk due to the emergence of Alex Piertangelo, and Roman Polak as top flight defensemen who can play both ends of the ice. Jaroslav Halak had an up and down first year in St. Louis, but should benefit from stability and a better more consistent team in front of him this season and we know from his time in Montreal how much he relishes playoff hockey.
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