In typical MTV fashion they left us with a cliffhanger as last week's Challenge "Rivals" episode ended before the elimination round and we will have to determine the last male team in final 3 at the beginning of the season finale. Overall the season has been good even though the teams that made it to the finals are as predictable as the AL East standings. With that in mind the final "challenge" looks to be evenly matched with most of the big name teams still alive, so let's take a look at each team's odds to win the "grand prize".
Johnny/Tyler (8/1): These two were the big losers during the final male challenge day and their odds reflect that fact. Not only didn't they win and gain immunity and a trip to the Finals, but they lost a vote in which their "friends" forced them into a jungle against CT/Adam while giving Kenny/Wes a pass. Making it this far to face elimination is one thing, but having to beat CT will be quite another and they expressed their outrage after last week's vote. Tyler tried to play the "I expected more from my friends" card, while Johnny thought the voting results were "unfair" since his team won three challenges this season. Don't both arguments amount to Don King complaining that boxing is corrupt? Beating CT/Adam in a jungle and then winning the final challenge seems like too tall of an order even for a team that midseason looked like they could pass Ev/Paula as the team must likely to hook up and Johnny filing suit against "Entourage" over the nickname "Johnny Bananas" doesn't sound like something you would do if you just won $300,000.
Leroy/Mike (5/1): The rookies have been quite a story this year as it looked like Leroy would be eliminated after the first challenge win when his teammate Adam was kicked off the show for fighting, but the producers brought in his less athletic friend in Mike (easily the least athletic male or female in the game) and they are in the finals. Leroy showed his potential in this show with a dominant win in the last challenge which earned the team immunity and a trip to the finals. Anything less than a victory would have forced them into the jungle vs. CT, now they are playing with house money in the finals. Like the D'backs this team has shown their ability to compete and with Leroy as the team's Justin Upton (league MVP canidate) and Mike as the teams Daniel Hudson (better than expected) there is value in these odds. If they can hang around early, get a few puzzles, and Leroy continues his ascent… who knows?
Wes/Kenny (2/1): They were forced into the jungle more times with last place finishes in challenges (2) than they have challenge victories (1) and no player has taken a bigger hit to their challenge reputation than Kenny, but they survived and advanced and a win in the finals would change the discussion. This reminds me of the same talk surrounding the Lakers last year in the playoffs, but Wes/Kenny only need to put together one good final challenge. Teaming these "rivals" together has just made their alliance stronger and they clearly have the most "friends" in the game as the vote last week vs. Johnny/Tyler proved. This team looks desperate with Wes hooking up with Mandi after CT and Kenny crying when Evan was eliminated and selling out former teammate Laurel. Is this the year of karma, and can someone other male team play the role of the Mavs? I hope so.
CT/Adam (2/1): There are a few big factors working against this team. They have to beat Johnny/Tyler in a jungle prior to the finals and Adam continues to be more concerned with whether his competitors like him then trying to win with CT. Having said that, they also have CT, who is the only player who strikes fear in every other team as evidenced by Johnny/Tyler reaction when they had to face him in the jungle (memories of the last challenge are hard to shake). This team had looked strong in every challenge and jungle until last week, but I am betting a physical jungle is just what this team needs to get them ready for the finals. CT is the ultimate wildcard, when focused he is as formidable as an early Tyson, but he is also as unstable and self destructive. I guess that is the combo that makes each as enjoyable to watch, either way it is a good show.
Jenn/Mandi (5/1): They already defied the odds by winning a challenge this year (I had their total at -.5) and the change in format (not paying out 3rd place) affects them the most, but they have lived up to their lofty reputations this season. Mandi started out strong by hooking up with CT against the mob's wishes and then quickly made the move to Wes after CT moved on. While Jenn told everyone she wasn't interested in Adam even as she hooked up with him every night. I wonder what she does when she really likes someone? Both have had verbal fights with Cara Maria, Jenn one upped her partner by threatening to "murder" her and both know how to play the game of staying out of the jungle. They are modern day Roman women and what they lack in athletic ability they make up for with skinny dipping, stripper dance moves, and body shots. They provide the drama that keeps the season going even if they tend to take a back seat during the final challenge; their best bet is part of the final where they have to team up with a male team.
Laurel/Cara Maria (3/1): In two short challenges both have distinguished themselves, Laurel as one of the best competitors and someone you don't want to cross, and Cara Maria as someone everyone loves to pick on. Laurel came in to this challenge disliking Cara Maria, but has backed her up every time, most notably last week when she made Paula cry in record time and intimidated Wes to back off. Laurel gets my vote for the contestant who could go on to a successful career as a hit man after the show and if she and CT had a baby, the baby would be the real life John Conner. They are the most hated team on the show, but that seems to fuel them, particularly Laurel, and did in their jungle vs. Jasmine/Jonna. They are hated like the Heat, but feed off it in a way that Lebron and Wade were never comfortable doing. My only concern is their inexperience in a final challenge and if Cara Maria will be OK in a final challenge without Abe. When Cara called Abe last week and confirmed that they are still together, it gave me an idea for the next challenge, let's go couples with Wes/Mandi, Brad/Torri, Abe/Cara, Ty/Jasmine, Paula/Mike, Kenny/Johanna, Jenn/Adam, CT/Laurel and I am sure that is more that I am missing. They already have alliances so why not team them up with their love interest?
Ev/Paula (2/1): Paula as a favorite seems like betting on the Cubs, or an American winning a major, but like Keegan Bradley on an unknown leader-board in the PGA, maybe it is Paula's time with Ev as her partner. Ev gets the edge due to her experience and being a "pro" at this game, her work this year with Paula, who is as stable as Michael Beasley might be her best. There shouldn't be much in the final challenge that these veterans haven't seen before and if anyone is due it is Paula, but like Westwood in a major maybe she will want it too much.
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